Now 21 game into the season, it is a decent time to evaluate the team and individual players’ performance. The team evaluation could very much be labeled incomplete or N/A. Losing both goalies and also Jeff Skinner (who was the Canes best forward when he went out) for about half of the games makes it difficult to assess the actual/hoped for team (if all of it ever makes it into the lineup together).
Is this team doing incredibly well treading water despite the injury challenges and slow start from some top players and just ready to take off when a few players come back and a few things start clicking? Or is the team barely clinging to hope and only a couple bad weeks away from a death spiral at this point? I lean positive, but think you could make a reasonable argument for either given the roster situation and fuzzy set of facts that could support whichever case one chooses.
But forging forward with a ¼ mark evaluation with the data available, here are grades for the team and also individual players:
Team: B+. The Canes have played the toughest schedule in the NHL thus far. All 9 of the team’s Western Conference games and 17 of the 21 total games have been against teams that would be in the playoffs right now. Fully ½ of those games are with the #3 goalie in net and Skinner’s absence has also hurt. Yet the team sits tied for 3rd in the Metro Conference which would earn a playoff spot right now. Basically the team is about in the same situation it started the season tied with or close to the other teams chasing playoff spots. Overall that is decent anyway. When you consider the schedule and the injury challenges, it looks even better.
Cam Ward: C+. (Evaluated as starter) He seemed to be getting better when he was injured, but overall he was off to a slow start. His .910 save % and 2.89 GAA rank him 25th and 29th respectively amongst 40 goalies in the NHL who have played enough games to qualify. That is not good enough. For the Canes to have a shot at the playoffs, Ward needs to shake the rust off in the next few games and be at least an above average NHL goalie.
Anton Khudobin: A. (Evaluated as backup) The body of work is incredibly limited but he was 2-0 in 2 starts and played very well to win both tight games. Hopefully he can regain his form when he returns and continue to push for starts.
Justin Peters. A-. (evaluated as #3/depth) Evaluating him as a #3 goalie, I do not see how you could give Peters anything but an A. His 4-6-1 record is decent in itself but becomes even better when you understand the minimal goal support he has received. In the span of a few weeks, the Canes went from trying to win in spite of Justin Peters to winning with Justin Peters to winning because of Justin Peters. If my count is right, he was the 1st star in 3 wins and played a key role in all of the games in which the team earned points. Though I would like to give him credit for maturing into a solid NHL backup (you could make a case for that right now), my gut tells me that he is hot and also benefitting from a defense that has been good at giving him a chance on 1st shots and clearing the inevitable rebounds in front of him. But future trajectory aside, in his 11 games he has given his team a chance in all but a couple games and has managed to keep the team treading water which is all you can ask from a #3 goalie.
Eric Staal: D (evaluated as 1st-liner) He is scoring at about a 45-point pace. He (deservedly based on play early in the season) is bottom on the team at minus 12 and though it has subsided of late had a nasty habit of taking bad penalties at a nearly 1 per game rate early in the season. There have been signs of hope of late, and the defensive part of his game has been better, but for the Canes to compete for a playoff spot, Eric Staal needs to score more and again be a positive player like he was in 2012-13.
Alexander Semin: C+. (evaluated as 1st-liner) Fair or unfair, he gets tethered to Eric Staal a bit. The 2 have played the vast majority of the season on the same line, so to say 1 is not getting it done mostly drags the other into the conversation. This said, I think Semin’s game has been a bit better. His playmaking has been better than his point totals would indicate being held down by lack of finishing by other players. And his defense and compete level have been okay. But at the end of the day, a $7M top line forward needs to lead offensively. Semin is on target for a 3rd-linish 36 points which does not cut it for his role.
Jiri Tlusty: C (Evaluated as top 6 forward). His game has not been bad in terms of playing solid 2-way hockey. And I am not sure it was reasonable to expect him to match his 40-goal pace from the shortened 2012-13 season, but right now he is on target for 12 goals and 24 points. Playing with EStaal and Semin that number needs to about double, and while the line is obviously not clicking like last year, he has had a decent number of scoring chances but just is not finishing right now.
Jordan Staal: B- (Evaluated as 2nd-liner). To the positive, I think Jordan Staal has mostly righted the ship defensively. And in the past few games, he has been 1 of the Canes’ best players. Finally, I am on record as saying the goal differential not goals scored/points was a better measure for JStaal’s contribution playing against the other teams’ best and trying to break even. So his minus 1 is very respectable. But there are 2 negatives. First, he does need to score some, and his current 24-point pace is not enough obviously. Second, he is still trying to find his way on the penalty kill. It is not like he has been horrible, but pure production-wise his unit is just not getting it done shorthanded. (I wrote a whole blog about him that included this if you want to check the archives.)
Nathan Gerbe: A- (Evaluated as top 9 forward). Especially when you consider that he was originally signed to a 2-way contract to compete for a depth role, Gerbe’s contribution has been immense. He is on target for a very respectable 20 goals and 40+ points, but more significantly he has been incredibly consistent at bring effort and energy and just being a pain to play against on a nightly basis.
Patrick Dwyer: B- (Evaluated as top 9 forward). If you temper scoring expectations with historical reality, I think Dwyer has been okay, not great, so far this year. He is a proven 2-way forward who has always been light offensively and therefore fits better in a #9 or even 4th-line slot on a good team. But after last year’s struggles trying to blend 2 very different skill sets and styles of play in JStaal and Skinner and watching it flop horribly, Muller separated the 2 going more defense on JStaal’s line and freeing Skinner for cherry picking matchups to score. Until Skinner went out of the lineup due to injury it was working pretty well. So Dwyer just is not going to score 2nd-line type of points, but if he can hold up his end defensively, the hope is that the team can find enough offense elsewhere.
Tuomo Ruutu: D+ (Evaluated as top 6 forward). I think it is important to note 3 things upfront in evaluating Ruutu. First, coming off 2 hip surgeries and a supposedly separate lower body injury in preseason, it is reasonable to expect some delay on him getting up to speed. Second, with his 1st goal and gradually improving ability to get to and finish checks and pressure the puck, there are signs that he might finally be getting up to speed and ready to roll. Third, I have seen exactly nothing to suggest that the effort level is deficient. He continues to play hard. All of this said, Ruutu has not been good so far this season. Even a couple weeks past knocking the rust off, he was scoring nothing and more significantly just looked a half step slow getting to pucks, players or whatever. The scared part of me fears that years of his rugged style of play combined with the hip issues have cost him too much mobility such that he went from being a physical player with above average speed/mobility to more of the run of the mill big, physical 3rd-line grinder without enough skating ability to serve more than a ceiling-limited 3rd-line role. The optimist in me holds out hope that he is just starting to get up to speed and round into form.
Jeff Skinner: A (Evaluated as top 6 forward). At the point where he was injured, Jeff Skinner was the Canes best forward. Statistically, his nearly point per game pace was solid, but I think 2 other things were equally important. First, he was truly an offensive catalyst for both his line and the power play lifting up units not just himself. Second, his game was much improved defensively.
Elias Lindholm: C (Evaluated as top 9 forward). Lindholm made enough good plays to keep intact the hope for his future. And if I wanted to take the easy way out and be nice, I could just give him an incomplete due to time missed. But in evaluating what he did do (as a 2013-14 NHLer not a future prospect), it was not great. He never rose to the point where he was a difference-maker and the fact that he is playing in Charlotte right now while the Canes are short on forwards and having to plug in Mike Komisarek is telling. I am not sure whether to write it up to too high of expectations this summer or setbacks because of injury, but regardless he has not panned out to be the drop in top 9 forward as of yet.
Riley Nash: C+ (Evaluated as top 9 forward). The biggest thing for me with Riley Nash is his slot. If you slot him as a 4th-line center where not much is needed/expected scoring-wise, then I grade him much higher (B+ maybe). But with the miss on Lindholm who was originally expected to seize this slot and the arrival of Malhotra who is a good prototypical 4th-line center who is strong in the face-off circle, good defensively and a solid penalty killer, Nash seems entrenched in that C3 slot for now. Put simply, he is overslotted for that role due his limitations offensively. But to his credit, he has been a good, sound option for 2-way play and has also been decent on the penalty kill. The problem right now is that the Canes are overstocked with good 4th-line players (Bowman, Malhotra, Dvorak, Nash, Dwyer) who are good minus the need for offense.
Drayson Bowman: B (Evaluated as 4th-liner). Bowman is sort of the opposite of Nash. If I evaluate him in the 4th-line role that he has mostly served, I tend to grade him fairly favorably. He has developed into a pretty good 2-way forward who mostly avoids defensive mistakes. And for his current role, his 4 scoring points while not exciting are roughly adequate. But if I evaluate him next to Nash without regard to role, they are very similar in that they are playing decent 2-way hockey but are light offensively for anything more than a 4th-line role and 7-10 minutes of ice time per game. As an aside, Bowman has been 1 of the team’s best skaters over the past 4-5 games. I think he is 1 of the players on the current roster with significant upside if he could find a groove.
Manny Malhotra: A (Evaluated as 4th-liner). He is exactly what the Canes need and have lacked as a 4th-line role player. In my blog about him a little while back, I noted that the Canes are starting shifts with puck about 10 times more per game between Malhotra winning face-offs and a bit of a trickle down effect for the other centers seeing slightly more favorable face-off matchups. Malhotra has also been good on the penalty kill. Finally, his 20ish point scoring pace is okay for his role as a 4th-liner especially if he can continue to make the few goals count like his overtime game-winner that was good for a point in the standings.
Radek Dvorak: B+ (Evaluated as 4th-liner). Like Malhotra, Dvorak is a solid role player at this stage of his career. He gets credit for being able to fill in adequately just about anywhere. He had enough speed to hang when on Skinner’s line. He has fit nicely with Malhotra in more of a puck possession/defensive role. And in a 4th-line role, his 3 goals and 0 assists are okay production when coupled with pretty good 2-way play.
Kevin Westgarth: C+ (Evaluated as limited enforcer role and fill-in 4th-liner) Non-factor or N/A is what comes to mind first when trying to evaluate Westgarth. First, in limited duty he has done nothing to rate negatively in his role as policeman though interestingly he has not actually fought. But he also has done very little past that and seems to be less and less of a lineup consideration.
Chris Terry: C+ (Evaluated as offensive depth player). First to the positive, his shootout game-winner was HUGE. It very directly led to a point in the standings and could also help relieve pressure a bit on the team going forward in shootout games. That 1 play aside, I rate Terry as ‘Meh.’ His game at the lower levels is that of an offensively skilled player. In 6 games including some power play time, he has exactly 0 scoring points. While he has not been horrible, he has not been able to translate his AHL game to the NHL and produce anything. With the Canes struggling for scoring right now, one would hope that a player like him could inject a bit of offense.
My hope is to similarly evaluate the Canes defensemen at the ¼ mark of the season maybe as early as late Wednesday night.
What say you Canes fans? Is B+ right for the team's grade overall? Are there any players that you think I graded wrong? Is Ruutu getting ready to round into form, or has his style of play and injuries taken a permanent toll? Is there someone on the current roster who can hit another level and provide more scoring? A Lindholm return healthy and with confidence? Bowman? Or...?
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