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Wild Learning A Thing or Two About Themselves, Irrespective of Record

October 14, 2013, 4:04 PM ET [22 Comments]
Brad Ratgen
Minnesota Wild Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Wild fans have a tendency to be a bit bi-polar. And while their fragile condition is not weather induced, they/we do seem to ride the highs and lows right with our team.

What else do we have besides the beginning of a WNBA Dynasty? Other than the two-time World Champion Minnesota Lynx, the Vikings, Twins and Timberwolves all suck.

Thus far into the Wild’s season, the Wild are right around where they finished last year, currently the 15th best team in the NHL. In our new division, the Central, we are currently 4th, tied with Winnipeg at 6 points; 2 points ahead of both Dallas and Nashville, 1 point behind Chicago, 2 points behind St. Louis and 4 points behind Colorado.

Many prognosticators, including myself, only see the top 3 teams in the Central making the playoffs. Thus, while it is still early in the season, it’s never too early to start watching the standings.

With 6 points thus far this season, the Wild are tied with Vancouver for 9th place in the Western Conference. Granted, it will be easier to make the playoffs in the West with Columbus and Detroit both crossing over to the East. Notwithstanding, you still need to be top 8 in your conference to make the post-season.

Given it’s so early in the season, though, lets throw all that out the window and take a look at what the Minnesota Wild are finding out about themselves so far this young season.

First, it appears that they are able to skate and play with any team they are up against, given the fact that 4 out of their first 5 games this season were all decided by 1 goal (3-2 SOL to Kings; 4-3 OTL to Ducks; 3-2 L to Preds; 2-1 W over Jets and 5-1 W over Stars).

Second, the Wild’s puck possession theory is starting to pay dividends despite not being readily apparent when watching their games. What I mean is this. Coming into this season, Mike Yeo and company were preaching a new offensive style of puck possession versus the same old dump and chase we Wild fans have been witness to for years. Sounds good right? Absolutely.

But, to succeed, you have to have the puck to begin with. So far this season, the Wild’s centermen have been tearing up the face-off stats. The Wild currently lead the NHL in faceoff win percentage at 58.4% thanks to Zenon Konopka (who has won 30 of 43 draws this season, good for 69.8%), Kyle Brodziak (who has won 50 of 81 draws, good for 61.7%) and Mikko Koivu (who has won 66 of 107 draws, good for 61.7%).

Then, it’s what you do with the puck when you get it. On the power play, the Wild are lights out having registered 7 goals so far this season. However, at full strength (5-on-5), the Wild are not tearing it up in the goal scoring department and it hasn’t been for lack of chances. At 5-on-5, the Wild have scored a meager 7 goals this season, good for 21st in the NHL stats of goals for. However, they have done a bit better in the shot department, registering 121 shots, good for 17th in the NHL stats for shots and were averaging 31.7 shots per 60 minutes of regulation play, good for 9th in the league, again all stats based on even strength (5-on-5).

However, where they are really seeing success (and Jacques Lemaire would be most proud of these stats) is on the defensive side of the puck. They have only allowed 63 shots against, 1st in the NHL, averaging 16.5 shots against per 60 minutes of regulation play. Given how the Wild goaltenders usually play at or around the level of their defensemen, it comes as no surprise that the Wild’s goaltending save percentage was at 95.2%. (All stats based on even strength, 5-on-5).

So, the Wild are still a defensive oriented team. However, it appears that they are enhancing their defensive stats not necessarily by the play of the blue liners, but by the fact that their centers are winning faceoffs and the Wild are not constantly turning over the puck, rather hanging on to it for longer periods of time than their opponents, thereby decreasing the amount of opportunity their opponents get with the puck in the Wild’s defensive zone.

The long awaited credit to the Wild’s offense is long overdue. So much so that the lead in the game notes from the Wild’s PR staff is the stat that “Minnesota joins San Jose as the only team to outshoot its opponent in ever game this season, including a 65-25 advantage in the second period. Entering play Sunday, Minnesota leads the NHL in fewest shots against/game (21.4) and ranks ninth in shots/game (32.4).

All that is needed now is for the Wild to either produce a natural goal scorer from within their ranks or go get one in the trade/free agency market. This is where Thomas Vanek enters the equation. In Sunday’s newspaper, I was surprised to see how good of friends Pominville was with Vanek. So much so that they were neighbors and Vanek drove Pominville to the airport when he was traded from Buffalo to Minnesota at the trade deadline. After reading that, I could almost here their conversation replay in my head.

Vanek: Wow, Minnesota, huh?

Pominville: Yep.

Vanek: They really look like they’re going somewhere if Zach and Ryan both chose to you there, huh?

Pominville: Yep.

Vanek: Lucky bastard. Take me with you and get me out of this s*** hole.

Pominville: That’s the plan, brother. That’s the plan.

If a goal scorer is what the Wild want/need. Then Thomas Vanek is their guy. Vanek is currently tied with Craig Ramsay for 5th most goals in Sabres franchise hisotry and is 16 goals short of 3rd place, all time. Vanek is also better than a point per game player during the first 10 games of each season and has never finished the first 10 games of a season with fewer than 7 points. In fact, last season, he had 21 points (10 goals and 11 assists) in 10 games and 15 points the prior season in the first 10 games. Last season, he ended up at a point per game pace for the second time in his career with 41 points (20 goals and 21 assists) in 38 games.

While Vanek is most likely the next target for the Wild, don’t let the Sabres of this season fool you. Like the Wild, they tend to be in most games. In fact, in their games so far this season, 4 of 6 games have been decided by 1 goal. Unfortunately, the Sabres have yet to win a game in any fashion this season. However, the same can be said of the Wild for road games this season, having lost their only road game in Nashville, again by 1 goal. On top of that, you look at some of the teams that Sabres have lost to by 1 goal and it sort of puts you on your heels a bit (Detroit, Ottawa, Tampa Bay and Chicago).

The main difference between the Sabres and the Wild goes back to the shots for and shots against analysis. The Wild have registered 54 shots and allowed 41 shots in the first period; 67 shots for and 25 shots against in the second period; and 39 shots for and 34 shots against in the third period. Meanwhile, the Sabres have had 51 shots for and 86 shots against in the first period; 48 shots for and 72 shots against in the second period; and 56 shots for and 62 against in the third period.

The Wild are always on the winning side of the shots-for vs. shots-against while the Sabres are not. For me, that most explains why the Wild are 7 goals for and 3 goals against while the Sabres are only 4 goals for and 11 against. Maybe a bit too simplistic. But, then again, maybe not.

Besides faceoffs tonight, also look at the special teams game as the game within the game. The Wild are 5th in the NHL on the powerplay having scored 7 times on 23 attempts. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 4th in the NHL on the penalty kill having only allowed 2 goals in 20 attempts while playing a man short. On the converse side, both teams suck (i.e. the Sabres are 27th on the power play and the Wild are tied for 27th on the penalty kill).

Starting goaltender, Josh Harding, who is playing in relief of an injured Niklas Backstrom, has not allowed an even strength goal yet (provided you don’t count the penalty shot that he faced immediately after coming in for Backstrom as an even strength goal, which I know it is, but really shouldn’t be in my opinion; nothing even strength about that sort of opportunity).

So there you have it Wild fans. Hopefully everything in the State of Hockey is calmer after 2 home wins recently. Time to see what the Wild have on this first extended road trip of the year. Tonight in Buffalo. Tomorrow in Toronto. Should be fun. Remember, puck drops an hour earlier as the games are being played on the east coast.

*A special stick tap to long time reader Chinaski who tipped me off to the website extraskater.com for the 5-on-5, even strength stats.
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