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Alec Martinez and Daniel Carcillo, Difference Makers? |
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Since the back to back losses to Winnipeg and the Rangers in the second and third games of the season, the Kings have made a nice little turnaround and gone 3-0. There was a noticeable difference in the team's sharpness, speed, and support of each other on ice. So what changed?
Obviously two, maybe not big, but minor changes in personnel happened with Alec Martinez replacing Jake Muzzin and Daniel Carcillo replacing Colin Fraser. We also saw a line swap with Jarret Stoll moving to the fourth line, with Trevor Lewis centering the third line with Clifford and Matt Frattin.
Now on the surface it seems like a lateral change, but when you start getting into advanced stats and maybe just some eyeball tests it is making a pretty big difference.
First off the new bottom lines seem to be working quite well. No offense to Colin Fraser, but with Lewis slotting in at 3C and Stoll at 4C that gives the Kings four multi-dimensional centers on every line, and two on the bottom lines that excel in the defensive aspects of the game. Strength down the middle. Secondly, regarding centers, this has jumped out to me over the first few games. The Kings have been massacring teams in the circle thus far losing only two games in terms of faceoffs. Those two games? The Minnesota Wild game, and the New York Rangers game. Those are the two games this season in which arguably the Kings looked like they truly lacked possession. Go figure they lost a majority of their draws those nights. Furthermore, on an individual level, Kopitar and Richards are hovering around 55-percent, Stoll surprisingly is the lowest with 49-percent, and Trevor Lewis, Colin Fraser, and Jeff Carter are coming in at 60-percent, 65-percent, and a staggering 70-percent respectively (Carter chill out you don't have to do EVERYTHING the best.)
With that out of the way let's look at the differences individuals like Martinez and Carcillo have made as opposed to Jake Muzzin and Colin Fraser. It seems like a lateral move, but really there are little changes here and there that have had an impact.
On the surface you look at style. Carcillo is obviously a more grinding and agitating forward that plays with a much bigger edge and attitude than Colin Fraser. Fraser is a worker, and he'll grind and muck it up in the corner, but in terms of getting under the skin of an opponent Carcillo would be head and shoulders above the rest. I felt the Kings really lacked an attitude and a fire in the first couple of games, and Carcillo brings an excessive amount of those. He also brings more offensively to the table, albeit by a little. Carcillo has twice had over 20 points and 10 goals, and was also on pace for a career year in 2011-12 with the Blackhawks, scoring 11 points in 28 games before ending his year with a torn ACL. He has done all this primarily as a third/fourth line player. Fraser has never surpassed 20 points or 10 goals in the better part of five seasons in the NHL. Carcillo is arguably the more defensively responsible of the two to a degree as long as he isn't putting his team behind with penalties. Overall, his addition allows the Kings to slide one of Lewis or Stoll into his position, and when it comes down to choosing Lewis, Stoll, or Fraser the choice becomes obvious.
Martinez is a more all around defenseman compared to Jake Muzzin. Muzzin has good offensive abilities but seems to be lacking a step in the defensive zone and with his foot speed. Martinez is a strong skater, and while maybe isn't as threatening in the offensive zone is a much more simple and responsible defenseman. He does not crack under pressure from opposing forwards and that seems to be a giant contradistinction between the two players. Muzzin has really felt the pressure of opposing forwards and tends to make questionable decisions when put under the gun. Martinez impressed many with his simple, yet effective decisions with the puck when he first came up three years ago and it continues to be one of his best qualities. .
These differences become even greater between these personnel decisions when you bring in some more statistics. Muzzin and Fraser are dead last on the team in overall team save-percentage when they are on the ice, sliding in at a .667 and a .883 respectively. Both of them were also playing rather protected minutes when you look at the Corsi Quality of Competition statistic. Muzzin was playing, on average, the weakest rated opposing players, and Fraser was in the bottom three for forwards. Both Muzzin and Fraser bring up donuts in team on-ice shooting percentage when they are on the ice. Which means there is absolutely no offense going on with these guys on the ice. Also the off-ice Corsi for both is on the bottom rung for the team, meaning the team does better with them off the ice. There are also little things like that are interesting, like Colin Fraser getting 90% of his shifts start in the offensive zone but only 60% finishing there. I digress though, and as a whole these aren't very good stat lines in terms of advanced stats for either player.
So how do Carcillo and Martinez compare? Well, first off they don't play the big minutes against the best opponents but they haven't been playing the worst opponents. They have middle of the pack Corsi ratings. The goals For while they are on the ice are the two highest on the team. Their goals against while on the ice are in the bottom three of the team. They are highest in team save percentage when on the ice, and they are also the highest in team shooting percentage with them on the ice. Carcillo also has a positive zone start time with 70-percent of his shifts starting in the defensive zone, and 73-percent ending in the offensive zone. Also important with Carcillo's style, he has drawn the most penalties on average of any King player so far while taking the fewest. It's not mind blowing stuff from these two but it is a significant step up from the teammates they replaced in the lineup.
Now these are ALL very very very subjective stats, and this is a very small sample size. However, you can't argue with results...at least thus far. If you want to put it in simple eyeball tests Muzzin was struggling, no doubt. The speed of the game was visibly bothering him and he was making far too many turnovers. Fraser wasn't exactly setting the world ablaze either. Martinez has stepped in and made a significant difference in calming the Kings bottom pairing with Matt Greene. Carcillo came in and replaced Colin Fraser, and has brought with him an attitude and responsibility. He's also chipped in offensive with a goal and an assist so far. He's allowed the Kings some roster shifting which makes them stronger down the middle without losing quality at the wing.
Advanced stats-wise, surface wise, both have been difference makers for the Kings so far. Even though they aren't the biggest of names or the most important of additions, I believe the Kings proved in the past that additions to the roster, be it noteworthy player or not, can make a huge difference. Remember Dwight King and Jordan Nolan stepping in during the 2011-12 stretch run and post-season? Big additions from small players. Hopefully the good run of form for Carcillo and Martinez can continue and the Kings can further their winning ways. It's a long season with a lot that can still happen from these young stages to the final stretch run.
It's tiny little things like this though that make hockey an interesting game. Twenty men dress a night, and any one or two can make a significant difference. All the way from Pavel Datsyuk and Brad Richards to Andrew Shaw and Brooks Laich. Everyone has an impact.
Los Angeles Kings Blogger • 
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