In every man’s life, there are a number of rules or guidelines that should be followed to ensure health, happiness, and general well-being. One of the most important is the standard creepiness rule, more commonly known as the half-age-plus-seven rule. It’s a time-honored rule that every man should live by. A friend brought it into play recently, after discovering that I had been seeing a woman who was 24 years of age, as well as a woman who was 44 years of age.
The standard creepiness rule states that you shouldn’t date someone who is younger than half your age plus seven. On the other side of the spectrum, subtracting your age by seven and doubling that number gives you the maximum age you can date without being the victim of a creepy dragon. Since I’m 32, it’s socially acceptable for me to date women as young as 23 or as old as 50, so the 24- and 44-year-olds were within my standard range.
As an Edmonton Oilers fan/blogger/lover, I’m often asked by those unfamiliar with the sport how the team is doing. The question usually sends me into a long-winded diatribe about the things I’m happy with (Gordon, faceoff percentage, Perron, power play, arena deal, Nugent-Hopkins’ return, etc.) and the things I’m not happy with (Dubnyk, shot disparity, Gagner’s jaw, playoff drought, Dubnyk, defensive turnovers, Dubnyk, etc.) Usually the person was just asking to be polite, and had to endure a rant rather than receiving a succinct answer.
In order to simplify my answer, and accurately gauge my feelings about the Oilers, I’ve created the standard happiness rule. Basically, it takes the standard creepiness rule and applies it to hockey. I think we can all agree that the Oilers’ primary goal should be making the playoffs this season, and based on data from the last five seasons we can get a pretty strong indication of the point total that will be required to make that goal a reality.
Here are the point totals for the Western Conference’s eight-place team for the last five seasons:
2008-09: 82 games, 91 points
2009-10: 82 games, 95 points
2010-11: 82 games, 97 points
2011-12: 82 games, 95 points
2012-13: 48 games, 55 points (which projects out to 94 points in an 82-game schedule)
Those figures show us that the Western Conference’s eighth-place team has averaged 94.4 points during the last five seasons. That means that the Oilers will have to compile approximately 94.4 points in order to contend for a playoff spot this season. The higher above that number they are, the better chance they have of playing past 82 games. Correspondingly, the lower they finish below 94.4 points, the worse their chances of making the postseason.
For comparison’s sake, here are the Oilers’ point totals during the last five seasons:
2008-09: 82 games, 85 points
2009-10: 82 games, 62 points
2010-11: 82 games, 62 points
2011-12: 82 games, 74 points
2012-13: 48 games, 45 points (which projects out to 77 points in an 82-game schedule)
As you can see, the Oilers haven’t even been within shouting distance of the playoffs during the last five seasons. This season, if the team hopes to finish with at least 94 points, it will have to average 1.146 points per game during the course of the 82-game schedule. That’s no small feat when you consider the Oilers’ recent history, but it is a realistic goal for a team that many project to be on the upswing after years of tenancy in the basement of the Western Conference.
The standard happiness rule uses the following formula:
Games played + (games played/7)
For instance, once the Oilers reach the 50-game mark you can apply the formula to see if they’re meeting their expectations or not. Plugging in the number, 50+(50/7), we find that the Oilers will need to have approximately 57 points at the 50-game mark in order to be on pace for 94. However, the formula can be applied at any time during the season to give an accurate indication of whether or not you should be happy with the team’s overall performance.
Let’s plug in the team’s current total and see where we stand:
Standard happiness rule: 3+(3/7) = 3.428
Current point total: 2
Standard happiness rule disparity: -1.428
Obviously we’re dealing with a very small sample size, and the numbers would be dramatically different if the Oilers had either a) protected their two-goal lead against the Winnipeg Jets, or b) failed to rally for a victory over the New Jersey Devils. In each case, Oiler fans would have reason to either be a) much happier and optimistic than they currently are, or b) much more depressed and grumpy than they are at the moment.
Maybe you’re perfectly happy either way, waking up with a smile on your face and spring in your step whatever the circumstances might be. Perhaps you just enjoy the game of hockey, regardless of whether your team wins or loses, as long as it’s entertaining and nobody gets hurt. In that case, I’ll direct you to one of the many Calgary Flames blogs on the site, where you’ll find many like-minded individuals.
Getting back to reality, we have this evening’s contest with the Montreal Canadiens. The standard happiness rule will tell you that tonight’s game is an absolute must-win, especially when you consider the fact that the Oilers embark on a six-game road trip afterward. Not only will they face a lengthy road swing, but each of those six games comes against a playoff team from last season. Putting points in the bank and taking advantage of winnable games on home ice will be crucial for this team moving forward.
The standard happiness rule can also provide realistic expectations for the team going forward. For instance, let’s plug in the number at the conclusion of the Oilers’ six-game road trip.
Standard happiness rule: 10 + (10/7) = 11.428
Since the Oilers currently have two points, that means they’ll need to pick up at least nine points in their next seven games (tonight included) to keep up with the playoff pace. Can they do it? Time will tell, but at least you have an impartial system to lean on whenever someone asks how the club is doing. Ultimately, this is a much better system than looking at the performance of other teams and trying to compare, or looking at the standings and getting nauseous trying to imagine the Oilers leapfrogging seven other teams.
We’ve all known a guy who’s tried to deviate from the standard creepiness rule, offering up excuses about a woman being “mature for her age” or “too hot to ignore.” Don’t let it happen to you, my friends. Both the standard creepiness rule and standard happiness rule are to ensure your health, happiness, and general well-being… both in life and in hockey.
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