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Top-10 Prospects : Stars (1-10) |
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Dallas made major changes again by bringing in expected wunderkind Jim Nill who has been a major part of the fantastic Detroit Red Wings staff since 1994 when he became their Director of Player Development. He made some pretty bold picks in his first ever draft as a General Manager...only time will tell if they were right. He certainly made his mark with the trade for Tyler Seguin and Rich Peverley (plus ECHL defender Ryan Button) that sent prospects Joe Morrow, Reilly Smith and Matt Fraser along with Loui Eriksson. The prospect pool is pretty top-heavy right now, but that should be expected as the trio above that were dealt were all in their top-10 previously. The one thing I really like is that the Stars have done a really nice job in finding bigger players that can play, I didn’t plan this out but on review nobody is under 6’2 in their top-10 and in the notables each player is over 6’0…very rare.
As per usual this list doesn’t include players with 50+ NHL game experience or a player who played the vast majority of this shortened year and became a “legitimate NHLer.” So for this Cody Eakin, Brenden Dillon and Antoine Roussel are off the list.
1. Valeri Nichushkin : Right Wing, 10th Overall, 2013, 18 years old, 6’4 204lbs, Traktor Chelyabinsk in the KHL
I’ve written extensively on Nichushkin and tried to temper some of the expectations of people who didn’t watch him in the MHL or KHL, or even the U18’s. If you want to read those you can check out my Mock Draft stuff or anything labeled as “Russian Prospects” as I go into a lot more depth. Nichushkin went right around where I expected him to go, this odd late season push where everybody was putting him ahead of Barkov or Drouin for the 3rd slot was ridiculous. Regardless he is simply put the most exciting package of tools coming out of this draft. He is an elite…beautiful skater and probably the best natural skater in the draft after MacKinnon. At 6’4 he skates like Carl Hagelin in the body of Milan Lucic which makes him very hard to deal with. He has an elite shot off the rush and that is primarily where he generates his offense through a burst of speed and an excellent shot from around the circle. He can play physical at times (ask Wotherspoon) but that is an aspect of his game that is still inconsistent, if he amounts to being a “power forward” it will be more in terms of a puck protector. He’s known as a bit of a puck hog at times and I noticed that especially in the MHL against weaker opposition he would try far too many end to end rushes all alone. Is he NHL ready is the big question? In my opinion yes in terms of offensive game, size and skating, but defensively and consistency wise he still has work to do on his game. However because of his tri-pronged ultimatum of NHL or KHL (No junior leagues for either North America or Russia) you have to expect that the Stars will keep him, ink him to a three year deal and make sure that option of staying in Russia is mostly abolished. This is a prospect where the teams are looking at in the future when he is 6’4-6’5 240lbs of elite skating monstrosity. He had two goals in the Stars pre-season opener.
Potential : Top-Line Winger
2. Jamie Oleksiak : Defenseman, 14th Overall, 2011, 20 years old, 6’7 254lbs, Texas Stars in the AHL
Oleksiak like every massive defenseman is an intriguing player…sometimes simply because they are giants, though for me it was the fact that he was 6’7 243 when he was drafted which is really strange for an 18 year old. It’s hard to put a pin on what kind of defenseman he actually is, but he has been rounding into a fairly solid two-way guy…though more importantly is that the once described “gentle giant” has embraced the shift of style he had to make in the OHL and now is a very physical player. He’s pretty mobile, especially for his size with that ridiculous wing span. His offensive upside which was one of the hidden gems when drafted have steadily developed including a very strong rookie debut in the AHL. He’s solid at both ends of the ice and while not a PP QB he has shown he can be a good compliment to a man advantage. The only problem is that Oleksiak is prone to some really weird decisions. Poor passes or miscues every now and then were something that followed him in junior and even into the AHL. Every player makes mistakes; it just seems that when he does the puck ends up in the back of the net. He’s only 20 though and the upside is still very high. Next season he will either make the Stars or…the…Texas Stars…
Potential : Top-Four Two-Way Defenseman
3. Brett Ritchie : Right Wing, 44th Overall, 2011, 20 years old, 6’3 209lbs, Niagara IceDogs in the OHL
Ritchie is fast rising as an extremely impressive prospect. He was plagued with expectations and inconsistency in Sarnia before making the move to Niagara where he and Ryan Strome found some kind of bromance together. He was one of the breakout players in the OHL getting himself an invite to the U20’s for Canada and later having a very strong showing in the AHL. He plays a power forward game with a lot of offensive skill. He’s very deadly on the cycle and forecheck. He’s a PP specialist that can make dangerous plays with or without the puck as he loves to get around the net. His skating is the only concern as he’s just average in that area; he’s not really expected to lead the rush. Sometimes defensive consistency and the physical aspect of his game can be questioned, and that is still a work in progress. Next season he will play in the AHL and try to prove that this sudden breakout of his offensive talents is not simply tied to the incredibly talented Strome centring him.
Potential : Top-Six Scoring Forward
4. Alex Chiasson : Right Wing, 38th Overall, 2009, 22 years old, 6’3 205lbs, Texas Stars in the AHL
Chiasson had a pretty good start to his NHL career…6 goals in 7 games…not bad not bad. This was his rookie season as a pro and was playing fairly well in the AHL before the call-up. His greatest strength is his shot and hand-eye around the net. He has a big slap shot. It makes him very versatile in the offensive zone as he can and will score from anywhere. While he has a lot of skill and hustle, he has one significant issue, his skating is pretty slow and he takes a while to get up to speed. That kind of thing hurts the fact that he does try very hard to get involved physically on the forecheck and backchecks hard…because well, you have to catch the opponents first. While the amazing start has the hype really up there, I think it would be prudent to sort of temper expectations for Chiasson as neither…nor really anybody in the NHL are going to be goal per gaming anytime soon. He’s expected to make the Stars out of camp.
Potential : Top-Six Power Forward
5. Radek Faksa : Centre/Left Wing, 13th Overall, 2012, 19 years old, 6’3 203lbs, Kitchener Rangers in the OHL
Faksa along with the majority of the Rangers were in a season long funk offensively especially given the talent that squad fielded. After a strong rookie campaign that saw him lead the OHL rookie scoring race in all three categories, he really took a step back offensively along with the rest of the Rangers managing only 31 points in 39 games while also not having the kind of tournament expected out of him in the U20’s. Here are the good points however. Faksa is a versatile player that can lineup at centre or wing as easily, he’s a strong skater who is a hard working two-way guy that is a penalty killing expert. His abilities as a defensive player are notable, just some questions about his upside, especially from the position he was drafted in. He’s not really all that creative and that is a bit of a worry. Next season he will play his final OHL season and really have a lot to prove with Puempel, Murphy, Leivo and Rieder who were the Rangers driving offense leaving.
Potential : Third Line Shutdown Centre
6. Jack Campbell : Goalie, 11th Overall, 2010, 21 years old, 6’2 185lbs, Texas Stars in the AHL
One of the most hyped goalies in recent memory, Campbell’s international body of work is simply fantastic, while his domestic play is slightly…worrying. An U17 Best Goaltender award, an U18 and an U20 highlight his accomplishments for the USA including being the hero for the Gold winning squad that snapped Canada’s record run. His OHL play was bad, and people were really questioning him, but a pretty strong season as a split-starter in Texas have brought hope back for him. He’s very athletic and plays the butterfly style. He’s got great balance and reflexes while still maintaining decent rebound control. There are still questions just like there are with any goalie prospect as they are the hardest to predict. At 11th overall was it a mistake? It’s still early, but as recent draft trends are showing, organizations are becoming warier of using early picks on goalies as the expectations are almost never met. Next season he will play in the AHL again.
Potential : Starting Goalie
7. Alexander Guptill : Left Wing, 77th Overall, 2010, 21 years old, 6’3 198lbs, University of Michigan in the NCAA
Guptill led Michigan in goals and points again having a very strong second season in the NCAA with less help than his first season. He was the CCHA Rookie of the Year the season before and his combination of raw skill and size is a nice compliment. He took the long road of development opting to go through the OJHL, USHL before the NCAA, something a few Canadian players try, but certainly it’s a longer path than major junior. While he has a lot of offensive creativity, flashes some power game and is generally a strong skater, his defensive game leaves a lot to be desired. He needs major work in that area to sniff the NHL. Luckily he’s still got 2-3 years of development before he should be expected to start finding a place on the Stars. Next season he plays again for Michigan.
Potential : Second Line Power Forward (or bust if he can’t figure out defense)
8. Jason Dickinson : Centre/Left Wing, 29th Overall, 2013, 18 years old, 6’2 176lbs, Guelph Storm in the OHL
Why draft an offensive forward who was so wildly inconsistent that he managed only 47 points in 66 games only a 5 goal and 12 point increase on his rookie campaign? Well, because Dickinson’s raw talent level is extremely high and taking the kind of Detroit drafting method they are hoping development can polish off of the stains of his game. He’s an agile skater who is very deceptive with his first steps. His major strength is that he has magic hands and unbelievable creativity and dangles. The puck is on a thread when he holds it and he’s shown a willingness to make high risk clever maneuvers through the neutral zone. He’s still extremely thin and lanky which makes his physical game a bit of roll of the dice as sometimes he’s just manhandled. I wasn’t a big fan of the pick so early, I thought like a guy like Jankowski that it was more of a homerun pick you use a second rounder on…but I’m not a GM so who really cares? The minors are filled with danglers that could never take their game to the next level, so he’ll have to evolve. Next season he plays in Guelph again and has a lot to prove.
Potential : Second Line Scorer or Bust
9. Matej Stransky : Right Wing, 165th Overall, 2011, 20 years old, 6’2 216lbs, Saskatoon Blades in the WHL
A skilled shoot first power forward, Stransky has had two solid WHL seasons after a disappointing rookie campaign in the new environment made him fall in the draft. Two straight years he has led the Blades in points (tied this past season) and was first, then second in goals scored. He’s a pretty physical forward and with a pretty much NHL frame he was able to power through players in the WHL and strike for the net. He has a great shot, he shows some nice creativity…but his skating is still a big issue. He’s a sluggish skater and that has affected his defensive game as if he is over aggressive in the offensive zone he can’t get back. He still has a lot of development left to get his all-around game to where it needs to be, but the raw skills are there. He’ll play with the Texas Stars next season.
Potential : Second Line Power Forward (Lots of questions however)
10. Patrik Nemeth : Defenseman, 41st Overall, 2010, 21 years old, 6’3 212lbs, Texas Stars in the AHL
Nemeth isn’t the most dynamic player and there are certainly some guys in the notables with higher ceilings…yet he’s a guy with an NHL future and is overlooked despite his solid and simple game. He’s big, strong and physical showing solid instincts in his own end. He’s a mobile defensive defender and he’s very good at judging a trajectory on a hit and staying in the play. Expect little offense from Nemeth and you won’t be disappointed in him. He’s not a very good shooter, nor does he bring much creativity with the puck…sure he can make a pass or two but every defender is able to do that…or should be able to. He had a very good first season in North America though an injury ended his season short. It was only a year ago that he was on the top-pairing of Sweden’s U20 squad helping them win Gold. Next season he will play in Texas again to start the season.
Potential : Four-Six Shutdown Defenseman
Notables :
Kevin Connauton (A lot of offense and a wicked shot make Connauton a viable prospect, but if we are being real he is still brutal in his own zone and makes a lot of poor mistakes and poor reads, excellent skating and PP skills might find the 23 year old get an NHL job as a Curtis Foster or MA Bergeron kind of 5-6 specialist player…but realistically unless he fixes his defensive game he will stay in the AHL)
Scott Glennie (It has been a few years now and pretty much every player in the top-10 from the 2009 draft has established themselves in some fashion as an NHL…ranging from superstar to still figuring things out but in the NHL at least…Glennie appears to be the massive bust of that draft as he has struggled two years in a row in the AHL and just hasn’t shown anything that suggests he could be a top-6 guy…something he needs to be as he isn’t a bottom-6 player, every year there is a bust in the top-10, sometimes two or four…bad luck Dallas, at 22 there is still time, but the clock is ticking)
Emil Molin (Has seen very little ice-time in his domestic league over in Sweden, but an excellent U20 tournament has vaulted his value after putting up a PPG, he’s an extremely flashy forward with a lot of dangles, but he often overcomplicates his plays and runs into trouble defensively, some solid offensive upside but has a lot of holes in his game)
Devin Shore (Taking the long route through the OJHL to the NCAA, Shore led a fairly poor Maine squad in scoring in his rookie season with 26 points in 38 games, like Molin he has a lot of offensive flair but remains undersized and needs work in polishing his game, he is a long term project)
Ludwig Byström (A smooth skating and puck moving defenseman with great smarts, he has impressive positioning both offensively and defensively, unfortunately he had a wonky season which was highlighted by not making the U20 squad despite losing Klefbom/Brodin/Lindholm that pushed him out of this top-10 and he really needs a bounce back year, he’s still only 19 so patience is a virtue with him)
Philippe Desrosiers (Desrosiers ended up being the third goalie selected in the 2013 draft and for good reason, as the season wore on he gained more and more status including starting for Rimouski and taking them into the playoffs winning the QMJHL Defensive Rookie of the Year as well as leading Canada to Gold as the starter for the U18 squad having a minuscule .80GAA and .970sv%...like all goalies it is wait and see, but he could be a steal)
Thanks for reading.
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