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When Reid Boucher was drafted in 2011, the expectations for him weren't overly high.
He was selected by the New Jersey Devils in the 4th round (99th overall) and was labeled a bit of a high-risk, high-reward pick. If Boucher ever panned out properly, there was a chance he could be a top-6 forward. But that seemed unlikely.
Here we are two years later and at this point Boucher looks very promising. He's torn up the OHL and looks like he very well could be the top-6 forward everyone hoped he could develop into.
Just how good is Reid Boucher?
Based off what he did in the OHL last season, I'd say pretty darn good. After all, he did break Steven Stamkos' team record for most goals in a season and extend it to 62.
Let's take a look at just how dominant Boucher was by looking at some split stats and advanced stats.
We'll start with splits.
What stands out to me is that Boucher scored 12 more goals and recorded 15 more points in the second half of the season than he did in the first half. Why does that stand out? For a few reasons: a) He didn't tail off when most players do. He got even better; b) Alex Galchenyuk was in the NHL during the second half so he lost his center; and c) With Galchenyuk gone, Boucher was the player everyone was keying on.
Another thing that is rather impressive is his consistency. That's always been a bit of a knock on him. He's always been loaded with talent and for a few games he'd put up big numbers, but then he'd disappear for a few games.
That wasn't the case this year, as you can see, because he averaged over a point per game in the first half of the season and averaged over 1.5 points per game in the second half.
Pretty good, I'd say.
Now onto some more advanced numbers.
Note: Numbers courtesy of McKeensHockey. ESG is even strength goals, ESP is even strength points and so forth. GF on Ice % is the percentage of the teams goals for said player was on the ice for while GA is the opposite.
The first thing I noticed after I ran these numbers was his even strength goal total. He scored 40 even strength goals. 40. Think about that.
You know how many other CHL players scored 40 even strength goals this past season? None.
Another thing I found rather impressive was his 63 even strength points. That's a pretty healthy number. Almost a point per game at even strength alone is hard to do, regardless of what league you're playing in.
Going through the rest of the stats, you'll notice he scored 21 power play goals. Unsurprisingly, that led the OHL.
Lastly, he was on the ice for almost 35% of all goals Sarnia scored this season. That's nuts. What makes it even better was that he was on for just 14.56% of the goals against. When you're playing as much as Boucher did this past season, you'd think that total would be higher. That's not the case, though.
Basically what all these numbers say is that Reid Boucher was flat out dominant in the OHL this past season. I haven't ran the numbers but I imagine historically players that score 60+ goals in Junior tend to have good careers. Especially if said players weren't overagers when they recorded those numbers.
Given his totals in the OHL and that he tallied five points in 11 AHL games after his season in Sarnia ended, there's no reason to believe he won't be able to produce in Albany this season.
If he can do that and make more great strides in his development, it's not out of the question to believe he can step into the NHL full-time as early as 2014-15.
To say the least, the future looks bright for Boucher.
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