The quick version is this. I like both moves that the Carolina Hurricanes made during Friday’s opening of NHL free agency. I am also happy that Canes GM Jim Rutherford did not reach and overpay out of desperation and add a bad contract in the process. With McBain and Corvo out and Andrej Sekera and Mike Komisarek in, I think the Canes did improve on the blue line. But I am still left with 2 burning questions: 1) Is this enough? 2) What is Rutherford going to do to fill out a couple forward slots?
On the 2 deals:
Mike Komisarek. Coming off a real rough stint in Toronto, Komisarek is definitely a reclamation project at this point in his career. He was some combination of not good, not playing at all (healthy scratch) and finally playing in the minors by the time it was done in Toronto. But prior to that he was US Olympic team (selected for 2010 before injury) and NHL top 4 quality, so even if it seems distant, the potential is there. Putting upside optimism to the side and understanding his role is an important starting point however. Mike Komisarek was signed for 1 year for $700k to provide depth, hopefully hold down a 3rd pairing slot and fill a special role or 2. Keeping it simple, he needs to 1) Be an adequate 15-minute per night defenseman; 2) Ideally provide a big body for the PK that can clog passing lanes, block shots and move people to create sight lines for Canes goalies; 3) Help police the ice for the kids and team in general. That’s it. In his role, there is no request for help on the power play, nothing for a targeted point total, no expectation that he will take on top 4 minutes playing most of them against the other team’s best. If any of that happens, it is just a bonus on top of what is reasonable to expect in his role.
Anton Khudobin. Personally, I think it is hard to evaluate newer backup goalies. Their track records are small and at most you have seen them in person a handful of times. And I think evaluating someone like Khudobin who was playing for a stellar defensive team that won many more nights than it lost regardless of who was in net makes it harder. But I lean positive based on 3 things: 1) From having seen him play a few times last season, I do not remember seeing a striking difference in Boston’s game when he filled in for Rask which suggests he was not that big of a step down. 2) Everything I read from the scouts, raters, rankers, experts, etc. seems to suggest that he was 1 of the best options available for a backup goalie. 3) As much as I like Justin Peters, he just has not proven capable of being a successful NHL backup yet.
In addition to many who think he is on a track to be starter material, he is only 27, comes with the reputation for being a hard worker in practice and the Canes should have a pretty good read on his personality from his year in their system with the Florida Everblades.
My preference was to go with Peters, but that was partly predicated on trying to save enough salary cap $ to shoehorn in 1 more big defenseman addition. But the way things rolled out on Friday with Andrew Ference heading back home to Edmonton on a $3.25M contract and Rob Scuderi getting about full pricea at $3.4M to return to Pittsburgh, I do not think Rutherford really had a chance in this respect. So if priority #1 is to improve the defense and options are limited in terms of UFA defenseman, you go the Komisarek route, save some $ and spend some of the savings to improve defensively in net for 15-20 games next season. This seems like a reasonable plan B for putting a little money to work.
But that gets to the first of my 2 questions. I said I like the moves. I think both are smart. And I do think they make the Canes better defensively. But heading into a hornet’s nest of a division following a horrible year defensively, is the addition of a relatively unsung top 4 in Sekera, a reclamation depth defenseman in Mike Komisarek and a better backup goalie in Anton Khudobin truly enough to make the Canes a playoff contender? You can see where it could be, but I do not feel overwhelmed by the volume and quality of upgrades. I guess the hope is that the Canes really were not that bad last year but rather just got snowed under by Cam Ward’s and a couple other key injuries. One can hope.
The second question has to do with the forwards. The top end of the roster is locked in and the core is set, but were it not for the even more glaring problems defensively the complete non-contribution from the 3rd and 4th lines would be pretty headline-worthy. The 3rd line provided nothing in terms of scoring. Both the 3rd and 4th lines became defensive liabilities as the season wore on. There was minimal size and sauce there to provide the spark and energy that the lower forward lines usually bring. And the team received very little in terms of special teams help (especially PK) from roster spots that usually hold a special teams specialist or 2.
The drafting of Elias Lindholm should help and fills 1 key roster slot on an inexpensive entry-level contract salary. And Victor Rask provides another training camp possibility who could be ready to help. But when you net out the inability of the long-time system players (Boychuk, Dalpe, Terry, Bowman) to seize a key role past quietly filling a spot on the bench and also toss in the probable departure of Chad Larose and Tim Brent, the Canes are short a couple forwards. And with holes on either the 2nd or 3rd line at LW and no one in the current bottom half of the roster a proven penalty killer of consequence, it is not is if the key roles are filled and you can just plug anyone in. The Canes really need to add a difference-maker or 2 not necessarily to score a ton but to help fill roles. There are currently openings for at least 1 if not 2 new upfront penalty killers to improve the penalty kill. There is need for at least 1 player with size and grit to balance out the smallish young skill players who will be part of the 3rd line. With 2 offensive defensemen (Corvo, McBain) out and 2 defensive defensemen in, having a depth forward who has experience manning the point on the power play would be a nice addition to the power play. And there is need for at least some depth scoring too.
In my preview blog I preached the need for patience figuring that with a limited budget Rutherford would need to make at least 1-2 of his adds after the dust settled on the bidding wars, a few teams tapped out their budget and the remaining free agent losers of the first round of musical chairs became discounted. While I think there is still time, there are 2 things are a little different than I expected: 1) Things moved REAL fast on Friday. With GMs having 2 days to talk to players before the official open of free agency, we saw 3 days (if not a full week ) of signings on Friday. One top 30 list that I looked at showed only 5-6 of the top 30 players left; 2) There was a strange run on the better 4th-line/penalty kill options. For whatever reason, the forwards who are left seem to lean strongly toward the smaller scoring/skill variety. If the Canes had a bunch of size and grit at wing and were looking to boost goal production with a skilled center or wing maybe at the cost of defense, there were still pretty good options available this morning in guys like Mason Raymond, Derek Roy, Mikhail Grabovski, Damien Brunner, etc. There is also Jagr. And the enigmatic Dustin Penner would be an interesting fit as a huge 2nd line wing for a suddenly monstrous Jordan Staal line with Tuomo Ruutu suddenly becoming the little guy, but he is one of those players who is hard to figure out.
Surprisingly the high-quality depth players more suited for a 4th line went very quickly this year. Boyd Gordon was the premium version of this type of player, but I still have to question what Edmonton was thinking paying a 4th line center, regardless of how good he is, $3M/year for 3 years. Michal Handzus signed for a very 4th-linish $1M for 1 year, but this was clearly a decision to stay in Chicago, so even a higher bid by Rutherford would have been ignored. Maxim Lapierre is the other 4th-line center who could improve the defense, penalty kill and grit of the Canes. He signed for $1.1M/year. I have no idea if the Canes could have wooed him with a little bit more money. Ideally the Canes would have options for a gritty 4th-line penalty killer type (minimal scoring required) in the system, but I am not sure they do. Unless Rutherford digs someone up from what's left or swings a trade, Riley Nash might become the 4th-line center by default. But I still think that another subtle move to improve defensively would be to add a good 4th-line center who can anchor his unit and make it breakeven defensively for 5-8 minutes per night and also improve the penalty kill.
Of the players that are left, the ones I find interesting are:
--Brenden Morrow. As a couple people noted in the comments after the last blog, he would definitely be an upgrade in terms of big and nasty like the Canes want. At this stage of his career his offensive production is in decline, but maybe with enough skill around him he can be a perfect complementary player and provide a little bit of protection if paired with 1-2 of the kids. He is a career left wing, but could he move across to the right side and be the big and physical to go with fast and skilled in a Skinner/Lindholm or Skinner/Rask combination? Not too long ago, he would also have fit well on a big, checking-oriented 2nd line with JStaal and Ruutu, but I think he might be overslotted in that role at this point in his career.
My hunch is that he would be difficult to lure. He left Dallas to go to Pittsburgh to chase a Cup at the deadline last year. Best guess is that his top priority this summer is to do similar for next year. But the top teams are spending their money on veterans who maybe have a little more left in terms of production (Det: Alfredsson; Bos: Iginla; Pit: Scuderi, etc.), so just maybe he does not have any top shelf options right now and is better off taking a 1-year flyer on the Canes with the expectation that if it does not work out playoff-wise, he can again be a trade deadline rental for a Cup contender.
The Canes offer is this:
--A 1-year deal for a modest salary $1.5-2.2M?
--A no-trade clause that gives him control of where he would go at trade deadline if things do not work out for the Canes.
--A sincere promise by Jim Rutherford that if the Canes are out of the playoff hunt come deadline time that he will do everything he can to get him to a Cup contender of his choice. This is one of those situations where Rutherford’s history of honorable treatment of players helps because he can make such a non-contractual promise and be believable.
--Nik Antropov. He is not so much physical and nasty but he is huge at 6-6 240 lbs and reasonably skilled. He is a natural center, but I believe has also played some left wing which is where he would probably slot with the Canes. He did not have a great 2012-13 and would not go down as the most exciting of additions. But he brings more size, a big body for the power play and depth at center if needed pending the sink or swim trial of Lindholm or possibly Rask at 3rd-line center. This is another Komisarek-type add where you can get a veteran NHLer with some skill for cheap. As fast as the free agents moved this year, I just do not see much better options when you consider fit (not so much smallish and scoring).
The more expensive left wing flyer is of course the enigmatic Dustin Penner, but he is now 10 years into seemingly having a lot more upside, so I do not see how you can really think it is still on the way. I guess the optimistic spin is that like Antropov, he could make for "the aircraft carrier line" of Penner/Staal/Ruutu at an average of about 220 lbs per player.
Personally, of the 2, I think I would take Antropov who should be the lower cost risk and maintain a little bit of financial flexibility in case a trade is needed later to try to take a second shot at shoring up the defense.
--Any forward who can improve the penalty kill and will take a 4th-line salary. As noted above, the higher-end versions of this player (Boyd Gordon, Maxim Lapierre) and the 3rd-line versatile players (Cullen, Filppula, etc.) are gone. I have not had time to dig through who is left who could a good add for the penalty kill that had the double whammy of not being very good last year and still using a lot of time from scoring-type players to boot.
What say you Canes fans?
--Is an unheralded top 4 dman in Andrej Sekera, a depth defenseman in Mike Komisarek and a top-end backup goalie in Anton Khudobin enough improvement defensively?
--At this point how do you fill out the 3rd and 4th lines from the free agent leftovers and the system?
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