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Sorry for yet another blog today, but this is free agent week and the action is hot and heavy. Plus, I'm completely tied up on Thursday due to a bomb threat (I'm not even joking about this. Someone made a bomb threat to a SAGD plant in Northern Alberta on Wednesday and I'm "the media" now so I'm on the story). If I'm busy with my day job on Thursday, there won't be any hockey blogs until tomorrow evening at the earliest...so this is me attempting to hold you over for 18 or so hours.
K, the point of this blog: Oilers Now host Bob Stauffer sent out a Twitter message on Wednesday evening indicating his belief that the Oilers will change seven of 23 roster spots before the start of the 2013/2014 season. Specifically:
1. 2nd line LW
2. 3rd line RW
3. 3rd line C
4 + 5. 4th line wingers
6. Top 4 Left Shot defenseman
7. Goaltender (backup or starter)
You know I'm going to jump all over this, but figuring it all out was harder than a thought. Believe it or not, the Oilers have cap issues to deal with.
Let's start with my guess at a roster breakdown.
L1: Hall - Nugent-Hopkins - Eberle
L2: Ryan Clowe - Gagner - Yakupov
L3: Paajarvi - Zack Smith - Peter Mueller
L4: Matt Cooke - Lander - Colby Armstrong
Ex: Brown, Smyth
D1: Braydon Coburn - Schultz
D2: Smid - Petry
D3: Belov - Tom Gilbert
Ex: Potter
G1: Dubnyk
G2: Ray Emery
Okay, so you're looking at this and saying, "Wait, that's eight guys!" Well, yeah, I know. Why? Because I think the Oilers have a hole on the 3rd line D pairing, and Tom Gilbert is just there for the taking. Keep in mind he was a whole bunch better on the Oilers than he was for the Wild. More on this in a bit.
Going player by player:
Ryan Clowe - 2nd line LW - A bit of a risk because the offensive skill isn't entirely there, but the Oilers need meat in the Top 6, and he is meat. He's young enough to give a long-term deal to, and he's a better player than his stats said last season.
Zack Smith - 3rd line C - The Oilers need to do something with Ales Hemsky. Smith is within the Oilers price range, and he's talented enough to make sense here. Has size and some offense. Will be happy to be in Edm because there's a huge log jam at center developing in Ottawa.
Peter Mueller - 3rd line RW - True, Mueller isn't an ideal 3rd line guy, but the Oilers have depth issues at center. Mueller can play center or the wing, and Nuge might not be ready to go yet in October. Consider this an insurance policy.
Matt Cooke - 4th line LW - You have no idea how much I hate this guy, but the Oilers, sadly, have no one like him on the roster. Boo.
Colby Armstrong - 4th line RW - He hits, therefore, he's useful.
Braydon Coburn - Top Pairing LH D - I haven't figured out yet what the Oilers need to give up to get him. In my battle plan listed above, the Oilers are keeping Smid, which I see as the player the Flyers would want for Coburn. So how this deal happens is a mystery. But the Flyers are rumored to be adding three more UFAs this week, and they're capped out as it is. Something needs to go, so it might as well be Coburn to the Oilers.
Tom Gilbert - 3rd pairing RH D - As I said before, Gilbert was better as an Oiler. Once he clears waivers, the Oilers could sign him at an affordable price.
Ray Emery - Backup G - Rumor is, the Hawks want him back, and he wants to go back...But they signed that Raanta guy and I don't think he came all the way over here from Denmark or wherever so he could be in the AHL. Emery could push Dubnyk as starter, which makes him a possible three-year contract signing. Attractive if you're Emery.
So here's the big question: Does this all fit under the cap? Let's see...Keep in mind these are my best guesses.
Forwards
Hall - $6mil
Eberle - $6mil
Gagner - $4.75mil
Clowe - $4mil
Nugent-Hopkins - $3.775mil
Yakupov - $3.775mil
Smyth - $2.25mil
Mueller - $2mil
Smith - $1.8875mil
Cooke - $1.5mil
Paajarvi - $1.2mil
Armstrong - $1mil
Lander - $900K
Brown - $737K
Defense
Coburn - $4.5mil
Schultz - $3.775mil
Smid - $3.5mil
Gilbert - $2mil
Petry - $1.75mil
Belov - $1.525mil
Potter - $775K
Goalies
Dubnyk - $3.5mil
Emery - $1.5mil
Total: $62.5995mil
UNDER the cap by about $1.8mil. Good.
A few things to point out:
1. Hemsky and Horcoff are gone. Hemsky for Smith; Horcoff for a ham sammich.
2. Nick Schultz needs to go. The Oilers could turn him into a 2nd round pick, which could then be shifted as part of the Coburn deal. Or, the Oilers could shift Schultz + a 2nd? Use your imagination.
3. Gagner and Paajarvi are re-signed...Although I heard a rumor tonight that the Oilers are open to dealing Paajarvi. Weird. I wouldn't.
4. Should the Oilers do all of this, they won't have cap issues moving forward. Rumors flying everywhere today that the cap is going way up next season...which is part of the reason the Flyers and Penguins are spending like crazy.
One Final Note...
Another idea I am floating is the Oilers dealing Hemsky to Columbus for Nick Foligno. This would mean the Oilers would need to sign a different center and left wing. Screws up my entire plan, actually. Subtract Clowe...Foligno goes 2nd line LW, and maybe Mueller is signed as 3rd line center and someone like Benoit Pouliot is the new 3rd line LW, moving Paajarvi to the right side. And as I've been saying, you could easily see Nick Schultz stay and Smid go in a deal for Coburn.
This is starting to sound like JFK's magic bullet theory.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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