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Meltzer's Musings: Homer Talks Draft, Thursday Quick Hits

June 27, 2013, 8:41 AM ET [1219 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Homer Talks Draft

Yesterday, Flyers general manager Paul Holmgren held his annual pre-Draft media availability session. No general manager ever willfully tips his hand about which prospects his team covets. Holmgren wasn't about to go into specifics.

Holmgren reiterated several times that anything is possible, including potentially moving up or down from the 11th pick. He also would not publicly say the organization ruled out drafting a top-ranked goaltender prospect (i.e., Zach Fucale) with the eleventh overall pick, let alone volunteering to name particular forwards or defensemen of interest.

When a team picks anywhere beyond the top five in a Draft, there are too many variables and potential surprises to predict which players will fall to your team. A Draft floor trade or off-the-board selection often has a trickle-down effect with the projected order of selection getting significantly altered. That's why I'm not a big fan of mock drafts.

In yesterday's session, Holmgren reiterated that the Flyers will maintain their "best player available" philosophy of drafting, and will only draft by positional need (defense) if they have two options whom they consider to be of similar potential in terms of becoming impact players.

Holmgren said that there are a few players in this year's draft whom he considers to be potential franchise players but it would probably require trading up into the top four to land one of them.

The GM acknowledged that he's often heard from Ed Snider and many others that the franchise has not had much success in choosing defensemen in the Draft. He also admitted that lack of organizational patience with defense prospects has been part of the problem.

It's one thing to preach patience and quite another to actually exercise it. If a team drafts a defenseman, whether it's in the first round or later, it had better be prepared to live through plenty of growing pains. The learning curve for a defenseman can often last three to five years before it can be accurately determined if the player is ever likely to become (and remain) an impact defenseman. The Flyers' ownership and the fan base don't have nearly that much patience, because there is a constant win-now expectation.

Something else to consider: risk tolerance. What teams usually mean by "best player available" is that he he has the highest physical upside PLUS what they consider to be a relatively minor risk of being a fringe NHL player (or, even worse, a player who fails to reach the NHL at all) if he stagnates in his development in the near future. The risk factor is usually higher for defensemen, so when all factors are considered the best player available in the Draft pool is more often than not going to be a forward.

Correspondingly, there is a lower probability that even a first-round drafted defenseman will someday become an All-Star caliber player much less belong in the "superstar" class that lies even above the standouts. Kimmo Timonen and Keith Yandle are All-Star defensemen. Chris Pronger and Nicklas Lidström were superstar caliber defensemen.

In this year's Draft class, there is no shortage of defensemen with intriguing upsides for their size, speed, puck skills and/or defensive games. But every one of them except Seth Jones carries at least one significant risk factor as a potential high-end first round pick.

For example, Darnell Nurse, Nikita Zadorov, Rasmus Ristolainen and Sam Morin may not develop into much offensively at the pro level based on their current projections. Ryan Pulock has first power play unit upside but isn't the smoothest skater and his positional game is still a work in progress. Josh Morrissey, who is generally pegged as a mid-to-late first round pick, has as much skill as any defenseman in the Draft but his average-at-best size could create matchup problems in the trenches against bigger, stronger forwards.

If the Flyers can deal with the inherent risks and are willing to oversee the player's development for a prolonged period of time -- not just one or two years after the guy turns pro, but for up to half of the next decade after Draft day -- it could be worth passing up a comparably rated forward to select a defenseman in the first round.

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Thursday Quick Hits

* In yesterday's press conference, Holmgren said that the Flyers' cadre of injured defensemen, including Braydon Coburn (separated shoulder), Kimmo Timonen (foot) and Nicklas Grossmann (concussion), have received medical clearance and are now healthy. The lone current exception is Andrej Meszaros (rotator cuff surgery), who is expected to receive his medical clearance in July.

* Ritch Winter, the agent for deposed goaltender Ilya Bryzgalov, went on Edmonton radio station 630 CHED to state his case that his client was never put in a position to succeed in Philadelphia. The agent ripped into Peter Laviolette's system, claimed that goaltending coach Jeff Reese has no authority and is tuned out by the head coach. Specifically, Winter complained that the Flyers were too concerned with blocking shots and that the goalie frequently fell victim to screens and deflections that were beyond his control to stop.

It should be noted that Winter has performed the "Bryz's defense wouldn't let him see the puck" same song and dance before. The agent said almost exactly the same thing ("how many of those goals he allowed did he see?") in explaining away Bryzgalov's less-than-stellar playoff showing in 2010 and 2011 before his departure from Phoenix.

The Flyers frequently have had their share of defensive flaws: too many turnovers in dangerous areas, too many coverage breakdowns where someone is left open, too big of a D-to-forward gap. An over-emphasis on shot blocking isn't one of them. There are goalies on teams that block a lot of shots who have had plenty of success.

I suspect that Winter was speaking as Bryzgalov's proxy in this instance. The words came out of the agent's mouth in public but likely originated directly from his client. The gripes about the Flyers coaches and the specific complaint of not being able to consistently see the puck are things that Bryzgalov himself was alleged to utter repeatedly during his Flyers tenure.

It is also likely that Bryzgalov said the same things -- at least in terms of blaming his teammates for opposition goals -- during his time in Phoenix. That is part of the context for the less-than-flattering comments former Phoenix teammates Derek Morris and Adrian Aucoin made about Bryzgalov after his departure to Philadelphia.

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