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Meltzer's Musings: Cause for Concern in Re-Signing Free Agents Next Summer?

June 20, 2013, 6:51 AM ET [612 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
It is far too early to know how the Flyers' roster and salary cap outlook will shape up over the next 12 months. However, there are early indications that the team will not be in as bad of shape as some fear they'll be when it comes time to re-sign the group of players who can become restricted or unrestricted free agents next summer.

The first order of business for the Flyers right now is get compliant with the salary cap ceiling for the 2013-14 season, which will drop from $70.2 million to $64.3 million. This will be accomplished with a buyout of Danny Briere's $6 million cap hit and possibly a second compliance buyout being used to take Ilya Bryzgalov's $5.67 million cap hit off the books. If Bryzgalov is not bought out this summer, there is still a significant chance the team buys him out next summer.

The NHL's salary cap ceiling is likely to increase in 2014-15, and it cannot drop. How much it would increase is unknown at this point, as it is tied to the growth of the league's hockey-related revenues. Over the life of the last CBA prior to the 2012 lockout, NHL revenues grew at an average annual rate of about 7.2 percent.

The Flyers have already begun negotiations to sign team captain Claude Giroux to a contract extension. A restricted free agent next summer, Giroux will be in line for a long-term deal that will significantly increase his current $3.75 million cap hit. I fully expect that the new deal will carry a cap hit of around $7.5 million.

Re-signing Giroux is the Flyers' top long-range-planning priority. Apart from Giroux, the Flyers also have to make decisions on the contracts of a handful of important players on the current roster. This includes Brayden Schenn (a restricted free agent next summer), Sean Couturier (RFA), Matt Read (unrestricted free agent), Steve Mason (RFA), Andrej Meszaros (UFA) and Kimmo Timonen (UFA). Let's look at each one individually.

Schenn's current entry-level contract carries a hefty cap hit of $3.11 million. That cap hit is NOT likely to jump much if at all in his next deal. Instead, he will make his extra money through a big jump in his base salary and the elimination of bonuses in his next contract.

Schenn's entry-level contract originally signed when he was a member of the Los Angeles Kings organization is largely steeped in performance bonuses. It carried a relatively modest base salary of $900,000 in the first two seasons and $810,000 for the 2013-14 season. For Schenn to collect the maximum $2.35 million in bonuses he's eligible for next year, he'd have to have All-Star season, finishing among the league's point leaders and winning a major award.

If Schenn has a breakout season of that caliber then, yes, his next Flyers contract will carry a higher cap hit than his entry-level deal. More likely is that he'll continue to progress in his game at a more modest pace and the Flyers will pay him something akin to his current cap hit based on projected future development.

Couturier's entry-level contract carries a $1.37 million cap hit, which is primarily comprised of a $925,000 base salary and annual installments of $92,500 toward his initial signing bonuses. In contract to Schenn, Couturier's ELC performance bonuses max out at $450,000.

When Couturier signs his next contract, his cap hit will increase. How much it will go up could make for a tricky negotiation, unless the extension is agreed up before he becomes a restricted free agent. There must be a valuation placed on his demonstrated development as a fine young shutout center and projected growth as an offensive performer. Unless Couturier waits to become an RFA next summer and has a breakout offensive year in 2013-14 leading into his RFA status, I don't think he's going to get a huge raise. Instead, I think he will end up with a "bridge contract" of about two seasons, and be eligible for RFA status again at the end.

Both Schenn and Couturier collected a portion of their performance bonuses this past season season, which will cause a cap penalty of $182,927 tacked onto the Flyers' 2013-14 cap figure. Both Schenn and Couturier finished among the team's top six forwards in ice time this season, which earned Schenn a $124,390 bonus and Couturier a bonus $58,537, according to CSN Philly/HockeyBuzz writer Tim Panaccio.

Read's case is also a tricky one. As a potential unrestricted free agent next summer, Read is clearly going to get a major raise on his current $900,000 cap hit agreed to when he was signed as an undrafted free agent. If Read can stay healthy and produce a 20-plus goal season akin to his rookie season of 2011-12 -- while continuing to be relied upon for strong two-way play in all manpower situations -- his next contract is the most likely one to fall beyond what the Flyers are willing/able to pay under the cap.

All things being equal, I have no doubt that the Flyers would prefer to retain Read. But his market value for next summer could vary considerably based on his performance next season and with the 2014-15 cap ceiling a long way from being determined, the Flyers will have to deal with a maximum $64.3 million of total tagging space.

As such, it would NOT be a surprise if the Flyers end up trading Read this summer. That's especially true if the deal helps the team to plug other holes in the lineup. He's a valuable player who can be plugged just about anywhere in the top nine, but it's just the nature of the beast in the cap age.

On the flip side, the Flyers are able to free up sufficient cap space elsewhere AND if Read's agents demands are within the team's tagging space limits, then you could see Read remain a Flyer for several years to come unless he is dealt first as part of a "hockey trade" (meaning one driven by teams addressing on-ice needs and not salary cap issues).

Goaltender Mason took a pay cut on a one-year contract for the 2013-14 season in the hopes of getting his once-promising career back on track and re-establishing himself as a viable long-term starter. If the former Calder Trophy winner has a big year for the Flyers next year, he'd be in line for a significantly bigger salary than the $1.5 million on his new deal. If not, he'll get paid backup-level money roughly in line with his current one-year deal with the Flyers.

I have discussed Meszaros' situation in previous blogs and I'm planning to devote tomorrow's blog to looking in-depth at his three years in Philadelphia and discuss both the pros and cons of trading him this summer. For now, I'll just say that his $4.0 million cap hit is a candidate to get deal this year and that he may have to go elsewhere to play his final season before reaching UFA status.

Timonen, who signed a one-year, $6 million contract extension earlier this season, has slightly backed off an earlier declaration that he was ninety-nine percent likely to retire after next season. However, he is still preparing for the 2013-14 season as if it will be his last in the NHL and it remains probable that the team's top all-around defenseman will no longer be on the ice with the Flyers come 2014-15.

The silver lining to losing the four-time NHL All-Star is that his retirement would free up a huge chunk of salary cap space. In fact, taking Timonen, Meszaros, Briere and Bryzgalov off the books would deduct a total $21.67 million worth of currently tied-up space off the Flyers' cap between now and the summer of 2014. Cap-wise, the recent trade acquisition and reported signing of Mark Streit to a four-year contract will eat up $5.1 million worth of whatever cap space is opened this and next offseason.

Ultimately, most or all of the current Timonen cap money could be earmarked for paying whomever eventually replaces him at the top end of the Flyers blueline. Streit's arrival this year cushions some of the offensive blow in planning for Timonen's departure. However, Streit is not capable of playing the tough defensive-zone minutes at five-on-five that Timonen plays. Streit is a specialist who happens to be exceptionally good at the areas (breakout passing, power play offense) that are his strengths.


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