Now that the season has officially ended for the Pittsburgh Penguins the focus of their organization will shift from the on ice games, to the off ice managing of their roster. Ray Shero has some interesting decisions to make during this offseason. Now that Dan Bylsma and Evgeni Malkin's situations have been resolved Shero's focus will shift to some of the Penguins other players.
Will he retain the services of Penguin veterans Pascal Dupuis and Matt Cooke?
Will he try to retain any of his trade deadline acquisitions (Iginla, Murray, Morrow)?
Will he move long time netminder Marc Andre Fleury?
For the purposes of this article I am going to focus on another one of Shero’s big question marks, what to do with Kris Letang? Letang’s contract is expiring at the same time as Evgeni Malkin’s, but unlike Malkin, Letang’s next contract will most likely see his cap hit double (3.5M to 7M). Does Ray Shero want to lock in Kris Letang for that kind of long term cap hit? Does he have to? Will Letang be traded at the draft like Jordan Staal?
Here is what we do know. Kris Letang is one of the most physically skilled defenseman in the entire NHL. His skating is amongst the best. It is the driving force behind what makes him a difference maker. He is able to make up ground defensively because of his speed, as well as join the play offensively. He has the ability to play in any situation. He has the ability to play huge minutes. His offseason work ethic is very good. He has a high compete level and is willing to mix it up physically. He is also currently a finalist for the Norris Trophy.
Here are some defensemen stats that have been compiled from the past 5 seasons (2008-2013).
Here are the top 10 defensemen from the past 5 years in *Fenwick For % (Close)*:
As you can see Kris Letang is in great company. Every player on that list has won a Stanley Cup with the exception of Pietrangelo. Keith, Hjalmarsson, Chara and Boychuk are all in the running to win their 2nd Cup this year. Lidstrom and Rafalski, now retired, both have won multiple Stanley Cups. The ability to control the flow of a tight scoring game starts from your back end. Each of those players contributed positively to puck possession in tight games.
Here are your top 10 even strength point leaders amongst defenseman the past 5 years:
It is always an asset to have a defenseman who can generate offense while playing at even strength. Kris Letang has been able to provide that dynamic during the previous 5 seasons.
That is the good about Kris Letang. But I am a big believer that stats should only help sharpen your perspective, not be your perspective.
On the flip side of things Letang did not have a good playoff for the Penguins this year. His play was consistent in that it was consistently inconsistent. Letang lacked poise and was prone to multiple mental errors each game, most of which were unforced. Letang is the leader in the playoffs in goals against while on the ice (20). His mental gaffes were usually in terrible spots on the ice and that certainly led to his league leading 20 goals against.
Also damning was Kris Letang’s level of play on the man advantage. Given Letang’s natural skill set it makes sense that he should be a shoe in to quarterback a power play, especially with the talent around him in Pittsburgh. However, this is not the case. Sure the Kris Letang led power play numbers look impressive as a whole but that is more of a product of the generational talent that flanks him.
Letang struggled with the distribution of pucks. His receiving of passes was not smooth, his execution of making quick concise choices with the puck was delayed, and his propensity of either not shooting or missing the net was problematic as well. When entertaining the thought of giving a defenseman 7M per season, it is imperative that they are a rock on the power play. Letang was not. The power play should be one of the certainties about Letang’s game, not a question mark. Paul Martin, not Letang, was the defenseman that should have been quarterbacking the Penguins power play this season based on quality of play.
Also when giving a player like Letang a long term extension for big money you have to wonder about the quality of play as the term of the contract wears on. Letang’s best assets are his dynamic physical skills. How will Letang be able to retain those physical skills as time goes on? In the past two seasons Letang has missed 44 of the past 130 games. Is this random or will it be a pattern given his physically demanding style of play?
Another factor for Ray Shero to consider is how his organization is currently constructed. What affect would keeping Letang have on how he works his roster, and what affect would it have if he left?
The Penguins organization is known for its offense. A large portion of that success comes from the strength of their forward unit at the NHL level. What the Penguins do not have is forward depth in their prospect pool. Beau Bennett is currently the only Penguin in the farm system that is available to make an immediate impact (and will next season).
The strength of the Penguins farm system is their defense prospects. The reason the Penguins are so bare with prospects at the forward spot is because Ray Shero has consistently invested his high draft picks in defensemen. Simon Despres, Joe Morrow (since traded to Dallas), Scott Harrington, Derrick Pouliot, and Olli Maatta have all been recently selected by Ray Shero in the first two rounds. Brian Dumoulin was also acquired via the Jordan Staal trade.
Given this plethora of defense talent coming up through the system, it will allow Ray Shero to not feel like his hands are tied with a new Letang contract. If the Penguins did not have this great depth coming up through the ranks Shero would almost have to give in to Letang’s demands. Given that the defense position is an organizational strength, he can now treat the Letang situation much like he did with Jordan Staal. Shero can trade Letang from a position of strength at the draft for a very nice return.
There are really only two options for Shero at this point, extend Kris Letang long term, or trade him now. It would just complicate things if Shero waited until the trade deadline. Shero would run into the problem of keeping Letang for a playoff push and potentially losing him for nothing, or trading him and wondering if he has handcuffed his team’s chances at a Cup. If he gets in front of it now he has given himself time to structure his roster for both the short term and long term.
Personally I don’t think it would be a bad idea for the Penguins to move on from Letang. The name of the game in the salary cap era is asset management. The Penguins have an asset with value in Letang and will certainly be able to land an attractive return on the trade market. Given that the Penguins have multiple options for Letang’s replacement within the organization, it at least makes sense to explore the possibility of moving Letang.
It remains to be seen what will happen in the coming weeks in regards to Letang and other Penguin personnel decisions. One thing is for sure, Ray Shero understands asset management as well as anybody and the Penguins have an organizational strength at the defense position. Should be an incredibly interesting scenario to watch unfold.
Thanks for reading!
* Fenwick For % (close) is a puck possession metric that is defined as 5 on 5 play when the game is tied or within 1 goal in the first and second periods or tied in the third period. Using Fenwick Close is the most accurate way of determining puck possession. Close games are when you can see a players’ true colors show. In games that have one team with a significant lead you tend to see teams going into a “prevent” defense. This leads to more shots are directed at their own net than normal because of the cushion of the lead, this skews the data *
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