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One of the moderately frustrating things from an analytical perspective in sports is that playoff performance is perceived to trump all. You can wipe away a lengthy sample-size of fantastic production with a poorly timed slump in a few post-season games; conversely, you can watch your stock rocket by simply catching a few breaks at the right time.
What makes this season interesting is that 17% of Ottawa's games this year were played in the playoffs -- thank the lockout for that, I guess. I do think both the front office and coaching staff learned a bit from their team against some stronger competition in the post-season, and probably will base some of their future decisions off of what transpired in May.
I saw my inbox and Twitter feed pounded with questions concerning playoff performance(s) during and after Ottawa's game-five elimination against Pittsburgh, so I figured I'd look back on some of the good and bad that I saw against the Canadiens and Penguins, running each mini-point in separate entries.
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(1) The best players play, and Ottawa's captain was the team's best skater.
There's something poetic about a forty year-old captain in potentially his final season delivering a team-best performance during the Stanley Cup playoffs. A lot's going to be made about whether or not Daniel Alfredsson will return for a final season next year, and according to the captain, the majority of it is going to be based on his family.
It's funny: sometimes, you hear older players publicly-wondering if they can still compete at the highest professional level. Alfredsson's never said it. Based on his playoff run, you kind of understand his confidence.
Alfredson led the team in scoring (4G/6A), including that thrilling
fifty-ninth minute equalizer against Pittsburgh.
I've put together a couple of graphs here to better illustrate the data that seems to bog some people down a bit. The first, raw even-strength goals for and against: with Daniel Alfredsson on the ice, and without Daniel Alfredsson on the ice.
Because goal-scoring is such a limited commodity, we tend to look more at shot attempts as a better depiction of possession-time and on-ice dominance. Daniel Alfredsson had that in spades relative to his teammates against Montreal and Pittsburgh.
For sake of simplicity, I've excluded the brief stretch where Ottawa was playing wildly from behind with Robin Lehner in net.
Daniel Alfredsson's most common defensive opponents have something in common: they're either DZ specialists, or Norris Trophy finalists:
The forward opposition wasn't very generous, either, including the entire Sidney Crosby line and two-way extraordinaire Tomas Plekanec.
In summation: a forty year-old winger led the team in playoff scoring, it was qualified by his ability to drive the ice, further qualified by drawing against quality players regularly, and really just a build-on to an incredibly successful 2012-2013 regular season.
Bryan Murray won't want Daniel Alfredsson back primarily because he's a nice guy and has done a lot for the organization. He wants him back because he's still an excellent hockey player.
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Thanks for reading!
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