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The Winnipeg Jets have 4 key free agents, two of which will pop up in the rumour mill until they are either signed, offer sheeted or traded. It’s simple off-season speculation and rumour mill logic. The four players are Bogosian, Wheeler, Little, and Burmistrov and the two for which the rumour mill turns are Bogosian and Burmistrov.
The fun started early for Burmi when Gary Lawless let fly with an article about the young Russian no longer wanting to play in Winnipeg. Things in the river city got even goofier yesterday when on TSN 1290 the noon hour host Rick Ralph had a car dealer call on air and say Burmistrov was shipping his Mercedes back to Russia and follow it up with a ‘don’t tell anyone I told you.’ There’s a company I will NOTT be dealing with.
So what’s it all mean- nothing at this point but if you haven’t read my thoughts on
Burmistrov click here.
The other name that keeps popping up is Bogosian. I’m not sure why as there has been no indication the player is unhappy, wants a change or doesn’t like the coach. The simple explanation I see is that any fan base with an ounce of hockey sense wants him; therefore he’s in the rumour mill.
Take out Burmistrov and the Jets are looking at three players who are critical components to the team. For the two forwards of Wheeler and Little the two combined for 21.5% of the Jets total 339 player points. In a full season the two combined for 18.3% of a total of 601 player points.
For a team that does not have scoring depth and has missed the post season for 6 consecutive seasons does giving up on almost 20% of their points produced over two seasons make sense over contract value? I’m not suggesting Chevy should hand them a blank page and fill in the number but the two are in the driver’s seat to some degree.
The last major contract the Jets had to negotiate was Evander Kane’s and he pulled in a whopping 32.5 million over 6 years. Could Blake Wheeler ask for the same? Of course he and his agent can ask but is it fair to pay the right-winger 5.5 million a year?
Wheeler has 93 goals, 139 assists for 239 points in 372 NHL games for a .623 points per game ratio. Kane has 80 goals, 79 assists for 159 points in 261 games for .609 points per game. The difference is in the goals- Kane has a .306 goals/game ratio while Wheeler is at .25 per game. A premium goes to goals and as mentioned numerous times the list of 20 year-old players who have scored 30 goals is a small, elite group.
Wheeler will be 27 at the start of this year and I assume the Jets will not want to carry a contract past the age of 32. Chevy’s playbook may be 4 years at 5 million for a total of 20 million and I would suspect Wheeler wants a few extra years for ‘security’. So like Kane’s initial offer from the Jets of 29 million over 6 years I suspect the middle ground comes in a bit higher. Add the RFA advantage to the Jets and I suspect the Jets and Wheeler arrive at a deal near 5 years and 26 million over the term with a approximate cap hit of 5.2 million. Wheeler could very well be at his peak production and decline in a few years while Kane should be hitting his peak when his deal expires at age 27 for him.
Little is another story. He’s not a true number one center as most would picture it but he is for the Jets and he suits his line mates well. That being said- what’s Little worth to the Jets, or another team?
Cap comparables are players like Cogliano .425 pts/game, Frolik .432 pts/game, Raymond .475 pts/game, Marchand .610 pts/game and Brouwer .460 pts/game. They are all about the same age ranging from 25-27 as well. Little comparatively runs at a .561 pts/game making him just below Marchand in terms of value by points.
Marchand received a 4 year 18 million extension for a 4.5 cap hit to the Bruins. Would Little be deserving of the same bump in salary from his current 3 million a year? It would be hard to argue against anything under 5 million based on his value to the Jets, at least as I see it. Once again look to Chevy’s playbook and wonder- would he offer up Marchand’s deal to Little?
Right now there is no apparent number 1 heir apparent center in the Winnipeg Jets system. Chevy and Jets fans will hope and believe it is Scheifele but it’s far too early to assume that will happen and what are the other options?
How often do number one centers hit the trade market? If that were even to happen the price would be high and the Jets have few, if any, assets not named Dustin Byfuglien that could anchor a deal of that magnitude. In this market reality Bryan Little and his agent must know to fill his shoes is not a simple task, and there is no indication that Chevy wants to move in a different direction.
I would expect Little gets a bit more and either ends up with a 4 or 5 year deal between 18-21 million for an approximate 4.5 million cap hit. If the salary seems steep it is in some regards, as I think the Jets will have to pay a slight premium on salary. The reasons should be obvious: no other #1 center option, existing chemistry with line mates and location. Without the Jets having a consistent playoff team I suspect there will always be a premium paid for any type of free agent signing.
The one interesting aspect of Little’s deal might be the length that is ultimately decided upon and perhaps one other factor. Should the NHL Entry Draft be the rodeo of horse-trading some suspect I would not be too surprised if Chevy was a busy wrangler. He has cap space, draft picks and a bit of roster currency to use in any deal.
What does this mean? Well if talks are not going well between the two parties before the draft expect something to happen. Chevy could attempt to make a deal which would then give him some bargaining power. Remember the acquisition of Gustavsson’s rights for a 7th after a heated exchange with Allan Walsh last year? If snags are there before the draft I expect a leak from Little’s camp to increase the price should the Jets GM have to start looking elsewhere.
This is all speculation into a rather dramatic and unlikely scenario but it’s also how the game is played. Hopefully for the two sides it does not come to that and Chevy can add players to support Little, Ladd and Wheeler. Hang tough because we’ll start hearing news soon enough as this situation moves closer to the critical dates of the off-season.
Winnipeg Jets Blogger •Winnipeg Jets Writer • 
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