|
My Eastern Conference Quarterfinals Picks |
|
|
|
|
|
Since I don't have a series of my own to preview and I don't want to get into the Columbus Blue Jackets season postmortem, I thought I'd give my picks for the NHL quarterfinal playoff series. Today I start in the East.
First, allow me to give you an idea of what I find important when picking between two playoff teams.
Goaltending: We've heard it all before: Good goaltending can take an average team further in the playoffs while mediocre or pool play in net can derail the postseason aspirations of more talented teams. I tend to favor the team that has a clear edge in goal once the playoffs begin.
Five-on-Five (5v5) Play: Generally teams that excel at 5v5 play do well in the postseason. I have compared how each playoff team performed in 5v5 goal differential and 5v5 shots for and shots against. This helps give me an idea which team will have an advantage at even strength. Teams that control play at five-on-five have the puck more and can wear down the opposing defense.
Last 10 games: Teams ordinarily want to be playing their best hockey heading into the playoffs so how each club has done in the last 10 games will give us a barometer for how they are playing right now.
Head-to-Head (H2H): If one team dominated another in the regular season, it could indicate match-up advantages which could also be exploited in the postseason as well.
Special Teams: Goals are at a premium in the playoffs. If you can get a few extra tallies from your special teams that can be the difference between winning and losing a series. Conversely a good penalty killing unit can further stifle an opponent's offense and give your team a better chance.
Also, none of these picks are based on my like or dislike for any team in the playoffs. These are just my opinions and I accept the probability that I will miss some of these.
With that out of the way let's get into the picks:
#1 Pittsburgh Penguins vs. #8 New York Islanders
Goaltending: Marc-Andre Fleury owns a Stanley Cup ring but struggled horribly in last year's first round ouster at the hands of the Flyers. He's not what I would call a "sure thing."
Evgeni Nabokov tied for the second most victories on the season with 23 and should at least give the Islanders solid play in net. He hasn't been the #1 guy in a playoff series in three years though.
Last 10 games:
Pittsburgh - 8 - 2 - 0
Islanders - 6 - 1 - 3
H2H:
Pittsburgh won the season series 4 - 1
Analysis: Both clubs have played well coming down the stretch but the Penguins owned the Islanders during their head-to-head matches.
5v5 Goal Differential:
Pittsburgh - +28
Islanders - (-2)
5v5 Shot Differential:
Pittsburgh - (-0.2)
Islanders - +3.0
Analysis: Pittsburgh finished about even in 5v5 shot differential but outscored the opposition by 28 goals, the highest among EC playoff teams. The Islanders outshot their opponents by an average of three per sixty minutes but were outscored in that situation on the season.
Power Play
Pittsburgh - 24.7%
Islanders - 19.9%
Penalty Kill
Pittsburgh - 79.6% (25th in NHL)
Islanders - 80.3% (20th in NHL)
Analysis: Both teams are potent on the man-advantage but struggle killing of PP chances against. If the Islanders can force the Penguins to take some undisciplined penalties they'll improve their chances of staying in the series.
Outlook: The numbers don't reveal any specific area in which the Islanders own an advantage and that can help them overcome the simple fact that Pittsburgh has way too much depth. They can roll four lines that can all put the puck in the net and can play any way you want to play. I hate to say it but it would be a monumental surprise if this series went beyond six games even.
Pick: Penguins in five.
#2 Montreal vs. #7 Ottawa
Goaltending: Both clubs boast very talented goalies in Carey Price and Craig Anderson. If not for missing a big chunk of the season, Anderson would probably be a sure Vezina nominee. He's back and healthy now though.
Price's numbers (2.59 GAA, 0.905 Save %) were pretty pedestrian but he has the ability to steal games on his own.
Last 10:
Montreal - 4 - 6 - 0
Ottawa - 6 - 4 - 0
H2H:
Season series is tied at 2 - 1 - 1.
Analysis: The biggest thing here might be the return of Erik Karlsson to the Senators lineup. Somehow Ottawa qualified for the playoffs despite missing several of their best players (Karlsson, Jason Spezza, Milan Michalek, Craig Anderson and Jared Cowan) for much of the season. With Anderson, Michalek, Cowan and now Karlsson all back in the lineup Ottawa is close to full health for the first time all season. Spezza might also return soon and that would represent another huge boost for Ottawa.
5v5 Goal Differential:
Montreal - +20
Ottawa - +2
5v5 Shot Differential:
Montreal - +4.3
Ottawa - +2.9
Analysis: Montreal was the stronger team at even strength but again, Ottawa played much of the year with a patchwork lineup. At full strength they should be stronger.
Power Play:
Montreal - 20.7%
Ottawa - 15.9%
Penalty Kill:
Montreal - 79.8% (23rd in NHL)
Ottawa - 88.0% (1st in NHL)
Analysis: It should be a good battle between one of the league's better man-advantage attacks and the best PK group in the NHL. Whoever wins this one might have the advantage in the series.
Outlook: I have to believe Ottawa will be energized coming into the postseason with so many of their injured players returning. Erik Karlsson is one of the best players in the game and is an important piece for Ottawa. The Senators are simply a much different team with him in the lineup and I think that gives them the advantage in this series.
Pick: Ottawa in seven.
#3 Washington vs. #6 New York Rangers
Goaltending: The Rangers know they can count on reigning Vezina Trophy winner Henrik Lundqvist to keep them in just about every game. Washington will go with Braden Holtby who played pretty well against the Rangers in last year's conference semifinals. Holtby has ability but Hank has the longer track record.
Last 10:
Washington - 8 - 1 - 1
Rangers - 7 - 3 - 0
H2H:
New York won the season series going 2 - 0 - 1
Analysis: Washington won 16 of their final 22 and earned points in two others. However the Capitals feasted on their division rivals winning eight times during that period against Southeast Division opponents. As we know, Washington was the only club from that division to qualify for the postseason so it wasn't as if the Capitals were taking down high quality opponents every night.
The Rangers were up and down all year after entering the campaign on the short list of Cup contenders. They made a major change to the complexion of their club at the trade deadline by shipping out Marian Gaborik and adding Derick Brassard, Derek Dorsett, John Moore and Ryane Clowe. Those moves spurred the Rangers onto a strong finish on the back of a more balanced and physical lineup.
5v5 Goal Differential:
Washington - +6
Rangers - +21
5v5 Shot Differential:
Washington - (-3.4)
Rangers - +4.4
Analysis: The Rangers look like a stronger team at even-strength and in fact own the second-best goal differential among Eastern Conference playoff squads.
Power Play:
Washington - 26.8%
Rangers - 15.7%
Penalty Kill:
Washington - 77.9% (27th in NHL)
Rangers - 81.1% (15th in the NHL)
Analysis: This match-up could come down to the Caps league-best PP versus the Rangers PK. Even though the Rangers were middle-of-the-pack killing of PP chances, they also were the league's least penalized team. It's not likely the officiating is going to get tighter in the postseason so the Blue Shirts should be able to stay out of the box and keep the Caps potent PP sidelined.
Outlook: The Rangers and Caps face off in the postseason for the 4th time in the last five years. Both teams enter the playoffs playing well and each can counter the others strengths. At the end of the day I find it hard to pick against Hank.
Pick: Rangers in seven
#4 Boston vs. #5 Toronto
Goaltending: Tuuka Rask is set to be rewarded for a fine season with a Vezina nomination. James Reimer has been a revelation in goal for Toronto in helping the Leafs reach the postseason for the first time in nine seasons.
Last 10:
Boston - 3 - 5 - 2
Toronto - 5 - 4 - 1
H2H:
Boston won the season series 3 - 1 - 0
Analysis: Boston has stumbled badly down the stretch and lost the Northeast Division crown to Montreal. Toronto was only somewhat better but didn't fold down the stretch as they have in years past.
5v5 Goal Differential:
Boston - +21
Toronto - +5
5v5 Shot Differential:
Boston - +4.2
Toronto - (-7.2)
Analysis: Toronto's even-strength shot differential is disturbing. Boston is a big, physical team and if Toronto allows them to possess the puck the Bruins will have a chance to wear down the Leafs defenders.
Power Play:
Boston - 14.8%
Toronto - 18.7%
Penalty Kill:
Boston - 87.1%
Toronto - 87.9%
Analysis: Two of the NHL's best penalty-killing clubs meet up so don't look for a bunch of PP goals in this series. Boston has been horrible with the man-advantage anyway so this is perhaps one area that Toronto can make use to help cover for their 5v5 deficiencies.
Outlook: I don't like the way Boston has been playing of late but this is still a good hockey club. If they can get their game back on track I think they'll wear Toronto down in a long series. Toronto will need to do a better job of possessing the puck to diminish the impact the Boston forecheck can have on the Leaf defenders. It won't be easy.
The Pick: Boston in seven
Columbus Blue Jackets Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»