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Oh, Let's Just Keep Everyone! |
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The recent Horcoffmania since he's returned from injury has kept me laughing all week. Especially fun are the words of praise coming from Edmonton-area media, who, over the last three or four years, expressed feelings about this guy and his cap hit in the same terms I have. But let's not beat on Horcoff here...The issue with him is his contract, not the way he plays. He absolutely makes the Oilers a better team.
The Oilers are going into a contract summer with a number of players. In speaking to fans, everyone is, "well, we need to keep him!" I'm talking about guys like Sam Gagner, Ladislav Smid and Ryan Whitney. People at various points over time have yelled about the need to sign them long-term or the need to deal them ASAP. Add the Horcoff factor, and the way people feel about Ales Hemsky and Eric Belanger, and suddenly, we have a bit of a situation on our hands.
I've been paying close attention over the last week...Remember, I asked for feedback from fans as to what the Oilers should do...There were three primary messages that came from the majority of comments:
1. The Oilers need to bring in a Top 6 winger with size (Blues forward Chris Stewart and Sabres forward Drew Stafford were the two names most mentioned), and/or a Top 4 defenseman.
2. The Oilers need to keep everyone they currently have. Meaning, they need to acquire solid, immediate players like Stewart by dealing draft picks and prospects.
3. Oilers fans are sick to death of prospects and young players. They want management to go out and acquire immediate talent to improve the team now.
None of this is going to happen. Sorry to be a kill-joy.
I think to make sense of the situation, we need to discuss a few harsh realities about life for the Oilers. 1st is, this continues to be a Bottom 5 team in the NHL. As of this morning, they're in 26th. It's not like they can't move up...the entire Western Conference, excluding Chicago and Anaheim...is a massive log-jam in the standings. The Oilers are a huge long-shot to make the playoffs, but they won't necessarily be in the Bottom 5 by the end either. If I had to put odds on it, I'd say I'm 90% certain the Oilers will miss the playoffs, and finish around 10th in the west...So being Buyers at the deadline makes zero sense.
Contracts that need to be signed with the current roster going into 2013/2014
Sam Gagner - Gags has moved himself past the $4mil per season range, and seems to be moving closer by the day into the $5mil per season range. If the Oilers hurry up and get something done, they might be able to get five years/$4.5mil per. The only reason you'd do this, of course, is if you plan on actually keeping him for the next five years. The way he's playing, I would.
Ladislav Smid - Everyone is having a meltdown about Smid not being re-signed yet. MSM members are writing blogs and stories insisting he be re-signed. So fine, let's keep him. But what does he cost? On a long-term deal, let's say he gets $3.5mil per. I think it's too much but whatever. I've heard the player wants $4mil and the team is happier at $3mil. So will estimate in the middle for this discussion.
Magnus Paajarvi - He's certainly playing himself up the roster. Still not enough stats there to get him huge money. $1.5mil per on a re-sign for a couple seasons?
Teemu Hartikainen - He's not having the season people hoped he would, but you can see when he plays the pile of potential that exists. $1.2mil per on a two-year resign.
Mark Fistric - Bad start for Fistric in Edmonton, but he's exactly the brute 5/6 defenseman we needed to add. $1.6mil per over a couple seasons on a re-sign.
Ryan Jones - Not sure he gets a raise past his $1.5mil currently, so let's keep it there.
Lennart Petrell - Love this guy. Bump him to $1.1mil
Ryan Whitney - Saving the hardest to swallow until the end. $3mil per season? I have no idea how you pay this guy, as he's currently at $4mil per. He's not worth even close to that. But, there are teams out there, based on Whitney's history, that would pay him $3mil per. Whitney says he wants to stay in Edmonton, and keep in mind, I'm explaining what will happen if the Oilers keep everyone like most of you want.
Cap Situation after Re-Signs 2013/2014
Forwards (14)
Taylor Hall $6mil
Jordan Eberle $6mil
Shawn Horcoff $5.5mil
Ales Hemsky $5mil
Sam Gagner $4.5mil
Nail Yakupov $3.775mil
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins $3.775mil
Ryan Smyth $2.25mil
Eric Belanger $1.75mil
Magnus Paajarvi $1.5mil
Ryan Jones $1.5mil
Teemu Hartikainen $1.2mil
Lennart Petrell $1.1mil
Mike Brown $736,667
Total Cap Hit - $44.59mil
Defense(7)
Justin Schultz $3.775mil
Ladislav Smid $3.5mil
Nick Schultz $3.5mil
Ryan Whitney $3mil
Jeff Petry $1.75mil
Mark Fistric $1.6mil
Oscar Klefbom $1.275mil
Total Cap Hit - $18.375mil
Goal
Devan Dubnyk $3.5mil
Random Backup $1mil
Total Cap Hit - $4.5mil
Total Projected Team Cap Number 2013/2014: $67.465mil
Cap Ceiling will be $64.3mil, so this means the Oilers would be $3.165mil OVER the cap ceiling.
I hope I've triggered an "ah hah" moment, but in case I haven't, let me summarize: The Oilers, who are a Bottom 5 team now, will be over the cap limit if they re-sign everyone. So not only is it unlikely that they'll move up the standings (because the roster issues that exist aren't going to fix themselves), but the Oilers will need to move at least one big contract just to be allowed to play in the league.
Realistically, the Oilers need to shift two major contracts between now and the beginning of next season. This would allow them to make cap and add one player that can fill a glaring need. So who goes and who stays:
Ryan Whitney is the obvious one. His stretches of poor play and injury history make him the obvious choice. But with the number I've projected for Whitney, moving him doesn't even get us under the cap. Keep in mind we're talking Corey Potter and his $775K contract replacing him on the cap. So losing Whitney is only about a $2.225mil thing.
One of these guys (at least) is going to need to go: Sam Gagner, Shawn Horcoff, Ales Hemsky, Nick Schultz or Ladislav Smid. And doing this, along with Whitney, just makes it so the Oilers can fit under the cap comfortably, perhaps with room to add a mid-range player. Keep in mind that if Nick Schultz or Smid also is gone along with Whitney, the Oilers will need to bring in at least one defenseman who isn't terrible to replace them. I don't think Theo Peckham or Colten Teubert are ready to be a solution.
I don't know how you folks feel when you read all of this. Here's my reality: The Oilers need to choose between Ales Hemsky and Shawn Horcoff.
You're not going to deal Gagner...not the way he's playing. The Oilers need D too much to move Smid or Schultz. And none of the super kids are going anywhere until it's to bring an A level player, who likely has a huge contract, so there's no savings there.
The math says Whitney goes, and we need to pick between Hemsky and Horcoff. Hemsky is the better talent; Horcoff perhaps is more important to the team. Hemsky has a replacement already there in Nail Yakupov. Horcoff wouldn't have an immediate replacement (unless they draft in the Top 5) because the Oilers lack depth at center. Hemsky actually has a trade value; Horcoff doesn't.
It's easy to see what's about to happen here. It's not a matter of if; it's a matter of when.
The market could be fairly hot for Hemsky right now. When I say "hot" I mean the Oilers could get an actual prospect of quality or immediate NHL player. Boston could be a suitor, as could Pittsburgh (although I think they're all over Iginla). The Kings need to generate more offensive, he'd fit right into the Wings. Or then there's that Brandon Dubinsky guy from Columbus which would allow the Oilers to move Horcoff and Hemsky in the same year.
For the Oilers to make serious changes, they'd need to move some serious cash between here and the UFA start. If you want the Oilers to improve next season, aside from expecting more from the kids, we need our D to be better...Not sure if Smid and Nick Schultz have another level to go to. Should the Oilers pull a Dubinsky in a Hemsky deal, goodbye Horcoff, which opens up cap space a plenty. There's plenty of suggestion out there that the Oilers would love to sign UFA defenseman Mark Streit this summer, and that's not exactly going to come cheaply. Would you rather see Dubinsky and Streit be Oilers next season, or Hemsky and Horcoff? I know my vote.
I feel like apologizing for being a bubble-buster. After watching the Oilers throw away a win last night against Detroit I came to the conclusion that the talent is there in Edmonton, but the maturity and the brains still isn't. This team seems to play better when they are losing, and the fact they can't hold a lead speaks to a lack of leadership from both the players and the coaches. I think some serious changes are needed this summer, and fans need to be realistic about what that means. It means guys like Hemsky, or Horcoff, or Smid...might need to be sacrificed.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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