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Meltzer's Musings: Desperation, Expectations vs. Realities

March 14, 2013, 7:01 AM ET [964 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Regular readers of my blog know that one of my pet peeves in hockey lingo is coaches, players and announcers parroting the phrase that a win-starved team "needs to play with desperation tonight."

What they REALLY mean is the club needs to play with a focused sense of urgency that doesn't dissipate even if the club faces some adversity against a tough opponent. You know what happens when a team plays with true desperation? You get a performance like the one the Flyers turned in last night in getting trounced, 5-2, by the Devils.

A desperate club plays with early energy but makes reckless, low-percentage plays. A desperate club doesn't know how to stop the bleeding and get back on track when things don't go their way. Instead, they compound the problem with bad penalties, lack of puck support and trying to do too much as individuals offensively.

A desperate hockey team is, well, one that is in a state of despair. The players stop
believing in one another and many individuals have lost confidence even in their own abilities. Such a club often has tuned out its coach, and every strategic or personnel management button he pushes seems to be the wrong one.

The Philadelphia Flyers are 12-15-1 with 20 games left in the nightmarish lockout shortened season. They are a desperate team, and that is NOT a good thing.

Last night's outcome was not a case of key players "not caring" or the team "coming out flat". I thought it was obvious how badly the Flyers wanted that game -- but wanting and doing are two separate things. There is a process involved in winning, and very little the Flyers did was conducive to it.

Go back and watch the first period again (if you can stomach it). Peter Laviolette and the assistant coaches had clearly done a lot of prep work with the team in trying to get the puck up the ice faster against New Jersey and pressuring the puck on the forecheck. Flyers players WERE up on their skates in that stanza. Unfortunately, they were also running around with no sense of direction.

Three forwards got trapped low time and time again when New Jersey would break out, creating 3-on-2 chances. On several occasions, Flyers defensemen would make ill-advised pinches that would turn 3-on-2s into even more dangerous 2-on-1 (or 3-on-1 with a trailer) opportunities. On Philadelphia breakout chances and line rushes, the gap control was lacking and the Flyers made themselves vulnerable to takeaways or panicky giveaways.

None of these are new issues. They've plagued the team all year.

I have been critical of the play of Ilya Bryzgalov over the last six weeks, but I don't think goaltending was a factor in last night's outcome. Of the five goals New Jersey scored, there was only one (Andrei Loktionov's toe-drag shot) where I thought it was a potentially makeable save that got through. Bryzgalov did make himself a bit small in his net on Adam Henrique's backhander upstairs in the third period but that was a real good shot from good scoring position; and the outcome was already decided by then anyway.

The real backbreaking goal for the Flyers last night was Ilya Kovalchuk's breakaway shorthanded goal late in the first period. Matt Read got a bad bounce trying to hold the puck in along the wall. Once it got past Read, you knew what was coming next. Kovalchuk snapped an absolutely vicious shot right under the crossbar -- lighting quick release, lots of steam on it, perfect placement -- that no goaltender was going to stop.

Philly really missed the presence of flu-riddled Luke Schenn last night. Two-thirds of the defense -- Andrej Meszaros, Bruno Gervais, Braydon Coburn and the sparingly used Kurtis Foster -- were atrocious with and without the puck. Nicklas Grossmann was OK, apart from causing a 2-on-1 in the first period with an ill-advised pinch-for-the-hit attempt. At least Grossmann was taking some Devils off the puck one-on-one and making good first passes. Kimmo Timonen had a good game, and was Philly's best defenseman in the game.

Up front, the Flyers were also an utter mess last night. Let's start with the positives such as they were.

Jakub Voracek bagged a nice power play goal and assisted on Scott Hartnell's third period goal that made it a 5-2 final. It was just Hartnell's second goal of the season, the team's first even strength goal in 10-plus periods and their first third period goal (of any variety) in the month of March.

Wayne Simmonds skated with unwavering moxie and never gave up on the game, even when the score got out of hand. Zac Rinaldo did a good job of throwing his body around in a controlled manner and drew a couple penalties on New Jersey. I thought Ruslan Fedotenko quietly had a strong game on the penalty kill and along the walls.

Beyond that, I'm at a loss to find any positives. The decision to put struggling Danny Briere with fellow veteran Simon Gagne and scuffling young center Sean Couturier backfired last night as the line ended up for three goals against while scoring none. Briere is pointless and minus-eight over the team's last five games.

Claude Giroux had a quiet and largely ineffective offensive game last night, apart from some good puck movement on the sequence leading up to the Voracek power play goal. Last night's game was one where he really HAD to individually step up to turn the momentum around, and the Devils kept him contained.

Late goal aside, Hartnell played an out of control game last night. There was no doubting how hard he was trying to be the tone setter for his team but he didn't go about it with any sort of a game plan. When he wasn't piling up the minor penalties, Hartnell was either getting in teammates'way by ending up on the wrong side of the ice or pulling pucks off the walls successfully only to immediately force them out to where there were only red jerseys.

Go up and down the Flyers' lineup. There were very few, if any, players who didn't care what was going on and weren't trying to compete. Sadly, they were clueless about what do about getting the horse back in the barn once it started to run away.

That's the desperation of a team that has no real identity beyond an "attack system" that is ill-suited to the collection of players who have been assembled for this year's team. Lack of cohesion and team defense is not an identity; or at least not one to aspire to.

**********

2013 PRE-SEASON EXPECTATIONS VS. REALITIES: FLYERS FORWARDS

Claude Giroux

Expectations: Play at a Hart Trophy caliber level to further build off his outstanding 2012-13 season. Emerging instantly as a great captain.

Reality: He's sporadically played at a true elite level but has more often been inconsistent both offensively and in his five-on-five defensive play. On the positive side, he's become a top-notch faceoff man on a team that struggles otherwise to win draws.


Jakub Voracek

Expectations: Build on his strong stretch run and playoff from last year and taking over the first line right wing spot successfully from free agent departure Jaromir Jagr.

Reality: He had some early conditioning issues in camp but has really come on as the season has progressed. Easily the Flyers' most consistent offensive weapon this year. Is now shooting pucks with confidence and purpose as well as setting up teammates. Occasionally prone to some low-percentage plays with the puck in dangerous areas, but that's a relatively minor complaint in a breakout season.

Scott Hartnell

Expectations: Play at a similar pace to his career season of 2012-13.

Reality: Lost a month of hockey due to a broken foot suffered in the third game of the regular season. He's largely struggled since his return.


Danny Briere

Expectations: Score clutch goals and step up in big games; avoid lengthy slumps where his defensive shortcomings are not even partially offset by his offense.

Reality: Started out the season on IR. Has experienced more frustration than success since getting into the lineup. Did have a stretch of points in seven of eight games (Feb. 16 to March 2, three goals and six assists for nine points) but that was book-ended by a pair of deep slumps.


Wayne Simmonds

Expectations: Continue to develop his power forward game, scoring at a similar or even superior pace to 2011-12.

Reality: He has done just that for the most part. Still has room for improvement defensively, especially in the areas near the two bluelines.


Matt Read

Expectations: Play an effective, speedy two-way game. Move around the lineup as needed. Produce at a level similar to his rookie season last year.

Reality: Read was an early bright spot despite the team's struggles. Got set back by a rib injury, returning ahead of schedule. He has not recovered his game as of yet, but there have been signs of progress.


Brayden Schenn

Expectations: Build on second half of rookie NHL season and learn from his experience of anchoring Phantoms' top line during the lockout.

Reality: It's been an up-and-down campaign. Schenn started out the season on Claude Giroux's right wing, struggled and quickly moved his way down the lineup. Put too much pressure on himself early on and was not playing well at either end of the ice. Worked through it, and played very well for majority of February. Despite some good shifts each game, has struggled again offensively in March (no goals, one assist, minus-seven). He has improved defensively since the start of his rookie year last year, but is still a work in progress in that area. Needs to be involved around the net to be effective offensively.


Sean Couturier

Expectations: Emerge one step closer to Selke Trophy contention and continue to build on the offensive potential he showed in a supporting role as a rookie last year.

Reality: He's had a major sophomore slump. Couturier has struggled mightily in the offensive zone. Not even his defensive play has been to the same level as a year ago, although he turned in several consecutive strong weeks in that regard after a tough opening week. Still a good penalty killer but needs improvement on faceoffs. Offensive confidence is way down and he's not venturing anywhere near the scoring areas anymore.


Simon Gagne

Expectations: When reacquired from Los Angeles, the hope was that he could still produce a bit of offense (albeit not at the level of his prime), use his speed effectively and turn in solid two-way play.

Reality: The jury is still out. He had a great return game to Philly but has been largely quiet offensively ever since then. He did score one (seemingly stoppable) goal in the win over Buffalo last weekend and his skating ability and willingness to backcheck remain intact.


Max Talbot

Expectations: Provide strong two-way play both in defensive and forechecking situations, combine with Couturier to play shutdown defense. Some dropoff from his career-high 19 goal scoring pace of last year was likely but the expectation was that he could produce at a prorated 12-14 goal pace.

Reality: His own-zone defensive play and penalty killing have been fine after some early hiccups in January. However, the forechecking and transitional game has not been nearly as good as last year, and the volume of his scoring chances (let alone actual goals) has dropped off correspondingly. Last year, Talbot was one of the Flyers best tone setters apart from his surprising goal totals. This year, he's done little of that.


Zac Rinaldo

Expectations: Throw his body around and agitate but draw more penalties on the opposition while taking fewer trips to the box himself.

Reality: There is no guarantee he won't slip up at some point, but he's generally done exactly what the team has wanted. His hits have mostly been clean; and very frequent. He hustles every second of every shift and has continued to get better defensively. Still gets some "reputation penalties" but those have decreased a bit as he has continued to make efforts to keep his hits clean and complain less about the calls that do go against him. Still presents a cocky, mouthy demeanor to opponents.


Ruslan Fedotenko

Expectations: Work hard on the boards, kill penalties, chip pucks out of the defensive zone and avoid mistakes in five-on-five play. Was not expected to produce much offense in his late-career fourth-line defensive specialist role, but there was at least a hope that he could pop maybe four or five goals in the 48-game season.

Reality: He's done his job, though some fans clamor for him to be pulled from the lineup due to a lack of offensive production. He doesn't stand out very often, but that's actually a good thing. Fedotenko's plus-six rating leads the entire team, and it's not just a fluke of a flawed hockey stat. He often makes safe plays that short-circuit long shifts spent in his own end of the ice. At absolute least, he's played on par with Talbot's performance that season. If and when the Flyers go into seller mode, Fedotenko will be an easy player to trade to a contending team (for a mid-round draft pick if traded alone or perhaps packaged along with other vets for a higher return).


Mike Knuble

Expectations: The 40-year-old was brought back as a stopgap measure after Hartnell went down. The hope was that there was just enough left in the tank for Knuble to pop a few timely goals in a supporting role and do some grunt work on the offensive and defensive boards. Also brought in for his analytical, articulate locker room presence as a means of mentoring some of the young players (a role that Jagr played last year).

Reality: The tank looked to be on empty. Did score one game-winning goal and still willing to dig for pucks. However, his lack of skating ability became glaring as he sometimes struggled to keep up with the pace of play. Still a great guy off the ice, but it's impossible to re-establish yourself as part of the leadership group when you are a temporary hired hand who has become a nightly healthy scratch.

***********

Coming on Saturday: Defensemen 2013 Pre-Season Expectations vs. Realities.

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