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Meltzer's Musings: Rout on the Island, O'Reilly Rumor

February 19, 2013, 8:52 AM ET [726 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
The Philadelphia Flyers took a month's worth of frustrations out on the New York Islanders yesterday, massacring their Atlantic Division rivals by a 7-0 score and limiting them to 19 shots for the game. While it is only the first step in the road to recovery of the shortened season, Philly could hardly have drawn up a better outcome to the Presidents' Day matinee at the Nassau County Coliseum.

As badly as things went in the team's previous five periods of hockey -- getting outscored by the Devils and Canadiens by a combined 8-1 score -- that's how lopsided yesterday's game was in Philly's favor. Amazing what happens when hockey players keep their feet moving and support one another. The team becomes the predators instead of the prey.

From a Philadelphia perspective, it was tremendous to see Claude Giroux and his linemates put the captain's postgame words on Saturday into action. Giroux's goal on the first shift of the game was almost cathartic for the entire club. The combination of Giroux, Jakub Voracek and Matt Read proved to be nothing short of dominant throughout the match.

Unlike the game in Toronto, in which the Flyers scored quickly and played a decent first period only to collapse in the middle stanza, Philadelphia was relentless against the Islanders. Killing off a 5-on-3 disadvantage in the first period was the second pivotal point in how the game ultimately turned out. The Flyers' penalty kill had already been one of the few areas that had been looking good of late, but the Islanders' second-ranked power play has been a rough customer for most every team in the NHL.

The third key to the game ultimately turning into a rout was the Flyers scoring on the first shift of the second period. On this one, afte Nicklas Grossmann put the puck at the net, all three members of the Giroux line hungrily swarmed around Evgeni Nabokov, with all three members getting their stick on the puck before Matt Read slam dunked both the puck and himself along the ice.

Read's goal at the 15 second mark of the middle stanza opened up the floodgates for Philly. Brayden Schenn added a power play goal from the medium slot about eight shifts later. Before the period ended, Giroux made the game outcome a foregone conclusion. Once again Voracek (four assists in the game) was the key playmaker, and Giroux showed some good patience and soft hands. The captain protected the puck near the goal post, pulled it back out in front and then tucked it home.

The only real suspense in the third period was whether Ilya Bryzgalov would be able to earn the shutout. Lest it be forgotten in the wake of goal-scoring bonanza and relatively low shot total for the Islanders that Bryzgalov had to make several tough saves while it was still a competitive hockey game. Most notably, he denied a 2-on-1 rush.

Bryzgalov's shutout was the 30th of his NHL career, and it came in his 400th career regular season game. It was his seventh shutout since joining the Flyers last season.

Any competitive drive that may have been left in the Islanders on this day was drained out them early in the third period when the Flyers' fourth line scored off the line rush. Harry Zolnierczyk put on a burst of speed past the defense and drew the besieged Nabokov out of the net. From there, Zolnierczyk centered a pass to an onrushing Zac Rinaldo. With an entirely open net in front of him, Rinaldo had an easy goal.

Danny Briere completed the rout with a mid-period power play goal and a late-game even strength tally on the line rush. The first goal was scored from his favorite spot, hiding out behind the goal line and then stepping out a half stride in front of the goal line to score. The second goal was scored in the top right quadrant of the net to the short side.

The Flyers revamped the lineup yesterday. Up front, Peter Laviolette made the somewhat surprising decision to make Tye McGinn a healthy scratch, dress Zolnierczyk and put Voracek on the Giroux line with Wayne Simmonds moving down in the lineup. He broke up the struggling defense pairing of Braydon Coburn and Bruno Gervais, putting Coburn back with Nicklas Grossmann and also giving Coburn a variety of shifts with Erik Gustafsson.

Seven goals, a shutout, a five-for-five performance on the penalty kill against a dangerous power play team, a successful 5-on-3 kill, 2-for-4 on the power play, a 25-13 advantage in credited hits, and a 23-8 edge in blocked shots. I'd call that a pretty good day's work.

Now the Flyers need to duplicate the process against the Pittsburgh Penguins on Wednesday. Regardless of the scoring total -- most games, you won't get five goals, let alone seven -- it is the process itself that ultimately leads to the result.

Here's the process: The team's best players show why they're considered the best players. The team gets strong goaltending. There is a commitment to tough but smart physical play. There is generally solid team defense (no team can be perfect). The club bears down on both ends of special teams. The players demonstrate consistent puck support in all man power situations. The team is hungry for the puck and they keep their feet moving rather than coasting. Forwards crash the net and hustle to backcheck.

To steal a line from Rocky Balboa, "That's how winnin' is done!"

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Ever since Ren Lavoie reported that the Flyers are among the teams interested in acquiring Ryan O'Reilly from Colorado -- with Colorado reportedly demanding Sean Couturier in return -- I have been flooded by requests for comment on whether I think the Flyers should do it.

My answer: No.

I like O'Reilly. He's a solid two-way center who consistently hustles, and is good on faceoffs (52.8 percent last year). He just turned 22, had 55 points last year, logs a lot of ice time in all manpower situations (19:55 per game in his third NHL season) and figures to be a good player in the NHL for a long time to come. O'Reilly plays a disciplined game and while not a physical player, he is not afraid to take a hit to make a play.

So why wouldn't I want to see the Flyers consider swapping Couturier for a slightly older center who brings a lot of his own desirable attributes?

First of all, Couturier's upside is still higher than O'Reilly's. Couturier has had some rough moments in his second pro season, but his upside is still that of a potential future Selke Trophy winner with 25-goal potential -- and he's already demonstrated that rare level of two-way talent in the playoffs last year by containing Evgeni Malkin head-to-head and also having a hat trick game in the same playoff series.

At his current level of NHL stature, I consider O'Reilly to be a somewhat better version of former Flyers forward R.J. Umberger. That, to me at least, is a compliment.

Umberger is a real solid NHL player who has been buried on mostly bad Columbus teams. People forget that he was a 20-goal scorer as an NHL rookie in Philly (in a third-line role), had a tendency to step up in big games (think Montreal playoff series in 2008 and his history of success in his hometown of Pittsburgh), and made himself into a good solid two-way player. Umberger has had four straight seasons of 20-plus goals in Columbus and three season of 50-plus points, topping out at 57 points in 2010-11. He is a real solid NHL player whom any team would like to have. Although he has mostly played wing in recent years, he can also center.

I know what people will say: "Yeah, but isn't O'Reilly's offensive potential considerably higher than that? O'Reilly reached the NHL at a younger age that Umberger, who played collegiate hockey for three years and whose first pro year coincided with the canceled 2004-05 NHL season. So doesn't O'Reilly figure to keep bumping up his point totals?"

Not necessarily. O'Reilly's offensive pedigree is still somewhat dubious in terms of predicting him to be a bonafide top-six caliber offensive forward on a Cup-contending team; unless said team has a Devils-style system.

My rule of thumb when it comes to pre-NHL production is that offensive dominance at lower levels is far from a guarantee of high-level NHL offensive production, but the LACK of true offensive dominance at the lower levels is usually a pretty good indication that the player will not become a year-in-and-year-old offensive force in the NHL.

O'Reilly was never as much as a point-per-game player in the OHL, and never scored 20 goals in junior hockey. He gave little indication in his first two NHL seasons of developing into more than an outstanding third-line player with above-average offensive ability for that role. Even in his "breakout" year last year, O'Reilly's 55-point production was nothing all that special when you consider how much ice time he was logging in offense-friendly as well as defensive situations.

In terms of his future offensive upside, I don't think O'Reilly is ever going to produce much more than he did a year ago. Could he bump up his points in a given year to perhaps 65 points in a career season? Maybe, may not. But I see him as an Umberger level offensive talent, who is a little better playmaker but a slightly lesser finisher. With both guys, I think what you saw in the early years offensively will also be what you get in the prime.

O'Reilly is a good passer but his shot is average to below average. I don't think people realize just how good Couturier's hands actually are when he's got the puck in scoring range. Couturier just needs to be more assertive in getting himself into scoring areas when the chance presents itself. He had a five-game goal scoring streak as a rookie last year, and four of the five were sniper-type goals.

Defensively, O'Reilly can help out any team. He is very responsible with and without the puck and his hockey sense can be statistically supported by his phenomenal takeaway-to-giveaway ratio (101 to 34). At this stage of his career, Couturier is still learning what works and doesn't work in the faceoff circle, while O'Reilly was over 50 percent even on the road a year ago.

At his very best, however, Couturier (who is four inches taller than O'Reilly with comparable and perhaps even superior hockey sense) is a cornerstone two-way player. There will come a time in his NHL career when the offensive lightbulb turns on more than sporadically, and he fine-tunes even his defensive game. When that time comes, Couturier is going to be a player in the tier above O'Reilly.

Think of it as the difference between Jordan Staal and Umberger (if R.J. was still a center). Or let's say that both Couturier and O'Reilly both get MUCH better offensively and hit a grand slam in exceeding their current career offensive projections. Then you can think of it as the difference between Joe Nieuwendyk and (a less physical) Rod Brind'Amour.

Either which way, Couturier ends up as the better player in the comparison. That doesn't mean, though, that O'Reilly would not be a fine addition. It just means that I would not make a one-for-one swap of Couturier for him.

There is another, just as significant reason, why I would not want to see the Flyers deal Couturier for O'Reilly: The Flyers' salary cap situation.

Couturier still has a year to go on his entry-level contract. O'Reilly is an unsigned restricted free agent who is reportedly demanding a deal that could carry a cap hit as high as $5 million. Said cap hit would also start immediately, and would worsen the Flyers' already existing problem of preparing for the cap ceiling to drop next year.

That alone makes the rumored trade discussion a no-go from the Flyers standpoint, unless it becomes a larger deal with salary moving to Colorado and additional assets coming back to Philadelphia.

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