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Morning Buzz: The Rumor Biz, Trading for Star D, and More |
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I am continuing to stay plugged in several trade rumors I'm chasing today. Aiming for a big update this evening.
In the meantime, I thought it was a good time to talk about the bigger picture of trade rumors and the particular niche of the hockey writing business that I have. It has always been my policy to NOT filter or editorialize on the rumors that get passed along to me.
I may hear that Player X with a no-movement clause is available despite his hot start to the season and Team Y that is already deep at that position and doesn't "seem" to be a good trade fit is one of the interested teams.
In my head, I may think, "I just don't see this happening." But I don't put my own opinion on it in a rumor blog, though I may at some point write a separate editorial blog where I pass along my own views of a situation. But strictly in terms of reporting rumors, I just pass it along with the E-number system to represent how close to the situation the source of the rumor is.
I also rarely talk about what may be going the other way in potential trades. Yes, I do hear rumors in this regard, too, but that's something that I only ever consider broaching when the trade process.... and it often a much longer and more drawn out process than many people realize... is in its TRUE end game stage.
Last but not least, rumors have very short shelf lives, especially when it comes to denials. In fact, the higher up the denial comes from, the more "it's not happening" could really mean "it's not happening in the next hour or so" and the more "we haven't had discussions about that player" could really mean "we haven't had discussions about that player today... but I'm waiting on a call about that player."
That's what makes this business so fun and so frustrating at times. Lots and lots of tea leaf reading in trying to figure out when something actually WILL happen. It also takes some sheer luck to get info at exactly the right time (because hockey people only speak in "at this very moment" terms, which some might characterize as half-truths but is just the nature of the business). It's not a science. It's partially an art (and like any art, requires constant practice to get better at doing) and partially hustle to put yourself in position to be in the right place at the right time.
I know that long-time HB readers have heard me say all this before. But people often ask me why there are often so many false alarms along the way to a trade actually happening, and it's because teams are often waiting on particular contingencies to fall in place. There is also a BIG chance that a team that has barely been in trade talks at all about a particular player has been monitoring things from afar and then acts quickly to make the deal happen. There a LOT of curveballs pitched in this ballgame.
One piece of advice I pass along to HockeyBuzz writers who ask me about what to do with trade rumors or their own speculative trade ideas is to be both objective and daring. In other words if a trade sounds outlandish, say it seems outlandish but then say here's why you think it could actually be a good idea.
Some of our team writers are established professional hockey writers and others are well on their way to that career if they choose to fully pursue it. Other writers take more of "fan" perspective. Different flavors, different voices. I personally see it as a good thing.
From time to time, some of our bloggers dabble in trade proposals or commentary on already-rumored deals involving their teams. Take those for what they are... one person's opinion, one person's spin, one person starting a conversation (or even a debate) on our message boards.
In the broader context of what's actually going on in the hockey world, one thing that I've absolutely noticed (as have many, many others) is that defensemen come at a major, major premium whether in terms of contract cost or trading price. Overpayments are the norm, and a huge part of the reason why teams league-wide are trying to lock up every half-decent defenseman they have into long-term deals is that it is MORE expensive to trade for or sign free agent equivalent players much less acquire an upgrade.
When it comes to trades for high-end defensemen who are in the primes of their career or are about to hit their primes in a year or two, the cost right now is astronomical. When I hear about particular defensemen being available and the level of compensation being demanded in return.... well, it's mind-boggling at times.
I will give you an example. Last year at the draft, it was widely rumored that Phoenix was willing to listen to offers for All-Star defenseman Keith Yandle. But as soon as other teams heard what the Coyotes had in mind as reasonable compensation.... basically the equivalent of what the Nashville Predators wanted to even consider trading the rights to then-RFA Shea Weber... well, they soon realized they needed to look in other directions. Yandle is an All-Star, but Weber was and in is that the rare highest tier: the Norris-caliber defenseman in his prime.
But here's the thing: Phoenix GM Don Maloney had a one percent accurate read on the market. For one thing, he was (and still is) under zero pressure to unload Yandle regardless of his cap hit and regardless of the team having needs up front while being deep on the blueline. He is the one who has something other teams covet: a bonafide All-Star defenseman in his mid-20s with a contract that runs through 2016. He's the one who also has burgeoning star Oliver Ekman-Larsson on his roster.
As such, Phoenix holds all the cards, and was (and still is) able to demand a king's ransom to even fathom moving one of their top-pairing caliber defensemen. A team that covets one of those guys enough will wince through the pain of what they'll have to give up. Short of that, there would be zero reason for the Coyotes to do anything other than stay with they already have.
Of course, it's not just Phoenix. It's any team that is fortunate enough to have a healthy All-Star defenseman or even a top shutdown defenseman under their long-term contractual control or at least are young enough to be multiple years away from being UFA eligible.
If you want to acquire one of those guys, they may be available. The rumors are out there for even top quality defensemen, and I will keep passing them along because some of these deals may happen. My point is simply this: Don't get sticker-shock, my friends, because trading defensemen right now is hockey's ultimate sellers' market.
OK... enough philosophizing for now..... back to the phones. More to come!
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