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Oilers Not Interested in Luongo, Might Be Interested in O'Reilly?

January 23, 2013, 8:30 PM ET [497 Comments]
Richard Cloutier
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
I spent much of the day calling around my buddies trying to find out if the Roberto Luongo to the Oilers for Sam Gagner had any truth to it. Eventually I received some information that makes way too much sense for it not to be legitimate.

Let's start with Devan Dubnyk, because the only reason the Oilers would move for a goalie is if they weren't happy with the one they have now.

I was reassured today that the Oilers HAVE NO INTEREST at this time on moving Dubnyk. The team wants to give him the season as the starter to see if he fits into the long-term plan or not. Even though Dubnyk let in a soft goal against Vancouver, and one or two against the Sharks yesterday, no one in Oilersville is panicked. The team feels they've put lots of time, effort and money into developing Dubnyk, and it would be a complete waste if they moved him without giving him a fair chance at the starter's job.

I'm not saying the Oilers are completely sold on Dubnyk yet, because they aren't. They just feel it's too soon to give up on him.

Moving on to Roberto Luongo, it was confirmed to me this afternoon that the Oilers have absolutely no interest in acquiring Luongo, mostly because of his contract. But there's more to this story than just Luongo, apparently.

I feel a "Remember When" speech coming on...

Remember when the Oilers signed Michael Nylander, only to find out he signed with a different team? Who was his agent at the time? Current Vancouver GM Mike Gillis. It was Gillis who screwed up the deal: He emailed Oilers management to let them know Nylander was coming to Edmonton, only to use the Oilers "offer" to pressure the Capitals into making a different deal. It worked...for everyone, actually. Nylander and Gillis screwed the Oilers, but karma is a female dog. Nylander's career completely fell apart at that point, and it ended up being the best non-deal ever to happen for Edmonton.

There's no love for Gillis in Edmonton. I'll go so far as to say KLowe and company have no want or willingness to make any deals with the Vancouver organization. Keep in mind how Steve Tambellini ended up getting here: He was more or less pushed out of the Canucks organization by Gillis. Pardon my French, but it sounds like Gillis is a real jerk. Like team, like GM I guess.

The Sam Gagner to Vancouver for Luongo rumor is something Canucks management have fabricated in an effort to help create some sort of market for him. The awful truth is, Luongo has a terrible contract and a NTC, so the few teams that might be interested are offering absolutely nothing in return. Gillis is on record this week saying he will not take back a bad contract as part of a Luongo deal...hence why Luongo is still a Canuck. You better believe a deal from, let's say, the Leafs, would include Mike Komisarek's fugly contract. If the Oilers were interested (which they aren't) you better believe Shawn Horcoff would need to be part of the deal, since the Oilers plan on just buying the guy out this summer. Luongo's trade value is almost more negative than positive.

Gillis like the rest of the NHL is very aware of the value of social media and bloggers like me. He throws out a story to someone, they run with it assuming Gillis has some character and isn't just manipulating them. If a "respected" blogger posts the rumor, other bloggers will run with it, and suddenly, the Oilers are interested in Luongo. This is followed by Leafs GM Dave Nonis saying, "geez, if the Oilers are offering Gagner, we better offer Morgan Rielly+"...The theory is, eventually Gillis gets an acceptable deal. Problem is, everyone on the inside knows what he is up to, and doesn't believe the hype. Outside of giving bloggers something to write about, the only thing Gillis is doing is creating a huge distraction for the players on his team. Stupid is as stupid does.

Seriously, the Oilers are really, really, really not interested in Luongo.

If they do end up replacing Dubnyk, it will be in the summer, unless he is completely horrifying over a 20 or 30 game stretch. If they do replace him, it would likely be either a UFA signing or a deal for someone who fits with the age of the Oilers core players. Even if the Oilers would be better off with Luongo, his contract is a disaster that would come back to haunt the Oilers in all sorts of ways.

I was told today that Gillis is calling teams offering Luongo, not the other way around. He called the Oilers, and apparently what he asked for was absolutely outrageous. Let's just say it wasn't Sam Gagner. I can see Kevin Lowe putting Gillis on hands free so he and the boys could make faces and giggle as he explained what he wanted.

Okay, so that's one rumor shot down. My phone calls brought up a different idea that I'm going to turn into a rumor, because it's fun.

It's been apparent to me for some time that Sam Gagner just isn't the center the Oilers need on their second line. In saying this, I'm not saying Gagner is bad, because he isn't. This has as much to do with who the Oilers 1st line center is than it does about Gagner. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins plays pretty hockey. We've discussed this before. He's more Gretzky than Messier. Sam Gagner is a not as good version of Nuge. The Oilers need two different types of centers to make their Top 6 work. Having Nuge and Nuge-Lite is a bad idea.

Consider how power-play units are coached. The Oilers have two different units who use two different set-ups. As we saw on Tuesday, one set is designed to have Justin Schultz sneak in and to unload shots from the point or closer. Horcoff is in the corner digging for pucks; Hall and Eberle crash the net; Nuge is the guy passing the puck to Schultz for the bomb. The second look is designed around Ryan Smyth creating crease chaos and Hemsky making cross-ice passes to Yakupov because the boy has a lazer. Best one-shot scorer I've seen on the Oilers since Kurri. The reason a team develops two different looks is so if one isn't working, maybe the other will click. The Oilers still might fail in the standings this season, but their power-play is going to excel.

The Oilers with two lines playing the same style of hockey is a bad idea. They need one pretty line, and one that is more gritty. Think about the cup winning years: Gretzky's line was poetry; Messier line was thrash metal. If one line wasn't scoring, chances are, the other was. Teams could rarely shut both lines down, which resulted in many Oiler wins.

Gagner, Hemsky and Yakupov as a line is not particularly gritty. Eventually, something will need to be changed. Hemsky, when healthy, is just too talented to get rid of yet. Yakupov is special because of his release. I get the feeling eventually the Oilers Top 6 will be Hartikainen with Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle, and Hall + Yakupov with a center not named Sam Gagner. #93 and #14 could use a brute with them, and Hall + Yakupov would be the fastest line ever.

So the odd man out...Is Gagner.

Enter Ryan O'Reilly.

It's not that O'Reilly is much bigger than Gagner...maybe two inches taller and five pounds heavier. But he's a better two-way forward; grittier; a better skater...I'd suggest there's no way the Oilers could get O'Reilly, but he doesn't seem too interested in re-signing with Colorado. I was told today a contract demand for O'Reilly could be $4.5mil per season over 5 years. That's plenty to pay for a guy who has only one 50+ point season. Maybe moving him is Colorado's only option.

So here's the next question: What would it take to get him? Because chances are, the Avs wouldn't do Gagner straight up. Would Gagner and a 2nd round pick do it? Gagner and a prospect? Could Gabriel Landeskog get Anton Lander going? The Avs could ask much for O'Reilly and get it. The Oilers most certainly would need to outbid their competition to get the player.

As much as I'd like the Oilers to add O'Reilly, they aren't going to move Hall, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, Yakupov or Schultz. I can't see them moving Oscar Klefbom, Ladislav Smid, Jeff Petry or Nick Schultz, either. You tell me: What would you offer up with Sam Gagner to acquire Ryan O'Reilly?
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