The Dallas Stars appear to be a little weaker on defense than they were heading into last season. While the team will be able to ice a lineup with six bonafide NHL defensemen, the club could really use more size and a shutdown blueliner to play against other teams' top lines. Another big shot from the point (to replace Sheldon Souray's) wouldn't hurt, either.
Currently, the Stars' starting depth chart on defense figures to break down something like this barring injuries or other acquisitions:
1. Alex Goligoski
2. Stephane Robidas
3. Trevor Daley
4. Philip Larsen or Mark Fistric
5. Fistric or Larsen
6. Aaron Rome
7. Jordie Benn or Brenden Dillon (possibly Jamie Oleksiak or Patrik Nemeth)
Although I like both Goligoski and Robidas individually, I have never liked them much as a pairing when they've been used together. They're too small and, although Robidas has become a decent two-way player over the years, neither one would ever be called a shutdown defenseman.
Last year, Goligoski was set back last season by a mid-November broken thumb. There is reason to be confident he will return to the form he showed in 2010-12 after coming over from Pittsburgh in the deal that sent James Neal and Matt Niskanen to the Penguins. He still needs to continue to improve in his own end of the ice and cut down on the some of the giveaways.
Robidas is still a fine puck-mover and minutes eater (22:45 average TOI last season) but the 35-year-old defenseman looked worn out over the course of last season and was not particularly good in his stint in Finland during the lockout. Robidas always competes but he's in chronic peril of getting outmuscled by bigger forwards. He needs a bigger partner than Goligoski -- such as Sheldon Souray in 2011-12 or Nicklas Grossmann the previous season -- to cancel out some of that built-in physical disadvantage.
Daley is short and not routinely physical (he can be when he wants) but has a sturdy build and good mobility. He's always been a sort of a tweener defenseman in his playing style; somewhere in between a puck-mover with a bit of offensive pop and sometimes more of a defensive-minded D. I've always liked him as a second-pairing guy for the Stars and I think he's a bit underrated around the NHL as one of the better guys in that 3/4 role.
Fistric's calling card will always be his big hitting game. When he plays under control and his minutes aren't extended too much (the 16:30 per game he played last season is just about perfect for him), he can be highly effective. He needs to play with a good puckhandler, though, and sometimes he gets a little carried away in looking for hits at the expense of getting out of position. He's well-cast in either the No. 4 or No.5 spot, but is probably best off as a third-pairing (i.e., number 5) defender.
I love Larsen's mobility and ability to trigger the breakout. He came along nicely last season, and there is reason for optimism that his average 17:57 TOI from last season can be extended in the near future. That said, there is still a lot of room for growth and both ends of the ice, and his learning curve is ongoing with some more growing pains yet to come. There are some red flags that the slightly-built Dane could be an injury risk each season if he doesn't protect himself a little better. He's courageous but he's on the receiving end of some frightful hits out there.
There's no mystery with Rome. He's big and strong, plays a physical brand of hockey and keeps his game simple. I think he can give the Stars more out of him than they got out of Adam Pardy last season. But Rome is strictly a serviceable 6th or 7th defenseman. He's not someone who is going to play the shutdown role that the Stars desperately need one or two of their defenseman to step up and perform.
The 21-year-old Dillon has the potential to someday evolve into one of those undrafted rookie free agents who makes other NHL teams kick themselves for bypassing him in the Draft. He had an impressive rookie season in the AHL last year, where the big blueliner carried over the combination of physical play and modicum of offensive ability that made him an overage standout in the WHL. I don't think it's going to be a quick process, however, and I think he'll be more of a strictly defensive D at the NHL level.
Jordie Benn has shown that he's an above-average AHL offensive defenseman and he held his own in his limited action with the big club (earning a pair of assists in three games). However, the 25-year-old is still a bit suspect in his own end of the ice and his NHL upside appears rather limited. If he has a future as an NHL teammate with his brother, it will likely be in a 7th defenseman or secondary power play specialist role.
In the longer term, I the Stars have an above-average crop of defense prospects in the farm system. The question is whether anyone will be able to contribute this season at the NHL level.
Dallas is understandably high on the raw promise of 2011 first-round pick Jamie Oleksiak. He has exceeded expectations as a rookie in the AHL during the lockout (15 points, plus-three rating in 35 games). However, patience is still necessary with a 20-year-old player whom the organization eventually projects as a top-pairing NHL defenseman. There are still growing pains to deal with at the professional level.
The organization is also excited about the potential of 2010 2nd-rounder Patrik Nemeth to someday emerge as a Mattias Norström or Nicklas Grossmann type of defensive defenseman. In 31 AHL games this season, Nemeth has produced seven assists and a plus-six rating. His no-frills game has translated well to the smaller ice. Again, however, you are talking about a player who is 20 years old (soon to turn 21). The chances of him making an immediate splash on the NHL blueline are smaller than the risks of rushing the player along.
In the long term, if the Stars can get two above-average NHL defensemen and one serviceable third-pairing player out of Oleksiak, Larsen, Nemeth, Dillon, Johan Klingberg, Ludvig Byström or Esa Lindell, they'll be in great shape on the blueline for many years.
But the concern right now is the 2013 Dallas Stars, not what the team might look like in an other two or three seasons. In order to reach the playoffs in the shortened season this year, I think the Stars still need to add a frontline defenseman and a little more beef to the top end of the blueline.
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