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Meltzer's Musings: 8 Draft Possibilities, Today in Flyers History

June 16, 2012, 10:48 AM ET [96 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Many scouts have said that the 2012 NHL Draft is an average to below-average one in terms of players with star potential at the top level. It is a defense-heavy draft with an unusually low number of North American forwards rated as having top-six forward upside. There are also three goaltenders considered to have NHL starter potential.

I will hasten to add, however, that the conventional wisdom should be taken with a grain of salt. There are future stars in every draft, including ones taken beyond the top end of the first round. Scouting teenage players is an inexact science, and reading pre-Draft scouting reports years later often seems comical.

For instance, in the 1990 THN Draft Preview issue, the publication quoted a scout who said that Czech prospect Jaromir Jagr "Doesn't do anything flashy but impresses with his all-around game." In 2006, THN wrote, "A lack of size will always hurt [Claude] Giroux's NHL status" and "he must play a simpler game when the competition becomes greater."

There are scores of similar examples but you get the point. The pre-Draft reports are useful up to a certain point but they are far from gospel about how the NHL career of any player (assuming he has one at all) will take shape.

The Flyers currently own the 20th pick of the first round. They have a pretty good track record with their first round picks becoming long-term NHL players -- and they found future impact players with some of their later first-round selections such as Simon Gagne (22nd overall in 1998), Mike Richards (24th overall in 2003) and Giroux (22nd overall in 2006).

The organization has long had a "take the best available player regardless of position" philosophy when it comes to drafting in the first-round. This year, the Flyers may very well draft a defenseman simply because so many of the projected first-rounders are defenseman. By the positional distribution of the top-ranked prospects alone, the odds are fairly high that the available player at the top of the team's rankings will be a D-man.

Don't be surprised, however, if Flyers wind up with a forward. Someone they rate highly could unexpectedly still be on the board at No. 20. Alternatively, the Flyers may simply have a forward on their list rated more highly than one of the available defensemen.

For that matter, the Flyers may even potentially trade down a few spots and select a goaltender. I know there's a popular school of thought nowadays that goalies make for poor first-round picks because future top-end goalies are just as likely to be selected in later rounds as early ones. Nevertheless, the early indication on the three top-ranked goalies in this year's Draft are that they have higher NHL upside than most of the goaltenders ranked atop their position in the last five Drafts or so.

Here are eight possibilities: five defensemen, two forwards, one goaltender.

Slater Koekkoek (D): The OHL defenseman has both offensive upside and a bit of a physical edge to his game. He is also a plus skater with a larger-than-average frame that should fill out more within the next few years. If he is available at the 20th spot -- or beyond, because he's really tumbled in some of the Draft projections -- it will primarily be because he dealt with a significant shoulder injury (torn labrum) over the past year. He has two-way potential but needs to work on aspects of both sides of his game. If a team hits a home run with him, they'll have an All-Star defenseman. If they miss, they've got a future Steve Eminger. I don't think he'll wind up in the middle ground, either.

Derrick Pouliot (D): Personally, I don't think he'll still be on the board when the Flyers' turn comes up. He's a little bit undersized but he is an offensive-minded defenseman who is well-suited to playing a Peter Laviolette type of system. He's good at triggering the breakout and is a good passer even under pressure. Also has an accurate shot. He needs some work without the puck in his own of the ice. I've heard him compared to Dallas Stars defenseman Stephane Robidas.

Dalton Thrower (D): . If my team were picking a d-man in the first round, I want one who can skate fast, has some offensive upside and, hopefully, a little bit of a physical edge to his game. The right-handed shooting Thrower has all of the above. He's another somewhat undersized guy but he "plays big". The big question with him -- apart from his size -- is his hockey sense. He gets out of position in his own end and has been responsible for plenty of opposition 2-on-1 rushes when he makes an ill-advised pinch or steps up in the neutral zone to look for a hit. Off the ice, he's said to be a mature kid, as he has had to deal with some tough family situations (both of his parents are cancer survivors).

Olli Määttä (D): I don't think of the Flyers as a team that generally goes conservative with its first round picks, but Määttä is easily the safest pick among the d-men on this list. Good size, good mobility and hockey smarts. The sturdy Finn makes safe plays, covers well, moves the puck efficiently. Don't expect a ton of offense or power play time from him at the NHL level but he's got the physical tools, smarts and work ethic to be the type of set-and-forget defenseman who could enjoy a long NHL career. He's not a bruiser and doesn't take a lot of penalties but he's not afraid of contact.

Ludvig Byström (D): He's already playing at the Elitserien level for Modo and did not look out of place in Sweden's top pro league. His coach, former Flyers defenseman Ulf Samuelsson, is very high on his potential. Byström improved tremendously over the last year, as a year ago, he was not generating that much buzz even in Modo's famous "plantskola" and now he's a candidate to be a first-round or second-round pick in the NHL. He has good two-way ability, but average size. He showed offensive upside (seven goals, 29 points in 34 games) at the J20 SuperElit level but it will take time for that to emerge at the professional level. I think he'll be more of a puck-mover than a point-getter in the NHL. He also racked up 101 penalty minutes in the 34 SuperElit games but that's because anything resembling body contact gets called a penalty. Byström lost his cool a few times and racked up some misconducts. He won't be a big PIM guy in the NHL.

Tanner Pearson (LW): A true late-bloomer, the 25th-ranked Pearson went undrafted and unsigned in each of the last two NHL Drafts. He will turn 20 in August. But the Barrie Colts winger has emerged as arguably the best goal-scoring forward in the Draft beyond the top few picks. He played for Team Canada at the 2012 World Junior Hockey Championships (one goal, five assists in six games), becoming the the first player since ex-Flyer Danny Syvret in 2005 to play for Canada at the WJC after being passed over in the NHL Draft.

Tomas Hertl (C): The Czech Extraliga is a shell of what it used to be, and most of the top Czech junior players nowadays opt to leave early for the Canadian junior leagues. Hertl is one of the few highly-regarded Czechs who has, thus far, stayed home. He has not only played at the Extraliga level for Slavia Prague, but is already a star. He also played quite well for the Czechs at the WJC. Some scouts believe he's the third-best European league skater in this year's Draft, although he's fifth in the final Central Scouting rankings.

Oscar Dansk (G): Of the three top-ranked goalies in the 2012 Draft, I could see the Flyers taking either Malcolm Subban or Oscar Dansk if they do wind up going the goaltender route. The latter would be my personal preference. Dansk is a North American style goalie who just happens to be born and (primarily) trained in Sweden. He is one of the best puck-handling goalies to enter the Draft in quite a few years, and is a fierce competitor. I prefer him over Subban because Subban has had some problems shaking the injury bug. Unlike Andrei Vasilevsky (the #1 ranked European goaltender), there is no concern over Dansk's ability to adjust on or off the ice nor is there any worry about his NHL signability. Dansk, who spent three years in Minnesota with the famous Shattuck St. Mary's prep school program, has said he prefers the small-rink game to the bigger rink. Off the ice, he is a bright young man who already speaks flawless and unaccented English.

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Eight years ago today, the Flyers signed highly-sought rookie free agent R.J. Umberger to an entry-level contract. Originally a first-round pick (16th overall) of the Vancouver Canucks in the 2001 NHL Draft, the Ohio State product was unable to reach an agreement on a contract with Vancouver. He sat out the 2003-04 season and then signed with the Flyers.

This year, the Flyers are among the many, many NHL teams that are interested in signing defenseman Justin Schultz -- another much-touted collegiate free agent who has opted not to sign with the team that drafted him. In this case, however, I would be surprised if the player ends up in Philly.

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