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Meltzer's Musings: JVR and the Curse of Potential

May 17, 2012, 8:10 AM ET [335 Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
The Flyers entered the 2011-12 season counting on a breakout season from third-year pro James van Riemsdyk. With JVR coming off a big second half and torrid first nine games of the 2011 playoffs, the club hoped to see van Riemsdyk blossom into a 30-goal scorer.

As a show of faith and a means to preempt restricted free agency this summer, the Flyers rewarded van Riemsdyk with a six-year contract extension. Come next season, JVR's salary cap hit will jump from $1.65 million to $4.25 million.

Things started out OK for van Riemsdyk. He opened up the regular season on the top line with Claude Giroux and Jaromir Jagr (people forget that Scott Hartnell started out the season with reduced ice time, playing through an injury).

Although JVR was moved off the Giroux line shortly thereafter, his season got off to a decent start. He had points in four of the first five games and then had seven shots in a loss to Washington. Thereafter, van Riemsdyk fell into a mini-slump (pointless, minus-four in four games) before going off on his hottest mini-streak of the season (4 goals, 8 points over a four-game span).

Through the first quarter of the season, JVR was on pace for 28 goals and 64 points. While it was hardly an earth-shattering pace -- and there were stretches of games where the young forward was invisible on the ice -- it was a decided improvement from the start of his previous NHL season. In 2010-11, JVR was held without a single goal and had just 7 assists through the first 17 games of the regular season.

Considering that he ended up finishing last year with 21 goals and 40 points before his big playoff run, it did not seem out of the question for JVR to get better as the 2011-12 season progressed: it would not have been a big leap from that early 28-36-64 pace to get to about 32 goals and 68 points by the end of the season.

Unfortunately, it never happened. By late November, JVR's body started to break down on him. He missed large stretches of the season with an oblique muscle tear, a knee injury, a concussion and a broken foot that required surgery in March and kept him in a walking boot until the playoffs. There was also a rumored -- but never officially confirmed -- hip impingement injury that bothered hip off and on this season.

JVR dressed in only 43 games during the regular season (11 goals, 24 points) and the final seven games of the playoffs (1 goal, 1 assist). When he did play, there were occasional flashes of his top form -- most notably in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Semifinal -- but he was largely ineffective. After opening the New Jersey series with a big game, JVR struggled both offensively and defensively the rest of the way.

Head coach Peter Laviolette did not mince words in his assessment of van Riemsdyk's performance this season. He was willing to chalk the primary reason for JVR's ineffectiveness up to his repeated injuries but did not deny that much more will be expected of the player next season.

Said Laviolette, "With the injuries he had to deal with and coming back at the end of the season after missing close to three months time ... trying to jump on a train that is going 100 miles per hour is a difficult task for anyone to do. Sometimes you just want to look to the positives and the future. There is not much he can do about his year or the injuries that he had. What you can look to is the summer, training and getting into shape and coming back and having a positive impact on our team. That is what he is in control of."

The big question this summer is whether van Riemsdyk will be in a Flyers uniform next season. He has been the subject of trade rumors for months, including a widely rumored deal to Toronto for highly touted but thus-far disappointing young defensive defenseman Luke Schenn. As with JVR, Schenn has struggled to meet sky high expectations.

That trade seems less now but there will no doubt be other NHL teams who attempt to buy low on JVR, even with his hefty contract extension kicking in for next season and with the prospect of the player potentially facing off-season surgery this summer.

Despite the 23-year-old forward's bouts of inconsistency, there remains a widespread sentiment around the NHL that JVR has only just begun to tap into a well of almost boundless potential. However, the knocks against him have not changed. There are times when he plays soft and smaller than his size. When JVR tries to be strictly a finesse player, he rarely succeeds for very long. The defensive side of his game also still needs considerable improvement.

The best game of van Riemsdyk's NHL career to date was his Eric Lindros-like performance in Game 2 of the series against Boston in 2011. On that night, JVR showed that he can dominate even the likes of Zdeno Chara and Tim Thomas when he is locked in. Every single time he hit the ice, JVR was a threat to go around or through layers of defenders or else draw the defense to him and find an open teammate.

Unfortunately, that game is thus far a fleeting glimpse of what the Flyers envisioned when they took van Riemsdyk with the second overall pick of the 2007 Entry Draft. That was a superstar's performance, and JVR has yet to sustain that level of intensity.

van Riemsdyk has a laid-back sort of personality off the ice. It is not a question of apathy with him -- he is earnest and cares about improving -- but he appears at times to need to be pushed to step out of his comfort zone on the ice. When a player is drafted as high as JVR was, has shown flashes of brilliance and is now drawing a hefty salary, the expectations are higher.

To JVR's credit, he has long demonstrated off-season commitment to working on his strength and conditioning. He has been a summertime regular at the SkateZone since his rookie year. No doubt van Riemsdyk will work hard again this summer.

From a Flyers standpoint, I would not be adverse to seeing the team trade JVR if the move were to help the team toward bringing in a top-notch blueliner. It would not be an even-up trade, of course, but he is still a valuable asset.

On the flip side, it is quite often true that the best trades are sometimes the ones that a team does NOT make. I do not think Paul Holmgren is out to trade JVR for trading's own sake, even if there is a contingent of fans who would applaud any more that shipped the player out of town (and then would be the first to complain if JVR blossomed elsewhere).

If the Flyers do not re-sign Jaromir Jagr for one more year and do not add another top-six winger via free agency, the likelihood of a JVR trade decreases steeply.

Looking at the situation from the player's perspective, I think it is best for him to follow Laviolette's advice. Forget about the 2011-12 season. Don't read the newspapers or pay attention to internet trade rumors (including the ones that are sure to appear on this very site). Pull within, get in top shape for training camp and go from there. Work on adding some additional strength if possible, and focus on turning improved defense into offensive counterattacking ability.

I will say this: Whether it's in Philadelphia or elsewhere, I think the NHL will see a much more productive James van Riemsdyk next season as long as he's reasonably healthy. The player from the second half of 2010-11 and first quarter of 2011-12 is much closer to his actual level of ability.

I don't know if he'll be able to avoid a prolonged cold streak or two next year. I don't expect him to post numbers next season like the ones James Neal put up in Pittsburgh this season. But I do think it's fair to expect -- and demand -- considerable progress from van Riemsdyk.

Coming tomorrow: A look at Jakub Voracek.

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