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Meltzer's Musings: Three keys to ECQF victory |
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I hope everyone enjoyed their holiday weekend. The "real" season begins tomorrow night in Pittsburgh with most pundits installing the Penguins as the favorite to prevail in their series with the Flyers.
The sentiment is understandable. The Penguins have more superstar power than Philly does, equal or superior depth in the supporting cast and have received more consistently good goaltending from Marc-Andre Fleury (who is also healthier than his Philadelphia counterpart) than Philly got from Ilya Bryzgalov. While the two clubs were tied for 5th in the NHL with respective 19.7 percent efficiency ratings on the power play, the Penguins were the better penalty killing team by a wide margin (87.7 percent to 81.8 percent).
The Flyers won four of six games in the regular season series, and four of five in which the game had any significance in the final standings. Philly actually finished the regular season with one more regulation/overtime win than Pittsburgh but the Pens claimed home ice in the first round by virtue of five addition points via shootouts. Pittsburgh was without Sidney Crosby for much of the season, but the Flyers likewise had to deal -- and are still dealing with -- the loss of Chris Pronger for the regular season and playoffs.
Ultimately, however, the playoffs are a whole different animal than the regular season. I don't think the Flyers' performance in the regular season series against the Pens has too much bearing on the impending playoff matchup, except for the fact that Philly no doubt feels confident it can play from behind if need be (Pittsburgh should feel the same way).
The playoffs are all about matchups. If the Flyers can get some healthy bodies back in the lineup for the series and get high-caliber team defense and goaltending, I think they are as well-matched to beating the Penguins as any team in the NHL. Those are some pretty big ifs, though, and that's why Pittsburgh is rightfully the on-paper favorite entering the series.
With that said, when you look at this current Flyers roster from top to bottom and across the various positions on the ice, I think it's the best equipped team in years for making a deep run. I detest making playoff predictions, and won't make one here, either. What I will say is that the Flyers do not fear the Penguins (or vice versa) and they have a winner's mentality of being a team than never quits.
This Philadelphia team has coped with a lot of adversity all year and has shown tremendous character. That is not to say Pittsburgh hasn't had its fair share of trials and tribulations this year, but I think it's been more intense in Philly. The Penguins were also without Crosby for much of last season and the Flyers' dealt with all sorts of potential crises beyond just Pronger's loss.
Neither the Flyers nor the Penguins are bothered by playing from behind in games, as witnessed by the fact that they finished 1st and 2nd in the league in winning percentage when yielding the first goal of the game. Philly has the confidence of knowing that it successfully erased deficits in five of six games against Pittsburgh this year -- winning twice after trailing 2-0 -- but the Penguins also came damn close to pulling off a three-goal comeback (without Crosby) in Philly's 3-2 win in the first game of the season series.
If the Flyers are to win this series, I think the following three factors need to work in their favor:
1. Bryzgalov must outplay Fleury
Team defense and goaltending are symbiotic: one can lift or destroy the other, especially in a playoff series. Bryzgalov's performance in the final home game against Buffalo was an encouraging sign that he can successfully play through the chip fracture in his right foot sustained on March 26. His lateral movement and second-shot recovery ability in the Buffalo game looked much better than in the Rangers game two nights earlier.
Make no mistake about it: The Flyers need Bryzgalov to play to his pre-injury level from the month of March, when we won NHL Player of the Month honors. Coming off nearly a week-long break since his last start, factoring in his on-going rehab from the foot injury and weighing in the element of immense playoff pressure, it is hard (if not impossible) right now to get a feel on what to expect from Bryzgalov in this series.
However, if Bryzgalov plays to his March level -- along with the team in front of him -- the Flyers will win this series. If not, Pittsburgh could make short work of Philly.
These numbers are very telling of the season to date played by Bryzgalov and the team defense: He started 34 games that the Flyers win during the regular season. In these matches, he posted a sterling 1.81 goals against average, .936 save percentage and five shutouts. Bryz also made 25 appearance (23 starts) in games the team lost. In those tilts, he had a 3.44 GAA and .864 save percentage.
Fleury is a fine goaltender. If you throw out his mediocre December performance, he had arguably the most consistent regular season of his caeer. Even so, he's not infallible or quite as consistent as New York's Henrik Lundqvist. The Penguins' team defense is geared toward covering up his career-long rebound control issues.
Fleury can slam the door for weeks at a time but he's also imploded on occasion with soft goals, even as he's become a more mature goaltender. His win-loss splits are not as dramatic as Bryzgalov's but still significant. In my opinion, the hardest goal to score against Fleury is the first one. He's gotten closer and closer to the ideal of being even tougher to get a second goal against -- the mark of a truly great goalie -- but he's still in the next category down from the absolute elites in the NHL.
Of course, the guy does have a Stanley Cup ring, and is plenty athletic and talented. When he does have to steal a game, Fleury can do it. In this series, Bryzgalov is going to have to steal at least one for Philly.
2. Stay out of the box
Special teams worry me in this series. The Flyers' overall power play numbers ended up being equal to the Pens -- and Philly earned the most man advantages of any team in the NHL, along with all of the penalties of their own that they took -- but they seemed to go in extremes. Either they were red hot or ice cold with very little in between.
When things weren't going well, the Flyers' power play could kill their own momentum and they gave up a frightening number of shorthanded scoring chances. When things were going well, it all started with good puck movement and getting initial shots through from the point with Scott Hartnell or Wayne Simmonds in front.
The Penguins with Kris Letang and Crosby around around infinitely more dangerous, because opposing defenses can't just worry about Evgeni Malkin and James Neal. Philly needs to be very careful about both the quantity and timing of preventable penalties, especially with Bryzgalov's side-to-side movement still a bit of an X-factor.
3. Healthy bodies
The playoffs are a war of attrition, and the Flyers enter the postseason with more question marks in the health department than the Penguins. Right now it looks like Danny Briere (back spasms) and Nicklas Grossmann (knee) will be in the lineup for the first game. I am not confident of James van Riemsdyk (foot surgery on March 6) being ready to go even in a long series. Andrej Meszaros (back surgery) is out at least until the mid-to-latter stages of a second-round series.
The Flyers are going to need as much depth as possible to compete with Pittsburgh because the Pens are a very deep team -- both offensively and defensively -- in their own right. There will likely be additional players lost on both sides as the series progresses.
You never know what can happen in a series but I think the Flyers' best shot at victory in the series is a split in Pittsburgh, followed by a game three win in Philly. Even if the series were to go back to Pittsburgh tied 2-2, I think the Flyers could ultimately prevail. They are OK with seesawing momentum. However, if they go into another 3-1 hole as they did in both 1998 (actually a 3-0 that time) and 2009, I can't see winning three in a row over the Pens.
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I wrote a lengthy season-in-review article for the Flyers' official Web site. If the piece does not run on Flyers.NHL.com today, I will post the piece in its entirety as part of tomorrow's gameday blog. If it does run, I'll link to it.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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