So my last blog got a little interesting debate going on Twitter as to who could be gone from the Oilers roster next season, and why. Here's an expanded look at the subject:
Eric Belanger - I think when the Oilers signed him, the hope was he'd be a much less expensive Horcoff. Everyone rips on Horcs, but if he was $2mil per season, Oil fans would think he's one of the best 3rd line centers in the league. Steve Tambellini last summer thought to himself, "why not add another 30-40pts, defensively-sound center who can win face-offs?"
The problem with his signing was that having another Horcoff didn't address the Oilers need to add size to the roster. Nuge is not a big guy, and Sam Gagner isn't either. Horcoff is average-sized, and he doesn't scare anyone physically. Belanger...might be the smallest of the four. If he isn't contributing offensively, and he isn't a big, physical player, just what could/did he bring of value to the Oilers roster? He failed this season because he was redundant, not because he did anything wrong. He's here because Tambellini made a bad roster decision, filling it with too many similar players. Some need to go.
The Oilers will try to deal Eric Belanger over the summer. My guess is, Anton Lander will start the 2012/2013 season as the 4th line center. Belanger could be dealt at the draft for a 4th round pick.
Ben Eager - We all know why the Oilers signed Eager: Smashy-smashy. Poor Ben started the season injured, and I think he avoided smashy-smashy all year because of it. Maybe it's unfair to move him before giving him a chance at a healthy season, but I don't want him back. Oilers need a couple guys in the Bottom 6 who inflict physical pain on the opposition night-after-night. Eager seems only sorta with the program to me, and sorta doesn't work. The Oilers need more of a Cal Clutterbuck type...a Clutterbuck who was Eager-sized would be insane.
Teams will show an interest in Eager and the Oilers will have no problem dealing him if they choose to.
Linus Omark - Omark didn't fit before the season started, and still doesn't fit. He's not as gifted offensively as Ales Hemsky or Jordan Eberle, and he's not as big and fast as Taylor Hall and Magnus Paajarvi. There's no role for Omark in the Top 6 in Edmonton, and he's not what the Oilers need in their Bottom 6. Too many small forwards killed the Oilers.
Omark is a RFA, so expect the Oilers to qualify him and then deal him. It was obvious at the end of the year, and especially after a Twitter comment Omark made, that the Oilers were never going to play him again. My guess is, the Oil will deal him for a 3rd or 4th round pick at the draft.
Lennart Petrell - I don't like that the Oilers have yet to re-sign this guy. He has size and he hits. The Oilers lack this sort of player. I'm thinking the reason he wasn't re-signed is because of his age. The Oilers have two forwards in the form of Tyler Pitlick and Teemu Hartikainen who will require full-time roster spots sooner or later. In Hartikainen's case, sooner. If Petrell is not re-signed, he'll go UFA and he'll receive a range of offers. Solid 4th line guy. I think the Oil will come to their senses before July 1st and will offer Petrell a new, longer-term deal.
Darcy Hordichuk - We went through a similar thing before with Steve MacIntyre: In the modern NHL, a fighter needs to know how to play hockey. Hordichuk simply is not a good enough hockey player, and therefore, there's no spot for him in Edmonton next season. He's a UFA, so he'll find work somewhere else of his choosing this summer.
Theo Peckham - With Theo, it's a numbers game more than anything else. The Oilers D was really, really bad most of the season. This off-season, the Oilers could easily take a player at the draft who will immediately make the NHL on D (Ryan Murray). This will be followed by the Oilers going hard on July 1st after a Top 4 defenseman like Matt Carle. Plus, the Oilers could deal an asset or two to bring in another D man. Next season, you could see three different D men in the starting six. Crowded. Too crowded for Peckham. I suspect the Oilers will deal Peckham at the draft...can't see them just letting him walk with no return.
Cam Barker - Barker was a disaster. There isn't much more than that to say. The Oilers won't qualify him, because there's no trade market for him. He won't be back. Unless it's in a rerun.
Nikolai Khabibulin - My gut tells me he'll be back because it's easiest that way. He's got one more year on a big contract that the Oilers get to pay regardless if Khabby is in Edmonton, in the minors, or at a shooter bar. Plus, one more year gives time for one of Edmonton's best two goaltending prospects (Olivier Roy and Tyler Bunz) to step up. Dubey will play 60 games next season anyway, so the amount of damage Khabby's terrible goaltending can do will be limited.
The Oilers will work hard to dump this contract. I don't think they be able to, and if that's the case, they might just pay him to stay home. There are a few useful UFA goalies available, and the Oilers will have cap room.
Ryan Smyth - Okay, now we're getting to the tougher subjects. Poor Smyth: Statistically, he had a decent season, considering his age and the fact he was mostly a third-line player. But the concerning thing was how his battery died at the 40 game mark. Smyth is going to be asked to take a huge pay cut to stay in Edmonton...He won't be offered more than $2.5mil per, and I'm thinking $2mil per is closer to the number the Oilers have in mind. Smyth could get more on the open market, and he knows it.
My guess is, Smyth will be re-signed and will be back...but this situation could be dragged out all summer if there is a big difference of opinion on salary. Smyth could very easily sign a $3mil per, 1 year deal with Calgary or Winnipeg if he gets frustrated with the Oilers.
Shawn Horcoff - He has a rock-solid contract, and he's way overpaid, so no one will deal for him. But the new CBA is coming up, and rumor is there will be an "Amnesty" clause, that makes it possible for teams to buyout a contract. If that happens, it will be Horcoff, not Belanger, that's gone.
I think it would send a very ugly message to the players if Horcoff was bought-out. And like I said before, he's a solid 3rd line center. I'm not in a rush to see him go, but I know many people who would like him to be gone. He could be, for financial reasons only.
Ales Hemsky - Yes, I know he just re-upped with the team. Here's a "what if". What if the Oilers win the Draft Lotto on Tuesday? Obviously, they'd take Nail Yakupov, who plays the right wing. Jordan Eberle isn't going anywhere...so if Yaks is in, Hemsky is out. Hemmer, like Omark, is not designed to play in the Bottom 6.
There would be a market for Hemsky, although the Oilers wouldn't get the return people would like if they dealt him. If the Oilers win the Draft Lotto, look for Hemsky to be dealt for a late 1st round pick. This draft is defense-rich, and the Oilers could mix it up with a second 1st round pick. Take a forward with the 1st pick, and a defenseman with the next pick. Underrated prospect Derrick Pouliot is someone the Oilers could take.
Come to think of it, the Oilers, even if they pick 2nd or 3rd overall, could decide to shift Hemsky for a second 1st round pick. Keep in mind from the 2 or 3 spot, the Oilers will get a shot at centers Mikhail Grigorenko, Alex Galchenyuk and Filip Forsberg. Galchenyuk also can play the right side, and Forsberg can play any forward position. Sam Gagner could be moved to the right wing if Grigorenko is taken.
Sam Gagner - And speaking of Gagner...Look, Sammy is what he is. He's got skills. He's got tons of heart. But he's not big and physical, nor is he a great skater. He's completely okay as a 2nd line center, but he with Nuge don't exactly form a Crosby/Malkin 1-2 punch. Considering Nuge's size, the Oilers would be better off with a big center on Line 2. Galchenyuk, Grigorenko and Forsberg would all be bigger options at the dot. All three are better skaters than Gagner.
The Oilers could easily deal Gagner. I believe he could be moved for a mid-1st round pick or a defenseman. TO fans hate it when I say "Gagner to TO" but it's a logical place to trade him. The Leafs need a center, and they have numerous defensemen. Gagner for Schenn, Gagner for Franson, Gagner for Gunnersson...all possible deals.
This all being said, I think Hemsky is more vulnerable to trade than Gagner. But chances are both stay put and the Oilers draft Ryan Murray instead.
Taylor Hall - I will end this with a wacky, half-baked suggestion I heard making the rounds: That the Oilers should trade Hall.
I am mostly impressed with Taylor. He plays harder than anyone else I've ever seen. Yes, he's got a bit of a mouth; and yes, he's had injury issues...No player is perfect and Hall has some flaws. But raw emotion...who else on this team demonstrates and possesses the emotion Taylor Hall does? Trade him? That's crazy talk. Wanna know why the Oilers finished 29th? Because they need more Halls, not less Halls.
Who stays and who goes? My guess is, Belanger, Eager, Hordichuk, Omark, Barker, Peckham and Khabibulin won't be Oilers next season. Seven players.
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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