Let's forget for a minute about how lukewarm Ales Hemsky's season has been. Forget about his bad luck in recent seasons with injuries. Even forget that he's seeking a four or five season contract extension from the Oilers at $5mil per to stay put in Edmonton.
All I want you to consider is Ales Hemsky, the hockey player. The guy who likes playing in Edmonton and ideally, doesn't want to be dealt. The guy who, when healthy and feeling comfortable, put up very close to a point-per-game stats on a team that completely lacked any offensive superstars. For a long, long time, Hemsky was the best player on the Oilers roster.
The dynamics with the Oilers have changed, and Hemsky is no longer the top offensive weapon. This is Jordan Eberle and Taylor Hall's team now. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins had a terrific start to his NHL career before he was injured, and it appears his talent and potential is on the same level as Hall and Eberle's. These three are THE TEAM now, and Hemsky, should he decide to stay, will play the role of a 2nd line support player.
Would that really be so bad, having a player who is a point-per-game guy on the 2nd line?
One thing has mystified me with all the "Trade Hemsky" talk: No matter who the Oilers deal Hemsky to, the Oilers will lose the trade. Yep. We not going to get someone with Hemsky's talent level back. Not even close.
I've written about a thousand blogs in recent months about how the Oilers should deal Hemsky, but truth be told, I'm not excited for the moment it actually happens. In fact, I think when the dust settles, most of the people anxiously awaiting the deal will end up feeling disappointed and empty.
Why? Because unless the Oilers kick in some other serious assets to make a blockbuster deal, the player or players we get for Hemsky will not be an immediate solution to any of the issues on the Oilers roster. We aren't going to get a big, bruising winger for the Top 6. We aren't going to get a true starting goalie, or a Top 4 defenseman. We're going to get a pick and a prospect. That's it. Hemsky dealt alone is a pick and a prospect.
I mentioned yesterday the possibility of Jonathon Blum and a 1st from Nashville. Yes, I wrote the name "Ryan Ellis" down, and I absolutely believe he, and not Blum and a 1st, is what Oilers GM Steve Tambellini should be asking for. It's a Sellers market...we're eight days from the trade deadline now, and the playoff picture hasn't cleared up at all. It appears Tampa Bay and Buffalo are about to join the Blue Jackets and the Oilers as Sellers.
When I say "Sellers" keep in mind Tampa isn't going to deal Stamkos or any of their key younger assets. Buffalo could move Ryan Miller, maybe, but the asking price is going to be ridiculous. Perhaps the best player the Sabres actually move is Derek Roy, and I wouldn't rank him ahead of Hemsky in the talent department. Quite possibly, outside of Rick Nash and Jeff Carter, Hemsky will be the most talented player available. Which indicates, more than anything else, that the trade deadline might bore us to tears this time around.
I don't know about you folks, but deals involving crusty 5/6 pairing soon-to-been UFA defensemen for 2nd round picks don't exactly melt my butter. I could care less.
The big problem the Oilers have when it comes to dealing Hemsky is perception. In Edmonton, people who've watched the team for years understand just how good he can be when he's healthy and motivated. Oilers management can talk to Nashville management and say, with a straight face, that they want Ryan Ellis in return.
I've read comments to my last blog, and the name "Ellis" got laughs from Oil fans and non-Oil fans alike. But the truth is, the people who know Hemsky and this team know Ellis for Hemsky is pretty correct, as would be Hemsky for Luke Schenn, or Hemsky for Slava Voynov.
Perception outside of Edmonton is that Hemsky is a disinterested and moody player who shatters every time you breathe on him. Because of that, never mind Ellis or Voynov or Schenn...the concept of Blum + a 1st makes some people laugh. It might be a Sellers market, but Oilers management are fighting a big perception issue that will interfere tremendously with any decent deal that could be made.
I'm of the belief that the Oilers, if a decent deal was available, would have moved Hemsky already. The fact he is still here, and the fact there is almost no buzz from people in the know, tell me Oilers managements are going to make a serious effort to negotiate a new deal with him instead of making a deal. Dealing him is now the second and less desirable option.
Put it to you this way: If "market value", whether it is fair or not, says Hemsky is worth JUST a propsect, or JUST, as some have suggested...a 2nd round pick...wouldn't you rather the Oilers sign him for 4 years at $5mil per season? I would. Why? Because the Oilers don't need another 2nd round pick that badly.
Without meaning disrespect to Blum, is he really any better of a prospect than Oscar Klefbom, Colten Teubert, David Musil, Taylor Fedun, Martin Marincin or Martin Gernat? Or anyone else that the Oilers could sign as a UFA this summer, for that matter? Hey, I hear Denis Grebeshkov's contract in the KHL is over this summer. Would you rather the Oilers bring back Grebs or deal for Blum, who might be only good enough to be a 5/6 guy next season?
I'd rather Grebs, as hilarious as that sounds. At least we know Grebeshkov would improve the D and can play in a 3/4 pairing. We have no idea how Blum would help the team immediately.
So if you had to pick between practically giving Hemsky away, or to re-signing him for possibly too long, and for possibly too much money, which way do you go?
We know what everyone has been saying the Oilers should do. But is it too late for us to change our minds so we can do the right thing instead?
Edmonton Oilers Blogger • 
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