With NBC Sports recent coverage of NCAA hockey on Friday nights, I've been getting more and more questions about polls, rankings, conferences and especially about the NHL prospects and potential free agents. As we enter the final six weeks of the regular season, I will breakdown each conference in the weeks ahead, as well as tackle the race for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award given to the best collegiate hockey player each season, but today's mission is to explain the difference between the polls and the pairwise and what they actually mean.
Here are the rankings for this week with the Pairwise on the left and USA Today/USA Hockey Poll on the right:
As you can see, there are some major discrepancies…. Minnesota, Cornell, Ohio State, Michigan, Colorado College, UMass-Lowell, Colorado College, Ferris state, Union, Northern Michigan and RIT ( who isn't even in the Top 25 of the Pairwise) are all displaced at least three spots with Minnesota leading the way with a 12-spot differential. The Gophers are a potential #1 seed according to the polls yet are flirting with elimination in the Pairwise.
The good news that there's no need to concern yourself over it because the polls mean absolutely nothing. They are just numbers people like to throw around to let you know if a team is currently playing well or not. Beyond that, they serve no purpose.
In college hockey, it's all about the Pairwise. Much like NCAA basketball, there is a mathematical equation that compares Teams Under Consideration - teams with a Ratings Percentage Index, which measures a team's strength of schedule, of .500+ - against other TUCs according to their RPI, record against TUC's, record vs common opponents and, finally, head-to-head if applicable. It has the potential to change after every game and could look completely different come March 18th - Selection Sunday.
To summarize, the poll is based on opinion and the Pairwise is based on wins and strength of schedule.
When it comes to the NCAA Tournament, there are only 16 spots - four teams in each of four regionals, with the winners of each advancing to the Frozen Four - but it's not as simple as just drawing a line between #16 and #17. Each conference champion receives an automatic bid into the tournament and there are currently no Atlantic Hockey teams in the Top 25 of the PWR, which means the imaginary line moves up to #15 at the very least. There is also only one ECAC team - Cornell - in the Top 15. Should another ECAC team like Union or Quinnipiac or even a team like Colgate that isn't even in the PWR mix end up winning their conference tournament, the imaginary line moves up to #14. We also, can't forget the possibility of a team like Massachusetts or Wisconsin running the table and winning their respective conferences either. I'd throw a CCHA team in there, but with nine of their eleven teams in the Top 20 of the Pairwise, even if the two teams not currently in the mix end up winning that conference championship, they will work their way up the list on their own merit. In the end, the yellow line - for all you Biggest Loser fans out there - could end up being at #12.
So, you really want to be in the Top 10 of the PWR to feel relatively safe in regards to making the tournament. Spots 11 through 18 are bubblicious and with the teams heading into the heart of their conference schedules, every game means something, which makes this a very exciting time of year to follow college hockey.
Not only does the Pairwise determine who gets in the tournament, but it also determines who plays who and in what regional. We call this bracketology and while it seems rather cut and dry, there are some If This, Than That scenarios that can make things pretty complicated. That said, let's give it a whirl based on where teams stand at this very moment, just for fun.
If you just go by numbers this is how the regionals will look assuming there are no unexpected conference champions:
This brings us to our first If This, Than That scenario: There should be no more than two conference opponents in one regional and they shouldn't meet until the Regional Final.
Regional 1 has three Hockey East teams, Regional 2 has two from the WCHA and two from the CCHA but they'd play each other in the first round. Regional 3 looks good, but Regional 4 has three CCHA teams.
After some rearranging without completely destroying the competitive integrity of the brackets, here's what the Regionals could look like with the tweeks in bold:
Now, there are no more than two conference opponents in each bracket and none of them will face each other in the first round.
Since we now know who is playing who, it's time to figure out where they're playing and it really boils down to geography. It is the hope that teams 1-4 are placed closest to home so their fans can easily travel to support them and hopefully sell a lot of tickets in the process.
This year's regionals are as follows:
West - Xcel Energy Center in St Paul, hosted by Minnesota
East - Arena at Harbor Yards in Bridgeport, hosted by Yale
Midwest - Resch Center in Green Bay, hosted by Michigan Tech
Northeast - DCU Center in Worcester, hosted by Holy Cross
That means…..
Regional 1 with BU as the #1 seed should be the Northeast bracket in Worcester.
Regional 2 with UMD as the #1 seed should be the West bracket in St Paul.
Regional 3 with UML as the #1 seed should be the East Regional in Bridgeport.
Regional 4 with OSU as the #1 seed should be in the Midwest bracket in Green Bay.
With how this worked out, we were able to avoid the If This, Than That scenario that prefers to maintain the competitive integrity of the Frozen Four as well. Since East plays West and Northeast plays Midwest in the Frozen Four, if all four #1 seeds advance, #1 would play #4 and #2 would play #3 in the semifinals keeping the potential for #1 and #2 to meet only in the National Championship.
There is one more If This, Than That scenario to consider: If any team hosting a regional earns a spot in the tournament, they will be slotted into that regional no matter where their ranking might place them. Which means Minnesota, which is hosting the West Regional, but is currently slotted for Midwest Regional in Green Bay would need to be changed. Huge wrench, especially since Minnesota is currently a #4 seed which typically gets no priority. Now, you have to consider if it's more fair to just swap the entire bracket and send Minnesota-Duluth as a #1 to Green Bay or mix and match the brackets and have the Bulldogs and the Gophers in the same bracket which means they might have to face each other in the first round.
Let's consider the possibilities….
Green Bay is five hours from Duluth - a very easy car ride for any dedicated hockey fan and only three hours longer than a trip to St Paul - and since UMD fans travel well, it could help sell a lot of tickets in that Midwest Regional. It's also about eight hours from Big Rapids, MI (Home of Ferris State) and Oxford, OH (Home of Miami University). A couple bus loads of rabid hockey fans and some BC fans for good measure and it could be fun times at the 10, 000 seat capacity Resch Center.
If that floats your boat as an honorary member of the selection committee, that would put three Big Ten schools in the West Regional in St Paul - Ohio State, Michigan and Minnesota - plus Denver which is a big WCHA rival. If the Gophers get bounced in the first round, can you count on their fans, who will have undoubtedly bought majority of the tickets, showing up to cheer on two teams that they don't like very much in the Regional Final? As long as the tickets are sold, does it matter if half the seats (maybe more) are empty?
On the other hand…if you were able to rearrange things so that Minnesota fits into that West Regional with UMD, there's no way to keep the competitive integrity without having them meet in the first round which, as conference opponents, is an If This, Than That no-no. On the other hand, that means at least one of them will play in the Regional Final which means both a lot of tickets sold and a packed house in the 18,000 seat Xcel Center for the Regional Final.
While we're at it, the NCAA Selection Committee also likes to keep teams as close to home as possible if it can be helped to keep travel costs down, but more importantly to sell tickets. So with the Minnesota wrench and the geography concerns in mind, here's how the brackets could look with previous tweaks in italics and new tweaks in bold…
I just swapped the entire brackets. Having three teams with great fan bases who travel well in relatively close proximity to an arena who will have very few local fans showing up just because it'd be a fun time is too good to pass up especially when Minnesota fans will buy tickets simply on the expectation that their team will be there in the end and because they like quality hockey is just too good to pass up from a financial stand point.
On a personal level, I really don't like doing this because I would love to see brothers Chris and Jack Connolly who play for BU and UMD, respectively, and have both won National Championships with their teams meet in the Championship game as the ultimate tie breaker and given the format, should their teams make it to the Frozen Four, they'd meet in the national semifinal. Cool, but not nearly as cool as it could be if they played for the title. Also, it would mean that should all four #1 seeds advance the competitive integrity of the Frozen Four would be skewed.
From a geography standpoint, it would also be a huge bummer for Northern Michigan and Notre Dame who are both only three to four hours from Green Bay. You could rearrange the #3 seeds and swap Michigan and Notre Dame as #2 seeds to put them in that bracket, but then you end up with four teams from the CCHA in that Midwest Regional unless you completely destroy the competitive integrity of the tournament….
Interestingly enough, with pending conference realignment, all four of the teams in question will be in different conferences after next season. Ohio State in the Big Ten, Notre Dame in Hockey East, Northern Michigan in the WCHA and Miami in the NCHC. Along those lines, we also wouldn't have the UMD/Minnesota issue because they would also be in different conferences and we'd have an absolutely perfect bracket with no conference issues, solid geographic situations, host teams in their proper brackets and competitive integrity in tact...yet another positive side effect of conference realignment.
Fortunately, we don't have to pull our hair out over this, since we are sure to have a different order of the Top 15 by this time next week and get to have Fun with Bracketology all over again. Yey! (....where is the sarcasm font when I need it....)
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With the NHL shutting down on Wednesday night for the All Star Break, if you need a live hockey fix, there are three NCAA games available nationally via National and Regional Sports Networks on Friday:
Colgate vs Cornell - CBS Sports - 7pm ET
St. Cloud vs Minnesota - Big Ten - 7pm ET
Yale vs Harvard - NBC Sports - 7:30p ET
If the NHL Skills Competition doesn't do it for you on Saturday night, there are two NCAA games available for your viewing pleasure:
Maine vs BU - CBS Sports - 7p ET
Minnesota vs St Cloud - Fox Sports North - 8pm ET
There are four more games on Friday and six on Saturday that are available on local networks, so be sure to check your local listings and if you have any questions about specific players or programs, let me know and I will do my best to answer them for you.
**Edit: it has been brought to my attention by the always helpful, Brad Davis, SID for the Merrimack Warriors, that those of you with DirecTV can watch the simulcast of their game on Sunday against Providence at 4pm ET on Fox College Sports Atlantic (Channel 617 incase you're too lazy to look it up yourself). You can also watch Wisconsin and North Dakota play on Friday at 8:30pm ET and Saturday at 8pm ET on the same channel. **
Julie
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