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Hotstove, Ed. 40: Should Anaheim Firesale? |
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Welcome to the Hotstove! As always, I'm your host, Travis Yost.
On Wednesday, the roundtable - consisting of Bill Meltzer, John Jackel, Jan Levine, and Adam French - gathered to discuss a struggling Western Conference franchise that may very well look to deal some valuable assets come the trade deadline.
The Anaheim Ducks - a team that just one year ago surprised many with their push into the playoffs - are currently toiling at the bottom of the standings, with a 8-16-5 record through 29 GP.
Already, we've heard trade rumors about one hot commodity in the form of Bobby Ryan. But, assuming that the recent coaching change secures the big three in Ryan, Getzlaf, and Perry, the front office may have to look elsewhere when it comes to the approaching trade deadline.
The roster is loaded with veterans on expiring or near-expiring deals, including Teemu Selanne, Saku Koivu, Francois Beauchemin, Niklas Hagman, and Lubomir Visnovsky, all of whom could bring in a respectable asset or two.
If you're general manager Bob Murray, do you consider the firesale if your team is out of contention? If so, which players head out, and who are the likely suitors.
As always, weigh in below.
John Jaeckel: First of all, when asked earlier this year if I thought the problem in Anaheim was the coach (then Randy Carlyle) or the players, I said: the players.
They have a great first line, a couple of promising young defensemen and a goalie who can be great— if he ever gets his game back. But they really look like a team in disarray and in need of a semi-major overhaul.
Yes, they should be sellers, because they have some assets that can bring back value—without disrupting the nucleus of the club. Two players I would be shopping relentlessly are Francois Beauchemin and Teemu Selanne.
A lot of teams could use either or both.
Beauchemin makes a lot of sense in either Detroit or Chicago, two elite, playoff-bound teams with cap room and a need for veteran blueline help. Selanne could also land in Chicago. I've seen him play a few times this season and I think he still has a game. The Hawks have been trying out Viktor Stalberg, Andrew Brunette and even Dan Carcillo in the left wing slot on their top line with Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane. Selanne? Seems to me to be a pretty decent fit there.
The Hawks would have to clear a little cap room to acquire both players: Michal Frolik does the trick (likely with a package of prospects and picks).
But there are a lot of places either player could—and likely will— go.
Bill Meltzer: Yes, if Anaheim continues in its present direction, I think it wold be wise to trade some of their veterans and begin rebuilding toward next season and beyond.
Unless Teemu Selänne asks to be traded in order to take a shot at his second Stanley Cup, I do not foresee him being traded. He's still a point-per-game player at age 41, and means an awful lot to the Anaheim franchise (and vice versa).
I also think the Ducks will hang on to Lubomir Visnovsky, even though he has been limited to 16 games this year and is aging. The team has really felt his absence this season.
I do think the Ducks will be very receptive to offers to acquire Saku Koivu, Francois Beauchemin and/or Niklas Hagman as trade deadline rentals. None are playing up their past standards anymore but all could be useful to varying degrees to clubs trying to make a run at the Stanley Cup.
Anaheim won't get a blockbuster return for impending UFAs who appear unlikely to return next year (especially not on Hagman) but Koivu and/or Beauchemin could fetch decent draft pick/prospect assets.
Teams can -- and have -- made quick turnarounds. The Ducks still have plenty of talent at the top end of their roster and some good young defenseman still going through their growing pains in the NHL but the need to redo the supporting cast defense on a long-term basis. If nothing else, the roster needs to be shaped more to the liking of new coach Bruce Boudreau after Randy Carlyle's long tenure.
Travis Yost: Last season, I drove the Anaheim Ducks bandwagon from game one of the regular season with authority. In the off-season, I backed off the hardline stance, citing some serious concerns with their blue line and forward depth.
Perhaps even moreso, I was worried about the return of Jonas Hiller. Was he fully recovered? The answers - at the time - were unclear.
Fast forward to today, and no one could've envisioned such a dramatic drop-off in production. The offense has dried up, the defense is regularly beaten by some of the premier offenses in the Western Conference, and the goaltending has - to say the least - been inconsistent.
It's going to put Bob Murray in a tough spot, no question about it. But, with so many expiring contracts, many of which concern 'veteran' players who are usually commodities at the trade deadline, my guess is he has no choice but to sell at least a couple of players off come early 2012.
There's no question which player has the most value of all, and that's Teemu Selanne. The only issue with Selanne? Anaheim and Selanne have an impeccable relationship, and there's no guarantee Selanne would ever consent to a deal, even if it meant a chase at the Stanley Cup. Suitors would be numerous, and the return would be great, even for a 41-year old.
My guess is that the most popular name over the next couple of months will be Francois Beauchemin. Solid defender, can chip in offensively, and could be the added-depth teams are desperately seeking as they prepare for a deep playoff run.
Beauchemin was initially added in the deal that sent both Joffrey Lupul and Jake Gardiner to Toronto back in February, and his contract($3.65M cap hit) does expire at the end of the season.
Teams will note Beauchemin's productivity as an NHL'er, and even though his number isn't the most comfortable in terms of salary, the expiration date at 2012 will make him a low-risk, high-reward buy.
If I'm any of Chicago, Tampa Bay, Edmonton, or Dallas, I'm getting in line regarding Beauchemin's services. All four teams are 'in the hunt' and could use another talented body on the back-end.
Jan Levine: You would love to say that a team is never out of it, but at 8-16-5 and 2-7-1 in their last 10, it's seems a pretty valid assumption that Anaheim is not going to make the playoffs. This means that before the trading deadline the team should definitely be sellers of those players that really have no future with the squad.
In terms of the players mentioned, right off the bat, Hagman and Beauchemin would be the two names that Anaheim would love to move as neither is likely to be back next year. Even if they were, Anaheim could just re-sign them this offseason. Visnovsky is more of a question as scoring defensemen don't grow on trees, but Vis will be 36 this summer and last year's output can be viewed somewhat of an aberration
Koivu and Selanne bring other issues to the mix. Both are long-time members of the team. Both have likely given up dollars to be in Anaheim and both may be playing the final season of their career, meaning that PR concerns could be a factor on if you deal either or both. The Ducks would have to tread carefully in dealing either of them and Selanne would clearly bring more in a deal, though, losing him would have more of an impact on the fan base. That said, Anaheim needs to worry about the future and shouldn’t hold on to either of them because of perceived or real fan reaction.
If backing up the truck, then back up the whole truck and not just part of it.
Adam French: I feel really bad for Jonas Hiller who is struggling mightily behind a very porous defence and a forward group that isn’t very defensively responsible. Add to that his bout with vertigo and you have the makings of an awful season. Let alone the fact that their big guns are, relatively speaking, doing terribly. I feel this team is very far from serious Cup contention and really needs to add younger depth. In the off-season they will be faced with losing their entire second line. There are some very solid prospects coming through their system with Peter Holland, Kyle Palmieri, Emerson Etem and Pat Maroon (An angrier Penner?) so the foundation is there, but they need to get what they can for some of these vets.
Players I would trade :
It breaks my heart and I know they would never do it, but Teemu Selanne would make one of the best acquisitions at the deadline. He is a world class player even at his age, he brings the infamous “Cup ring,” would be a great veteran presence in any lineup and brings elite skill to the PP. Despite his age and the questions of re-signing you know he would be worth a 1st and a top-prospect/young defender.
Saku Koivu will also have to go. At 35 he is slowing down and in reality he will likely continue to regress. Already I would argue he is hardly a 2nd line center at this point. He is the kind of guy a playoff team would add for 3rd line veteran presence though. He won’t command a lot to be sure, but at least they get something for him and allow Holland to take over the second line role.
I can’t see them weakening what is already a very poor defensive core by trading Beauchemin or Visnovsky this season. I think they need to ride them out for one more season and see where they are at. The forward core is extremely strong going forward and I have faith that Hiller can find his All-Star form at some point , it’s the defence I’m worried about.
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