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Meltzer's Musings: 6/8/11 |
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Putting together a Stanley Cup caliber hockey team is much like assembling an especially complex jigsaw puzzle. Therefore, I will reserve any judgment of the Flyers' trade yesterday to acquire the rights to Ilya Bryzgalov until it we find out 1) whether the team is able to sign him and at what cost, and 2) what other roster moves are made both prior to and after July 1.
The Flyers paid a modest price -- non-prospect forward Matt Clackson, a third-round pick in 2012 and a conditional pick (which would not be a future first-round or second-round pick) -- in exchange for the opportunity to negotiate with the impending UFA goaltender prior to the start of free agency on July 1.
Even if the team reaches an agreement with Bryzgalov and agent Rich Winter, they must first wait for the announcement of next season's salary cap because of tagging space limitations. They may also wish to wait so that they are not forced into strict salary dump moves at the draft and can potentially get a little more value in return.
If the club is able to sign Bryzgalov, no one will have a right to complain that the goaltending issue was not addressed decisively this summer-- no matter what happens next season. In 2009-10, Bryzgalov was equally deserving of the Vezina Trophy that went to Ryan Miller, and a compelling argument could have been made that Bryzgalov (not Henrik Sedin) was the single most valuable player to his team in the NHL. The Russian goalie was not as consistent this past season, and had a so-so playoff series against Detroit, but he still had stretches (especially in the second half of the season) where he was nothing short of dominant in the net.
Apart from goaltending, however, there still appear to be some pieces of the puzzle missing for the Flyers. For one thing, the club could get mighty thin on the blueline in a hurry if Chris Pronger isn't healthy and/or if Kimmo Timonen gets worn down again. It does not make sense to trade a player such as Matt Carle in a salary dump because the club already has question marks about filling the sixth defense spot and worries about its aging top two defensemen.
The club also has needs on the wing -- which will get worse if Ville Leino is lost to free agency and/or if Kris Versteeg is dealt for salary cap space. There is a very real possibility that the club will have to rely on Andreas Nodl to blossom into more of a goal scorer next season. Also, the team is a bit undersized up front and not particularly tough to play against. The team's vaunted offensive depth is going to take a hit next year, and if Jeff Carter has to be moved, there would suddenly be a lot of offense to replace.
In terms of freeing up salary cap space, the pending increase of the cap for 2011-12 (believed to be in the neighborhood of $3 million) will be mostly eaten up by the increase in Claude Giroux's salary as his new contract kicks in and his cap hit goes up from $821,666 to $3,750,000.
In order to afford Bryzgalov's cap hit, the team gains $2 million by letting Nikolay Zherdev walk as a UFA and would gain another $3 million if Versteeg is dealt and no salary was taken on (i.e., Versteeg is dealt for picks -- which won't be a first-rounder). If the club does not retain RFA Dan Carcillo, that's another $1.075 million, but some of that will likely be split between Nodl and fellow RFA Darroll Powe.
If the club is able to re-sign Leino -- which still seems increasingly unlikely -- allowing veteran UFA defenseman Sean O'Donnell ($1.3 million) to depart and waiving Jody Shelley ($1.1 million) before the start of the season would give the club $2.4 million to add into Leino's 2010-11 salary of $800,000. That would allow the club to offer him up to $3.2 million. That should be enough to either resign Leino or get another skilled winger via free agency to play on Danny Briere's line.
The problem with resigning Leino or someone else to a long-term deal: Both Braydon Coburn and Matt Carle are UFAs after the season, and James van Riemdsyk will be a RFA after completing the final season of his entry level contract. While the Flyers tend to go season-to-season in planning their cap and the cap will probably go up again in 2012-13, tying themselves into too many multi-year contracts could once again eat up all of Philly's tagging space come next season.
The team hopes the NHL will grant LTIR status to Ian Laperriere ($1.17 million) this season. When the club got Mike Rathje onto LTIR despite his career ending injury, the defenseman at least went through the motions of attempting a comeback -- medical evaluations, discussions of physical therapy, etc. If Laperierre retires, the Flyers will not only have his salary count on the cap (which is the case regardless) it'll be dead space all season.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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