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Canes trade deadline plan (part 3 of 3): The target list + Leafs game notes

February 4, 2011, 11:20 AM ET [ Comments]
Matt Karash
Carolina Hurricanes Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
The Canes just could not catch a break in Toronto on Thursday night. And they didn't deserve one. That game is a great example of how small the difference in talent level in the NHL is. I still think the Canes are a better team than Toronto and have a better shot at the playoffs. But Toronto showed up with a huge edge in jump. They were just faster to the puck all night and therefore played with it on their sticks much more and ultimately got paid for it. Cam Ward gets credit for showing some spark but that is really about it.

The team needs to be better and find desperate much earlier. Saturday night is a big opportunity to turn a bad week (1 win, 2 losses) into a positive in the standings by handing Atlanta a 3rd loss.

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Part 3 of my Canes trade deadline plan names specific players that might fit for what the Canes need.

I will focus mostly on players from teams who are clear or likely sellers and maybe take another spin at this in 2-3 weeks if/when more teams reach this status.

My priority 1 was to find a 3rd center capable of some offense, ideally adding size, playoff chase and playoff experience and faceoff capabilities. Salary cost is mostly irrelevant for 2010-11 since the Canes only pay 20-30% of it, but I think it is important that this player be strictly a 2010-11 rental who becomes a free agent this summer. I think Rutherford will prefer to keep this slot open for Jeff Skinner in the future and spend his future money elsewhere.

Who fits:
1) Jason Arnott (NJ). 2 weeks ago New Jersey was a clear seller (and even selling already). Does there recent surge change this? Not yet, but maybe. But for the sake of discussion, let's call them sellers for now. Arnott is big. He is decent offensively; while he is currently on track for more like 40 points, he is historically a 50-point+ type of player. He has tons of playoff chase/playoff experience. And his contract is up this summer which makes him a rental. The price might be too high (per part 1, Rutherford will not be a high bidder in any huge bidding wars), but I would be surprised if Rutherford does not at least have this conversation.

2) Michal Handzus (LA). First, LA is clearly right in the playoff mix right now, so Handzus would become available only if either they tank over the next 3 weeks or they just want to go a different direction at 3rd line center (Handzus is okay but having a slow year offensively). He is big, good in the circle, probably a little short on offense but not completely a defensive plugger and has at least some playoff chase experience recently with LA and awhile back with Philadelphia. If nothing else, he offers a 2nd example of the type of player the Canes want.

3) Marty Reasoner (Fla). (Thanks to the poster who suggested him yesterday.) Reasoner rates lower than Arnott on most accounts - offensive ability, size, playoff chase/playoff game experience, etc. But he is a decent veteran pickup who is at least solid defensively and could provide more help on the power play. Again, Rutherford will not spend a bunch of top-tier picks or youth, so someone like Reasoner could be a fallback to add solid depth for cheap.

Mike Fisher would fit well in terms of resume, but again, my bet is that Rutherford will not even consider players with decent size contracts that extend past this season. I don't think he wants to tie up money and lock down this position for future years with Skinner possibly growing into this role as soon as next year.

My number 2 priority was to add either a top-end defenseman or possibly cheap, veteran defensive depth for cheap. The Canes have enough blue line options on the power play with Pitkanen, Corvo, McBain and White, so offensive ability is not required; sound defense is more important. And with Ian White added awhile back and Jamie McBain making big strides in his development, I think Rutherford will poke around here but does not feel that it is imperative that he do something here for the team to win this year.

The puzzle pieces are hard here. Do you prefer a right shot to fit with Pitkanen? If so then you suddenly have 4 of them (Corvo, McBain, White, new player), so then do you trade White? If you add a left shot, does he just become a #5 guy in which case maybe you really didn't need him that much? This illustrates the point that the Canes are arguably okay here minus a new player.

Who fits:
1) Chris Phillips. He is exactly the veteran safe and sound true top 4 that makes any team better. He looks like a bidding war guy that prices higher for a team desperately trying to win a cup now and spend futures to do it.

2) Tomas Kaberle. He actually brings more offense too, but is sound defensively. Again, my bet is that he costs too much future for the Canes.

I think the alternate path on defense is more interesting. At center, I noted that the Canes (in my opinion) would not want to tie up a spot/money for future years. Joni Pitkanen and Ian White come ff contractsthis summer. Jim Rutherford has historically had no luck shopping for top 4 defensemen in the summer bidding wars. The last 3 significant additions that the Canes have made for their top 4? Trade troubled prospect for Tim Gleason+. He followed this up by doing 2 very similar trade deadline deals. A couple years back he got "promising, fairly expensive but struggling mightily under the scrutiny of a Canadien market" Joe Corvo from Ottawa. It worked out wonderfully. Then he got Joni Pitkanen from Edmonton who could have been described exactly the same. Fast forward to 2011. That gets me to #3...

3) Mike Komisarek. You heard it here first. (I did successfully predict Cole's return - check my old blogs - when no one else called it so maybe I will get lucky again.) A couple years back he was a top prize in the free agent market when Toronto got him, was slotted to be a top 4 for Team USA in the Olympics (before he got hurt) and his game has fallen off a cliff since then with all kinds of trouble in Toronto this year. So at this point he comes with some risks obviously, but that is how potential top pairing (or at least top 4) defensemen who are only 28 become available for trade for maybe just futures. Again, the guy is only 28, hitting his prime, was an unquestionable top 4 only a couple years ago. Might Burke decide to cut his losses and move on. Remember that even after Kaberle likely leaves, he still has Schenn, Beauchemin ( if he stays) and Phaneuf to anchor a decent and expensive blue line.

Out of pocket costs for Komisarek (salary cap not as relevant since our budget is under anyway) is $4.1M for 3 years past this one. Assuming a rebound does happen, who are the Canes going to get as a true top 4 for that price in the summer bidding wars? And He is a right shot who could fit next to Pitkanen even if we can resign him. If the Canes did get Komisarek, I think there is a chance that Ian White gets moved to save a few $ and get at least part of the futures back - maybe he even goes to Toronto who then trades him to get more futures.

I say the Canes should pounce.

If the Canes do not add a long-term guy like Komisarek, they still could benefit from adding a veteran depth guy in the mold of Niclas Wallin (Wallin will not be available, but I use him as an example of the type of guy). There are usually a decent number of these types available for later round picks come late February.

Priority 3 was to add scoring depth on wing. For the 2010-11 playoff chase, I think this is a lesser need. Anyone can use another veteran scorer who can notch goals when things get tight in March. But the Canes have a decent enough mix of veterans, young hungry kids, grit, skill, etc. and have been scoring at a decent enough clip so far this year. But per part 2, wing is a position where there is potential for a lot of churn this summer. Samsonov, Dwyer, Jokinen, Larose, Cole are all unrestricted free agents. Especially Samsonov is likely to be let go. The Canes youth movement is heavily weighted toward smallish skill players like him, so I think his money gets spent on something else.

So might Rutherford spend this money early helping the 2010-11 stretch run and also filling a spot early for next year? I think it is possible if the right guy comes along at the right price.

Who fits?
1) Dustin Penner (Edm). He is sort of Rick Nash lite. He is a big left shot sniper who is more skill than physical despite his size. Edmonton is rumored to be completely cleaning house over there and going with a big youth movement. Penner could be the big wing with skill that the Canes have long sought to put next to Staal. He is 6-4 245 (though not so much a physical force), is in his prime at 28 years old, has notched 30 goals and been in the 20s multiple times and is signed through next year for $4.25M (so that is Samsonov's $2.8M plus $1.45M that needs to come from somewhere else).

So there is an early shot at identifying Canes needs and even a few potential fits. I really like the Komisarek idea. No way can his game have permanently fallen as much as it looks like right now. Jim Rutherford has had 2 huge successes buying down-and-out talented defensemen when no one else was buying and then reaping huge rewards. Corvo, Pitkanen, is Komisarek next?

I will take another shot at possible trade targets in a couple weeks when maybe a handful more teams become sellers and we see where the Canes are in the standings closer to deadline day.

HUGE game on Saturday to climb into the #8 spot!

Go Canes!
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