Ran across a very interesting blog from Richard Cloutier, the resident Edmonton Oiler blogger for hockeybuzz.com. Not that I find alot of blogs regarding Edmonton interesting, but in this one he attempts to implement a statistical analysis of sorts to predict where each NHL team will finish, with an obvious emphasis on Edmonton. However, my interest in the article was, again, getting an outsider's perspective on our club, but also where he had them ranked to finish (6th in the West and making the playoffs!). As for me, I'm not so sure about that. Right now, I feel like this team is not much better than the team from last year and would not be holding my breath regarding the Wild making the playoffs next season. Notwithstanding, I really haven't given it a deep look yet either. Typically, I like to wait until the pre-season to look at every team and compare and contrast how the Wild will stack up in the West. So, without further adieu, I give you Richard Cloutier's blog in it's entirety (good work my fellow HB blogger):

A couple of days ago I created a statistical analysis of the 30 NHL teams, for the purpose of indicating where the Oilers should finish at the end of the 2010/2011 season. The information contained in that blog suggested that the Oilers should finish in the 14th to 18th place range, which is good enough to make it into the playoffs (or very close to). Perhaps the potential of the playoffs happening for Edmonton in 2011 is a bit of an over-estimation, as the statistics I included were, for the most part, estimations in themselves. Injuries and poor team morale could make a huge difference in hampering the Oilers season as it did last year. Or maybe, the youthful enthusiasm and a new-found level of compete within the team will propel the Oilers to even greater heights than suggested in the first blog. Edmonton is clearly the most unpredictable team in the league heading into this season.

I mentioned I would use a second methodology today during the first blog, whereas I would estimate the Oilers chances in 2010/2011 based on comparing the Oilers overall roster to the other 29 in the league. In order to make this work, I’ve had to create a mathematical point-assignment system, whereas all 30 teams are ranked in respect to their forwards, defense, goaltending, and intangibles. Please consider when looking at my rankings that I realize there is still two months to go before the start of the season, and a number of team rosters may change considerably over the remaining two months.

Trying to explain the how’s and why’s of what I’ve done here would take forever, and it would be boring too. What I will say in an effort to explain my calculations is that I’ve ranked teams from best to first in three categories, have added the totals, and then subjected or added an amount based on an “intangibles” factor. The rankings as listed are based entirely on my opinions on team rosters, and in saying this, I recognize that no two hockey fans would make the same lists that I have.

Will this method change my previous estimation that the Oilers will finish in the 14th to 18th range? And will a team-by-team comparison model provide a more accurate prediction of team rankings than my blog on Friday? We’ll only know for sure come April 2011.

Starting with the forwards…

Forwards – Ranking score multiplied by 4
1. Washington
2. Chicago
3. Vancouver
4. San Jose
5. Pittsburgh
6. New Jersey
7. Boston
8. Tampa Bay
9. Detroit
10. Anaheim
11. Philadelphia
12. Los Angeles
13. Ottawa
14. Montreal
15. Buffalo
16. Colorado
17. Minnesota
18. Calgary
19. Phoenix
20. New York Rangers
21. Edmonton
22. Dallas
23. Columbus
24. New York Islanders
25. Carolina
26. St. Louis
27. Nashville
28. Toronto
29. Atlanta
30. Florida

Defensemen (x3)
1. Chicago
2. Detroit
3. Los Angeles
4. Toronto
5. San Jose
6. Buffalo
7. Vancouver
8. New Jersey
9. Washington
10. Philadelphia
11. Nashville
12. Minnesota
13. St. Louis
14. Boston
15. Ottawa
16. Florida
17. Montreal
18. Calgary
19. New York Rangers
20. New York Islanders
21. Edmonton
22. Tampa Bay
23. Anaheim
24. Phoenix
25. Pittsburgh
26. Colorado
27. Atlanta
28. Dallas
29. Columbus
30. Carolina

Goaltending (x3)
1. Buffalo
2. Boston
3. New York Rangers
4. Vancouver
5. Pittsburgh
6. Carolina
7. St. Louis
8. Minnesota
9. Columbus
10. Colorado
11. Nashville
12. Calgary
13. Toronto
14. Montreal
15. Anaheim
16. New Jersey
17. Phoenix
18. Florida
19. Los Angeles
20. New York Islanders
21. Edmonton
22. Dallas
23. Ottawa
24. Atlanta
25. Detroit
26. Tampa Bay
27. Washington
28. Chicago
29. Philadelphia
30. San Jose

Intangibles (up to 50 bonus points for positives, or up to -50 points for negatives on subjects including coaching, attitude of players, roster depth, injury history, team chemistry).

1. Anaheim: 0. No significant negatives or positives
2. Atlanta: - 20. No one, including the players, seems to care about hockey in Atlanta
3. Boston: 30. Positive team self image and internal belief in potential
4. Buffalo: -10. Buffalo should be a great team, but always seems to underachieve
5. Calgary: - 20. Bad team chemistry and impending sense of doom for team
6. Carolina: - 20. Lack of inspiration to win; core players aging.
7. Chicago: 0 points. Pluses for being Stanley Cup champions, great city to play in, players have winning attitude. Minus points for fact that every opposing team will be gunning for them now, and sell off of players due to cap issues will affect morale.
8. Colorado: 20 points. Young team full of enthusiasm.
9. Columbus: - 10. Team seems lost without confidence of future success.
10. Dallas: - 10. Entering full rebuild mode; there will be a post-Modano hangover.
11. Detroit: 20. Team always seems to do well. Motivated core of players.
12. Edmonton: 0. Add points for youthful enthusiasm, a new and motivated team core, and for better coaching this season. Subtract points for constant injury issues, the “Edmonton” factor (as in, players don’t want to play there), and the unresolved Souray and Khabibulin issues. The youngest team in the league, the Oilers could experience a huge winning upswing if things are going well, or suffer severe depression as a team if consecutive losses start to mount. Perhaps the hardest team to handicap at this time.
13. Florida: -20. Another team where no one seems to care, from fans to players.
14. Los Angeles: 30. A team that believes it is on the cusp of greatness.
15. Minnesota: -10. Team appears to be stalled, even though their roster is pretty good.
16. Montreal: -10. Montreal pressure cooker seems to demoralize players instead of inspire them.
17. Nashville: 20. Team always does better than it should. Barry Trotz is the best coach in hockey.
18. New Jersey Devils: 40. Team will be on fire if Kovalchuk situation is resolved.
19. New York Islanders: -20. Islanders seem to be cursed since the Bossy/Trottier years ended.
20. New York Rangers: -20. Horrifying team composition and unfolding chemistry issues.
21. Ottawa: 0. Ottawa is okay in all areas. Not good; not bad. Just okay.
22. Phoenix: 10. Positive energy in Phoenix after a nightmare few seasons on and off ice.
23. Pittsburgh: 20. Crosby and Malkin are best two centers in league and that rubs off on other players.
24. Philadelphia: 20. Another team with positive energy that will increase wins.
25. San Jose: 30. Amazingly talented team that always seems to disappoint come playoffs. But they are great in the regular season, and that’s what we’re here to predict.
26. St. Louis: 10. A team on the rise.
27. Tampa Bay: -30. One of the league’s best rosters that gets way less out of their players than they should.
28. Toronto: 10. Optimism in TO will raise the game of the entire team.
29. Vancouver: 40. The Canuck players and the entire city believes this is the year.
30. Washington: 20. Best forward group in hockey seems to energize a team that lacks defensive and goaltending talent.

After doing all the analysis and associated mathematics, the following is my prediction of the ranking of the 30 NHL teams for the 2010/2011 season. The numbers following each team were the total points as accumulated by analysis category. Please note that in the case of a tie, I allowed my opinion to decide which team should do better than the other.

1. Vancouver – 305
2. Boston – 264
3. New Jersey – 254
4. Los Angeles – 226
5. Pittsburgh – 220
6. San Jose – 219
7. Buffalo – 219
8. Washington – 215
9. Chicago – 215
10. Detroit – 213
11. Minnesota – 172
12. Philadelphia – 169
13. Colorado – 158
14. Toronto – 157
15. Anaheim – 156
16. St. Louis – 156
17. Nashville – 156
18. Montreal – 151
19. Ottawa – 144
20. New York Rangers – 144
21. Calgary – 128
22. Phoenix – 121
23. Tampa Bay – 104
24. Edmonton – 100
25. Columbus – 94
26. Carolina – 82
27. New York Islanders – 74
28. Florida – 68
29. Dallas – 62
30. Atlanta – 21

Conclusion

The second method I believe offers a more accurate prediction as to where the Oilers will finish this season. While I’d love for the Oilers to finish in #14 spot, and to be part of the playoffs, suggesting such a radical movement up the standings would be almost impossible for any team to accomplish. Somehow, the Oilers sound more feasible in the 24th spot.

The results of this second method provided me with some huge surprises, starting with predicting Vancouver to be the top team in the league. The Canucks have the depth and talent, but they never seem to put things all together. Hopefully this will be their year, and the Stanley Cup will come back to Canada where it rightfully belongs.

I was shocked to see how high up Minnesota and Toronto ranked, finishing 11th and 14th respectively. It would be great for both cities if their teams make the play-offs. My analysis indicated that Minnesota has depth at all positions on their roster, and that Toronto’s incredibly deep defensive corps and goaltending situation will do amazing things in moving the teams up the standings. Also just as surprising to me is how far down Dallas was rated. Atlanta was the clear favorite to finish at the bottom of the league; it wasn’t even close statistically…but the predicted bad seasons for teams like the Stars and Lightning were based on glaring holes in their line-ups (with Dallas, it was a lack of depth; with Tampa it was a team with good forwards and poor defense and goaltending).

So what say you, hockey fans? Where do you see your team finishing? Let the debate begin.

Well Wild fans, what do you think? Let's hear your thoughts regarding the Wild.

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