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Meltzer's Musings: 7-14-10

July 14, 2010, 8:32 AM ET [ Comments]
Bill Meltzer
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • RSSArchiveCONTACT
The one-year, $1.075 million deal the Flyers reached to avoid arbitration with Dan Carcillo is a good deal for both sides. Essentially, Carcillo gave in on salary, realizing that if he was going to have a job with the club this season, he had to accept a salary the club could fit within the salary cap once it makes other moves to get cap compliant.

Even if he had won his arbitration case, Carcillo could have found himself an unrestricted free agent if the Flyers walked away from accepting the ruling. Although he would almost certainly find other interested NHL teams, the offers he'd receive at this stage of the summer (at least from any playoff contending team) probably wouldn't have been much more than the Flyers offered in the first place.

If Carcillo has a decent season in 2010-11, he could earn a contract that is significantly higher than what he'll make this season. By signing now instead of taking his chances in arbitration, Carcillo increased his chances at a much bigger payday come next year while getting to remain with the Flyers during his salary drive season.

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In the salary cap era, there is greater importance than ever to having a pipeline of inexpensive talent that call be called up from the farm system. Last season, the Flyers got some unexpected early-season contributions from David Laliberte and a strong fill-in playoff performance by Andreas Nodl.

The previous year, Darroll Powe played well enough to secure a full-time roster spot. Meanwhile, former first round picks Claude Giroux and James Van Riemsdyk wasted little time stepping into the NHL lineup, although Giroux took an unexpected AHL detour in the first half of his rookie pro season.

Looking at the current forward prospect crop in the Flyers system, the pickings appear slim. The Adirondack Phantoms suffered from a lack of talent up front last season, and do not figure to be dramatically better this season. Last year's leading scorer, Jonathan Matsumoto (30 goals, 62 points), is gone via trade to Carolina. The former 3rd round pick needed a change of scenery, having never earned a single NHL call-up in three-plus pro seasons. The Phantoms will need new addition Greg Moore (a potential fill-in player on the big club) and others to step up. With little skill coming up through the draft, the organization has looked to bolster itself via rookie agents.

While there is not an abundance of high-skill forwards in the system, there are some potential sleepers and future NHL role players. Given the lack of first-round and especially second-round picks the Flyers have had (due to trades) in recent seasons, that is about the best that could be hoped for. Nevertheless the club is going to have to make a priority soon of stockpiling draft picks and using them wisely.

Scouting and drafting is an inexact science in the best of circumstances, because the players are so young and it's impossible to foresee how much their skills will develop two to five years down the line as they fill out their frames. However, if the team is going to miss on a pick that doesn't pan out, I'd much rather miss drafting for skill (and hoping the player adds muscle or improves his skating a bit down the line) rather than for size (and hoping the skill comes along late). I will never complain when the team uses a non-first-round pick on a skill player that doesn't pan out, such as Alexander Drozdetsky in the 3rd round of the 2000 draft or defenseman Michael Ratchuk in 2006.

I will gripe when the pick is spent on someone who, even on draft day, is projected to be a fourth-line talent even if he realizes their potential. In my opinion, no pick in the first three rounds should ever be used on a Garrett Klotz type of player. If there's no projected skilled forwards still on the board, there are still mobile defensemen available or perhaps a decent goaltending prospect who slipped a bit from his projected draft slot. Later in the draft, say from rounds 5 to 7, if you want to take a couple big bodies and look for toughness, fine.

We’ll see how things play out in upcoming seasons. In the meantime, the best forward prospects in the Flyers’ system are (in no particular order) Patrick Maroon, Mike Testwuide, Andrei Popov, Stefan Legein, Eric Wellwood, Chaput, Nodl, Laliberte, Ben Holmstrom and Zac Rinaldo.

Patrick Maroon (LW): As discussed in previous blogs, the Flyers organization was quietly disappointed in the 22-year-old Maroon’s 2009-10 season but his modest production (11 goals, 44 points in 67 games after 23 goals and 54 points in 80 games as an AHL rookie) was at least somewhat mitigated by injuries and the lack of talent around him on the Phantoms. Nevertheless, after two full seasons in the minor leagues it is time for Maroon to make his move.

Conditioning is no longer a question mark for the 6-foot-4, 225 pounder, who possesses soft hands to go along with his size. Skating and consistency remain his two big question marks. He has improved defensively since turning pro but will never be a Selke Trophy candidate.

Side note: Maroon recently played for gold medalist Team USA and the IIHF-sanctioned World Inline Hockey Championships, scoring 7 goals and adding 7 assists in 6 games (fifth among all players in the tourney). Detroit Red Wings prospect Dick Axelsson led all players with 14 goals and 16 points.

Mike Testwuide (LW): Paul Holmgren has identified the 23-year-old Testwuide as a player who has a chance to crack the Flyers’ opening night roster. A late-blooming power forward out of Colorado College signed earlier this year as a rookie free agent , Testwuide was courted by several NHL organizations before signing with the Flyers.

The Colorado native came into his own at the collegiate level this past season, scoring 21 goals and 31 points in 36 games, despite dealing with a wrist injury. What the Flyers like most about the 6-foot-3, 210-pounder is that he has learned how to use his muscle down low in the offensive zone and sets up shop near the net. He does not have the same pure finishing ability as Maroon, but is potentially the more versatile player of the two.

Andreas Nodl (RW): The 23-year-old has yet to develop even a semblance of the hoped-for scoring touch that made him a second round pick in 2006 but he performed quite well in a checking role when pressed into NHL service during the Stanley Cup playoffs this spring. He is in the mix to earn time on the Flyers’ fourth line at some point this season if injuries, slumps or trades provide him another opportunity.

David Laliberte (RW): The restricted free agent resigned with the club on a two-way contract that will pay him $550,000 at the NHL level and $100,000 in the AHL. The 24-year-old Laliberte suited up in 11 regular season games and one playoff tilt for the Flyers last season. He gave the club an unexpected boost by scoring goals in his first two NHL games. Eventually, he came back down to earth. A former 50-goal scorer as a QMJHL overager, Laliberte is a decent offensive contributor at the AHL level (he scored 28 goals his first full AHL season but just 18 in 66 games last season) but scoring goals is not going to be his NHL role.

Andrei Popov (RW): The 22-year-old has chosen to play another season in the KHL rather than signing an entry-level contract with the Flyers and spending a season in the AHL. The 6-foot, 190-pound forward came into his own offensively last season for Traktor Chelyabinsk, ranking third on the team with 15 goals and 26 points. As with many Russian players, it is an open question whether he’ll ever come to North America unless he has a virtually guaranteed NHL spot (unlikely) or an agreement that he will be loaned back to his Russian team rather than play in the AHL on the minor-league end of a two-way entry-level contract. .

Stefan Legein (RW): The former Columbus Blue Jackets second-round pick scored 24 goals and 34 points in 71 games for the Phantoms last season after coming over in a trade for Mike Ratchuk. Although the 21-year-old Legein lacks size (5-foot-10, 185 pounds) he plays an aggressive, agitating style.

Legein is not a pure goal scorer or playmaker who could be comfortably projected as a top-six NHL forward but could emerge as an effective third-line or fourth-line role player. He is still prone to taking some bad penalties and did not exactly light it up during the stretch run last season, posting just 3 goals, 8 points and a minus-16 rating over the final 19 games of the campaign. Legein will turn 22 in November.

Eric Wellwood (LW): The Windsor Spitfires winger is coming off a fine junior season that saw him tally 31 goals and 68 points in 61 games – numbers that portend pro potential as the 20-year-old attempts to earn a spot on the Flyers’ minor league affiliate. The younger brother of the Vancouver Canucks’ Kyle Wellwood, Eric has NHL-caliber speed and a quick shot release. While he does not currently project as NHL impact player, Wellwood is another guy who has a realistic shot at carving a niche as an effective role player.

Ben Holmstrom (RW): Holmstrom is never going to dazzle anyone at the pro level with his offensive skills but the 23-year-old is a lunch-pail player who is effective at digging pucks out of corners, skates reasonably well and doing the little things it takes to win hockey games. In 13 games with the Phantoms last season after finishing his collegiate career at UMass-Lowell, Holmstrom scored three goals. He is a potential call-up player who can fill a fourth line spot without hurting the club and can play center as well as wing. He is a former collegiate captain.

Zac Rinaldo (LW): Picture a swifter-skating, harder hitting version of P.J. Stock and you’ll have a pretty good idea of what to expect from the 20-year-old Rinaldo. One of the most controversial players in the OHL, Rinaldo has been suspended several times for questionable hits, including a 12-game suspension for hitting Marcus Foligno from behind.

Rinaldo is relatively unique as a prospect in that his role in junior hockey is the same as his pro role (if he’s to have one). Typically even most fourth-line NHL players and enforcer types performed more offensive-minded duties at the junior and/or minor league level but evolved into supporting roles at the sport’s top level.

For instance, Ian Laperriere was once a 44-goal, 140-point player in the Quebec League, Blair Betts tallied 35 goals and 75 points in a WHL season and Arron Asham scored a combined 57 regular season and playoff goals and 116 points in his best WHL season. Rinaldo’s best statistical season in the OHL came this past year when he posted a combined 10 goals, 25 points and 255 penalty minutes in 60 regular season games with London and Barrie.

Usually this is an indication that a young player lacks the skill level to stick as a pro, where the speed of the game and the talent level of even average players is staggering compared to the norms of junior hockey. In Rinaldo’s case, however, I believe that the player does have sufficient hockey ability to have a pro career, but he has been deployed in the same manner he would be as a pro. For one thing, he’s a tenacious forechecker. If he’s to make it to the NHL, however, he needs to tone eliminate the gratuitous hits from behind and tone down some of his after-the-whistle shenanigans.

Like Dan Carcillo, Rinaldo carved the type of reputation where he got no breaks from any OHL referees, resulting in marginal penalty calls on plays others would get away with. At 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds, he’s not going to intimidate anyone at the pro level but he can drive opponents crazy with his yapping.

*****

Like many NHL organizations, the Flyers have largely shied away from European drafting in recent years, especially forwards. Going back to 2004, the Flyers have drafted four European forwards, two of whom were playing in North America in their draft year. The last European forward the Flyers drafted was Mario Kempe, who was playing in the Quebec League at the time, in the 5th round of the 2007 Entry Draft. The last Euro forward drafted who was playing in Europe at the time of his selection was Andrei Popov in the seventh round of the 2006 draft. Nodl, an Austrian, was playing USHL hockey en route to St. Cloud State when he was taken in the second round of the '06 draft.

In this year's draft, the Flyers passed on a pair of potential high-value Euro picks who were still available when their first and second picks of the draft finally came up at the end of the third- and fourth rounds: Teemu Pulkkinen and Patrick Cehlin.

A year ago at this time, Finnish forward Teemu Pulkkinen was considered a likely first-round pick but injuries and inconsistency this past season (along with pre-existing question marks over his size and strength) pushed him down in the draft. The Detroit Red Wings, an organization with a history of identifying Euro gems, ended up taking him in the fourth round. Pulkkinen has consistently torn up Finnish junior hockey for Jokerit's feeder teams, scoring at a torrid pace at a level reminiscent of Teemu Selanne's junior days in the Jokerit system, but is still establishing himself at the SM-Liiga level.

As it was, the Flyers chose Lewiston MAINEiacs center Michael Chaput with the 89th overall selection. Chaput has good skills with reasonable NHL upside -- and the 18-year-old's pre-pro production should rise with additional junior experience -- so you can't really question the pick too much. Pulkkinen has higher upside by a country mile but also greater potential to never play a pro game in North America if his development stagnates.

With the next-to-last pick of the fourth round (119th overall), the Flyers chose 20-year-old Gatineau Olympiques forward Tye McGinn. Again, I totally understand the reasoning behind the pick. He brings size and a bit of skill and toughness. He may very well be AHL-ready this season, and it’s a selection that made sense. Even so, I can’t help but wonder if the organization passed on a better player in the interest of getting a bigger one into the system. I realize that the organization is already awash in small forwards, however.

Cehlin is a smallish 19-year-old winger whose potential some have likened to Nashville Predators forward Patric Hornqvist. Both players developed in the same program in Sweden (Djurgardens IF), plays an almost identical style on the ice and followed a similar early career progression. Figuring they struck paydirt once with Hornqvist (a seventh-round pick in 2005 who emerged as a 30-goal scorer for the Preds this past season), Nashville selected Cehlin in the 5th round (126th overall) of this year’s draft.
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