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The More Things Change, The More Things, well....Change |
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Flashback to some not to distant headlines-
"Belfour not going to Florida."
"Detroit not interested in Hasek"
"Modano Done in Dallas."
Get the picture?
Let me let you in on a secret. We were all used. If I have one expertise, that even my harshest critics would have to admit, it is that I know what I am. (and yes even who I am)
I run a website that had close to 5.4 Million Page Views in July from 208,000 unique visitors. I have had 146,225 unique visitors to date in July and 72% of them have never visited the site before. On an average day over 5,000 new people check out hockeybuzz.com. (If you want these stats verified and are an advertiser, request a media kit:))
Why I am telling you this? To brag?...yeh sure a little...:) but more to say that my sources know this as well, and as much as they might like me as a guy that can't be beat in air hockey, I know they love me for my traffic more. I know it and I can admit it.
More importantly, if someone is giving me information I always have to ask myself "why," and "what's their agenda?" Everyone has an agenda. They do. If I was an agent or a team I would do the same thing.
So I have developed a few simple rules when is comes to translating what I hear to what I write.
1. FIND THE MOTIVATION AND WEIGH THE GAIN BY THE SOURCE.
Of course an agent would tell me something as a way to generate interest or to let other teams know they better "bleep" or get off the pot. of course a team would tell me something to either make it look like they are being agressive or active to their fans, or to perhaps scare another player that they are negotiating with. ex: "A team is talking to a center when they have another RFA center unsigned."
2. TRUST YOUR INNER CIRCLE.
I have a group of around 50 people that, although they also have their own agendas, have proven out over time to be straight with me. When you see an e5 or an e4 it is almost always coming from at least one of the "Fight Club."
3. IF AN AGENT THROWS TORONTO, DETROIT, or VANCOUVER'S name out there along with real teams he is talking to be VERY CAUTIOUS. This is a classic attempt to get a bidding war going. There are some teams that are "hot button" teams.
4. ALMOST NEVER TRUST A TORONTO RUMOR COMING FROM TORONTO
enough said about that one.
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So with that in mind, let's fast forward to TSN today where an article has been put out saying that:"We've never had an offer from Montreal," his agent Yves Archambault said Wednesday. "I've spoken to several teams. At this point we're really looking at 3-4 teams." the Article goes on to mention that Detroit is a team interested in JP.
Now when reports came out of Florida that Belfour wasn't going to happen (also on TSN) I kept on pounding that it was still possible. Same with Hasek, and last year Modano. And there have been others. Understand something here. I am not questioning Archambault in the least. Yves is as honorable as they come. And when he says, "We've never had an offer from Montreal," I believe him.
They have talked however with Montreal. That was reported somewhere the Day that Malkin vanished in Finland, so it sort of flew under the radar.
It doesn't take an offer to for me to report a team is interested. Offers are often not made until the day a deal goes down. (see Peter Forsberg, Manny Legace, etc.) It was less than a 2 weeks between Bobby Clarke saying, "We are done following the signings of Rathje and Hatcher" and the Peter Forsberg Press Conference."
On more than one occasion I have reported a team was interested, an agent has called me up saying they have never spoken, and then a week later the deal is done. Is the agent lying? Not always.
I also have a rule that I don't use agents or specific names in my articles. I do that for several reasons as well. One if I never put out names, my sources know that I can be trusted to not reveal their identity, and as many of you have figured out that fact that my identity isn't known also protects them even more.
The other reason I do this is so that they know they can't use me (as much) for their personal agendas.
All this being said, I am not coming out and saying that Dumont to Motreal is an e5. I am not even giving it a 4. But I do know that until Dumont signs, I wouldn't be so quick to eliminate Montreal.
And one other curious thing....
Why put out information that specifies a team has not made an offer? I don't see an article stating the Blue Jackets have not mad an offer to Dumont. Is this to get the fans off the Canadiens back? No way. They would never put out such a story themselves because (if anything) such a statement would bring on more questions from Habs fans like "Why are you not looking into a player that wants to play here and could improve our team?"
So then why?
You could speculate that this is the equivalent of walking away from the car you really want and seeing if the dealer will follow.
The Habs won't come out and say they are looking at Dumont until they can get some cap space free. Otherwise, Habs players would begin speculating on who will be the ones to go should they get Dumont. And that creates a bad atmosphere.
I will not try and pretend that I know any of the answers to these questions. I don't have any "super specific info" regarding this particular case. I do have sources I trust still telling me that they have heard Montreal is a team in the mix. Could they be wrong? Sure. Will we ever know the whole story? Probably not. Teams don't put out releases about what happened when they don't get players
All I am saying, and in a very long-winded way this morning, is that this is big business, and you need to remember that. ALWAYS look for motivation, and when specifics are leaked by people involved in the deal attaching their names to those specifics...ask yourself why they would do so?
Because simply put no one is putting a gun to anyone's head here and asking for all the information they have. They are volunteering information that directly affects their future earnings. Remember that.
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