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Leafs Will Make Playoffs in 2006-07

July 19, 2006, 6:54 PM ET [ Comments]
Howard Berger
Toronto Maple Leafs Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
CALGARY (July 19) -- It was at this stage of the off-season last summer in which I offered a gut-feeling about the Toronto Maple Leafs that led to innumerable e-mails, most of them full of contempt. That feeling had the Leafs scrambling for their playoff lives in the 2005-06 season and ultimately missing out on the Stanley Cup dance. As it turned out, I couldn't have been more accurate, though it was partly a fluke resulting from that bogus hot streak the club put together in the final month of the schedule. If the Leafs had performed 'til the end the way they did when the pressure was on, they'd have missed the playoffs by more than 10 points.

As I sit here at Calgary International Airport awaiting a flight down to Los Angeles (and more than four weeks with the in-laws... yikes!), I have a slightly different summertime impression of the Maple Leafs. Though they will not win the Northeast Division title in 2006-07, or earn home-ice advantage to start the playoffs, the Leafs will return to the post-season after a one-year absence. Under new coach Paul Maurice, the club will finish somewhere between sixth and eighth in the Eastern Conference, owing its improvement to general manager John Ferguson's good work at bolstering a porous defensive team. This will come, undoubtedly, at the cost of scoring the number of goals the Maple Leafs did last season. So, one area will offset the other, to a degree. In the end, however, the Leafs will be competitive enough to jump back into the Cup tournament.

At whose expense? It's too early to predict, though I'm inclined to believe the New Jersey Devils will finally slither down the standings after more than a decade of excellence. I'm also not entirely sold on the Montreal Canadiens, though it's imprudent to underestimate the hockey smarts of full-time GM Bob Gainey. Could the New York Rangers be vulnerable again, after a sensational regular season? Or did the Blueshirts collapse in the playoffs solely because of injuries to Henrik Lundqvist and Jaromir Jagr? The Flyers were embarrassed by Buffalo in the first round, and Tampa Bay looked like anything but a defending champion against Ottawa. Like I said, however, it's way too early to make final judgements, but expect the Leafs to fight their way back into playoff contention.

One of the prime elements that enabled Pat Quinn's Leaf teams to overachieve in a number of playoff rounds was their abrasiveness. In lieu of abundant talent, the Quinn Leafs were not a pleasant opponent to face during the bulk of his tenure behind the bench. For details, ask any hockey fan in Ottawa. The Senators dropped four consecutive post-season clashes to Toronto because they were unable to combine sandpaper and skill. But, the 2005-06 Leafs would have been decimated by Ottawa had they hooked up for a fifth time. That's because the Blue and White developed a soft underbelly that compromised whatever redeeming quality the club possessed.

Such will not be the case in the coming season. It's my opinion that the Leafs will revert to the style of team that is able to compete in the Cup tournament. Newly-signed Mike Peca will set the pace, and that's why his acquisition was paramount. After witnessing Peca lollygag through the '05-06 regular season, fans of the Edmonton Oilers might be inclined to scoff at this suggestion, but I've watched the native of Toronto play in the NHL long enough to sense that he simply needs a jolt of enticement to reclaim his spot among the league's premier pests. For whatever reason, he didn't have that feeling in his lone year with the Oilers... until the stakes were high. Once the playoffs began, Peca looked infinitely more familiar, and he'll be excited to perform in his home town.

Elsewhere, the Maple Leafs have enough pure quality to stay in the Conference playoff chase. Mats Sundin, Darcy Tucker, Bryan McCabe, Tomas Kaberle and Pavel Kubina form a talented nucleus -- much of it, significantly, on defence, where the Leafs have been lacking for the better part of 30 years. My gut tells me that Jeff O'Neill will rebound with a much stronger performance under Maurice, now that his damaged shoulder has been repaired. And I see a range of 25 goals from the improved Alexei Ponikarovsky.

The wild card among teams in the Northeast Division will be goaltending. All five clubs begin the 2005-06 campaign with puck-stoppers that did not start last season. Martin Gerber moves over from Carolina to assume the No. 1 role in Ottawa. Sophomore Ryan Miller is firmly entrenched in Buffalo's net, to the chagrin of last year's projected starter Martin Biron. Cristobel Huet provides the Canadiens with a tantalizing prospect. In Boston, Tim Thomas usurped rookie Hannu Toivonen, who grabbed the No. 1 spot last October on the heels of the Bruins' contract stalemate with Calder Trophy-winner Andrew Raycroft. Toivonen maintained the edge when Raycroft returned and yanked a groin muscle, but ultimately lost his spot to Thomas.

This coming season, Raycroft takes over from Ed Belfour as the top netminder in Toronto, and it's anyone's guess as to whether he'll return to his rookie-of-the-year form of 2003-04. If he does -- and I don't believe it's a stretch -- the Leafs will be significantly improved. If Raycroft struggles once again, you can discount just about everything that's been written prior to this sentence.

Much is likely to change between now and the beginning of next April. So, any prediction at this stage of the summer must be considered in its proper context. Like always, injuries will have a dramatic impact on the way teams jockey through the regular season. But, I have a good feeling about the Leafs of 2006-07. Much the same way I had a shaky feeling about the club at this time last summer.

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