The past couple summers, the general pricing for a decent free agent defenseman went about like this:
1) Start with his previous year salary.
2) Give him a decent raise based on his solid play and unrestricted free agent status.
3) Add in another $1M because good defensemen are so important and so hard to find.
4) Then tack on another crazy $2M for the bidding war.

Brian Campbell is a good hockey player, but he managed to play his way into a 2nd pairing role (which is about what he has been historically) after signing with the Hawks for $7.1M/year. I like Mike Commodore, but does anyone now want his contract for $3.75M/year (again for a guy who is really a 2nd pairing guy)? And so on and so on.

This summer features a pretty decent crop of free agent defenseman including franchise cornerstone type Jay Bouwmeester.

So for fun, let me throw out salary numbers for some of the top guys and you tell me if they go for more or less than this number.

--Bouwmeester: More or less than $8M/year? We have seen the top offensive players like Crosby, Heatley, Malkin, etc. go for $9-10M, but unless my memory is missing someone, the ceiling for defensemen so far has been more in the $7-8M range. More than Campbell seems to make sense. But the salary cap is less this summer and expected to decrease again next year. Does someone pay $9M for him. Or does the weaker market pull him down to a somewhat more reasonable $7M?

--Komisarek: More or less than $5.5M/year? He is coming off a mediocre year, but you have to love the size and physical play in a guy who can skate well enough. The league is gradually coming back to a game that favors this kind of defenseman. Look at Zdeno Chara's rising in 08-09 after a couple years in the background. Does someone bet that Komisarek rebounds a bit and spend a big $6M+ to anchor a top pairing with a big defenseman hitting his prime? Or are people scared off by a modest 08-09 campaign?

--Scuderi: More or less than $3.5M? If you grade the guy on his 2009 playoffs, he looks like an anchor on defense and in a guy who can skate well. But coming into 08-09 was he any more than a borderline top 4 defenseman? No. So is someone going to pay full dollar for the April-June (that is 3 months) Rob Scuderi in which case $3.5M could be a steal? Or will GMs not get suckered into paying full price for a guy who might have just played the best season of hockey that his career will see? Though you could make an argument that $2-2.5M is fair after only 1 great season, he would be a bargain at that price and should see a higher number in the open market. How much higher does the bidding war push him? He looks like the classic trap where someone overpays maybe even north of my number, but what do you think?

--Beauchemin: More or less than $3M? Going into 08-09, most would label him as a clear top 4 with top pairing potential. And he plays with grit and fire, skates pretty well and is just entering his prime? Sounds like a guy worth $4M right? But a closer look reveals some big question marks. How does he rebound from major knee surgery? Does he become a shell of his former self? And is he really even that good or just the product of a good environment? Playing next to guys like Pronger and Niedermayer all the time can do wonders for making anyone look good. What happens when (for the 1st time in recent years) he is asked to be the best half of a top-end defense pairing rather than just skating next to this guy? The reward is high if he pans out, but anyone who thinks that there are not risks is naive. How big do you pay given the question marks?

--Ohlund: More or less than $4.5M? Of the bunch I listed, he might be the lowest risk option. He has held down a top defense job for a number of years now and while maybe not having the greatest upside at 30+ compared to other guys, he is probably the guy that is safest in terms of knowing what you are going to get. But there is that age thing. He will be 33 when the 09-10 season opens, so if he wants 3-4 years your contract starts working into the back half of his 30s. Does his play start to slide down the age hill before the ink on his big contract is even dry? Or is he just a steady, predictable rock that you can drop into your defense and know exactly what you are going to get every night from a proven veteran? Because of his age, his 1st 2 years seem a lot more valuable than the last 2 if Ohlund and his agent go for 4 years for what could be his last big NHL contract. Maybe $5M is okay for 2 years, but something more like $3M for age 35 and 36 brings the average contract to only $4M? Or do GMs look at guys like Lidstrom, Blake, etc. and just bid away without regard for age?

Yes. I realize that I skipped Niedermayer. His situation is unique. Who knows if he is even going to play for sure. And if he does is there a "team of choice" discount given to Anaheim or maybe New Jersey such that he never really enters the open market?

And if you want, have at Blake, Boynton, Mara, etc. too.

Go Canes!

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