I wrote the paragraph below a short time before last year’s Trade Deadline. As we all get worked into a trade frenzy it is wise to realize what has happened in the past.
I like the Trade Dead Line anticipation. In reality little has been accomplished immediately by acquiring high priced Front Line players at The Dead Line. The addition of Front Line players at this time never seems to have enough impact to push a team towards winning the Cup. One would have to go all the way back to 2001 to find an instance whereby a top line player was acquired at the Deadline and his new team went on to win Lord Stanley’s Cup. Rob Blake went from L.A. to Colorado at the Deadline in 2001 and then helped his new Club to win their last game.
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There is one other player that could be considered close to a top line forward at the time that did help his new Club win the Stanley Cup. In 2005 the Carolina Hurricanes made a Deadline deal to acquire Doug Weight. I went back a long time and there was not another star quality player who was acquired at the Deadline that won the Cup in the same season. Even Weight was not a top line player for his new Club.
There were many players who helped their new mates in time to win a Stanley Cup but they weren’t immediate remedies. There have also been those who were not considered top unit players that did have had an immediate positive effect and were rewarded quickly with a Stanley Cup ring. Those players were not star player Deadline acquisitions.
Fans should also be cautious of completely trusting stats for basing an opinion of how certain rumored players could help their favorite team.
Sometimes there is a big fish small pond effect which holds true concerning good players on bad teams.
Players can have their offensive statistics inflated because they are getting top 6 forward minutes and are receiving a lot of power play time. Although when the bad team, good player moves on they do sometimes flourish because of the added skill they are surrounded with.
Often those same players never progress as they were slotted too high to begin with and they do not have the ability to be an effective top six forward even on a better team.
There are quite a few past Blackhawks who benefited because of getting a lot of minutes on a poor team here that never really had any overwhelming offensive success elsewhere. Some recent players that were somewhat successful here stat wise that come to mind are Bell, Calder and Vrbata. Not one from that group is a top 6 NHL forward.
When looking at possible defensive help from teams at the bottom of the Standings, stats can be very misleading also.
Almost always a player on a bad team will have an inflated minus number and probably takes more penalties than he would in a better situation. If a defender gets point time on the power player his goal and assist totals could likely be inflated. On a better team that same player might not ever see the ice during power plays.
It takes a trained eye and frequent viewing to determine what a player’s current ability really is as well as to have a projection for the future. Even when player evaluations are done by professionals they are not 100% reliable.
A GM has to have great plan for the future, good instinct, top scouting and some luck to be successful.
Dale Tallon is in a tough and interesting position.
His Blackhawks have surpassed the expectations of most and are now rolling toward a Playoff birth.
Are the Blackhawks a Cup contender for this season?
Their current record would indicate they are but… there are teams that they have beaten convincingly in the regular season which could pose a problem in the Playoffs. There are also teams which have given the Hawks trouble during this season that if they were to qualify would likely not be an easy matchup in the post season.
Even the most die hard fans would likely admit it would be a big surprise if the Blackhawks won the Cup this year.
As unlikely as winning the Stanley Cup this season could be Blackhawk Management will base their plans for the Trade Deadline on anticipated success not failure.
Complicated enough…well it gets worse.
Tallon said a few years ago he wanted to build a team with young exciting players who could grow and bond together. He felt that was the best path for success and would change the culture here. If the team could progress players wouldn’t want to leave and Free Agents would want to come to play in Chicago.
Mission accomplished for the most part.
What is still somewhat unknown is whether players will want to come here as UFA’s. I think for the most part they will even if they could get slightly more money elsewhere. That is a huge turnaround here from the past decade when the bad team premium had to be paid to attract free agents. The days of having to dole out an extra 10-20% to attract UFA’s to Chicago is in the past.
Tallon is hoping there is a strong enough bond now concerning one of his prized possessions, Marty Havlat. Tallon is wishing the love here will sway Havlat to sign an extension to remain a Hawk beyond this season. The overriding factor may likely be if Havlat can provide the Hawks some sort of hometown discount.
Unfortunately for Hawk Management Havlat has not signed an extension yet, but supposedly both sides are still negotiating. If Tallon can get Havlat locked up for the next few years he would have a much clearer idea as to how to proceed before March 4th.
Tallon will either have to fill the gaping hole from Havlat’s departure or he can pencil him in as a core player for the future.
The Hawks will have 12.75 million in available Cap space when the Havlat and Khabibulin contracts come off the books at the end of this year. Some of that money has to be put away, earmarked for new contracts for Keith, Toews and Kane.
As of now the Havlat situation does complicate matters for the Hawk Management.
To further confuse possible Trade Deadline dealings is the great team chemistry found with this current group. According to those who are always around the players they are a very tight bunch. Due to that Tallon may feel more reluctant to trade away Rostered players at this point.
Unless a highly desired player becomes available, one which will become part of the Hawks core, only then will Tallon trade away parts from his current group.
The Hawks GM has also said he is not looking for any band aids. I think that is an accurate assessment for the most part but there are UFA’s which are rumored to be available that would help now. Even if a UFA was acquired for the remainder of this season only, they could make a big difference.
That brings us to the last unknown.
How are some of the Rockford Icehogs perceived around the NHL?
There is a huge difference between a very good AHL performer and a solid NHL player. I don’t believe a lot of the hype surrounding prospects unless I can watch them often enough to establish my own opinion.
Right now Niklas Hjalmarsson appears to be a player that could have a good NHL future. He could become a top four defender; he seems to have that kind of upside.
The Hawks also have two goalies that could have bright futures in the NHL. Just how good Corey Crawford or Antti Niemi will become is somewhat of an unknown. I think it is safe to say both have a good chance of making an NHL roster in the near future.
After those three that leaves Jack Skille and Petri Kontiola. Kontiola is an enigma because he appears to have some skill but has not played in Chicago the entire year.
Is he a future top 6 NHL forward?
I don’t know when the future starts for him. What many around the NHL are probably thinking is if Kontiola were that good he would be in Chicago not Rockford. That is valid point, so I am not sure what kind of trade value he has.
Skille, by all reports is progressing nicely. He had the some defensive vulnerability in the past but currently that appears not to be such a big issue. Tallon always speaks highly of him, so there could be some reluctance to deal the big winger.
I don’t see the Hawks stocked with an over abundance of upcoming Draft Picks nor do I see them dealing Kyle Beach at this point.
You have to give to get…..So what does Mr. Tallon do in the next six days?
It probably all depends on what the asking price will be for good players who will become UFA’s this summer. Tallon may have no choice but to worry about the next few months and to let next season play out later on.
To acquire Montador, Moore, Pahlsson and some others may require dealing prospects and picks only. It is not safe to assume the Hawks have the necessary bait to acquire those players.
To get others who could fit here and have been rumored to be available like….. Antoine Vermette, Derek Morris, Tim Connolly, Jeff Halpern, Nick Boynton, Nathan Horton, Danny Briere, or Jason Spezza.... would require of a package of players including those from the current Roster and a capital commitment for next season and beyond.
How active the Hawks will be before the Deadline could likely be a factor of the Havlat situation as well as the perceived value around the NHL of some Rockford IceHogs. Not to leave out the current health issue with Nikolai Khabibulin which could make any chance of dealing him unlikely.
Dale Tallon is in a tough spot but it could be worse.
At least the Hawks GM is not looking at a Roster full of spare parts and sparse fan attendance. The Hawks are financially healthy and have a very talented team. Tallon could just sit back and not do anything.
I don’t think that will be the case.
Tallon probably doesn’t make a huge deal unless something was to drop into his lap that couldn’t be passed. There will be teams in a weak financial position whereby they will need to trade away some salary.
There are teams in Eastern Conference as well as in the West and possibly even in the Central Division that would benefit from shedding salary. It is getting more difficult to trade those who are signed to hefty contracts. Money always matters it is just a question of how much.
The key for many General Managers is to find a trade partner more desperate than they are.....We will see soon if any turn up.
Al’s Shots
A player rumored to be available from a Club that may be forced to move big salaries is Ollie Jokinen.
I will be the first to admit I was fooled by Jokinen. I thought he would flourish in new surroundings. Most thought that when he was traded the Coyotes got the better of the trade.
The only thing the Coyotes got is a 5 million dollar player who may fall short of a 60 point season and is signed through next year.
I heard there was a story going around that Dominic Moore was saying he wanted top 6 forward money for next season.
I had to chuckle at that one…the last GM a player should try to muscle is Brian Burke.
Beyond that Moore could qualify as good player on a bad team, his future potential is up in the air…Maybe he really doesn’t want to stay in Toronto.
I think Moore would be a valuable addition but not because I envision him as a top 6 forward here. Maybe that could happen but…
If the price were right Moore could be valuable to the Hawks as a good faceoff man and as a bottom 4 forward.
The same could be said of Halpern or Pahlsson; they could help here without being top 6 forwards.
It should be a fun one tonight as the Hawks square off against the Penguins.
Huet starts in net and needs to improve upon his last start.
Antti Niemi went down to Rockford for a nice tune-up this week and is back in Chicago as Khabibulin isn’t going to return anytime soon.
According to Coach Q., Niemi may make his debut Sunday afternoon against the tough LA Kings.
Jack Skille has just been recalled from Rockford. I am anxious to see how much he has progressed.
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