We won't beat around the bush here, if anyone thought this was a playoff contender or powerhouse, I'd heartily recommend a head examination this holiday season. We all knew the odds and, in a lot of cases, the abilities were stacked against them. Even then, who could have predicted the cavalcade of ailments and injuries that beset first year coach, Scott Gordon's team?
Yes they are last in their division. They perhaps have not set the world on fire. But there are many things not only to be thankful of, but to respect and actually have some hope on.
The Isles are 10-12. Their 22 points has them tied with Toronto for 10th in the Eastern conference. This with a backup goaltender, a new system and so many injuries (Gervais and Martinek are banged up again, btw) that it has anesthetized many to be just another game to game reality.
Last year the Isles ended up 13th in the division. The Isles are on=pace to better that standing. Now, there is two ways this can go.
1. Overspeed and the system causes more injuries, not to mention that awful ice the Isles play on, and this season continues the injury-parade and the Isles continue or drop a bit.
2. Injuries heal and the patch is gotten through and the Isles hold or actually improve
This is how I see it playing out. And with it, I hold to certain things being promising no matter where the Isles fall standings-wise.
Overachieving?
Bill Guerin on pace for 30 goals and 60pts?
Doug Weight on pace for almost 60 assists and maybe near 80pts?
Meeting Expectations!
Trent Hunter on pace for over 30 goals. We all knew he could do this, even if he skates like he's in mud.
Mark Streit on pace for at least 55pts, probably surpassing many expectations with solid defensive play and ironman numbers. Streit is, without a doubt, the Isles #1 dman.
Surprises
Joey MacDonald is 10-9 and with a .907 Save pct. He is on pace for at least 30 wins. Sure there have been a few stinkers. And he lets a fat rebound fly every now and again, but there is no doubt that this team even being near in the 10th spot is due to his sometimes stellar play.
Andy Hilbert is on pace for 20 goals. As I predicted he would when this season started. He has shined in Gordon's system and been a 2-way threat on the ice. Really nice to see.
Josh Bailey has 5 assists in 10 games and shown why they had always slated him as a center this season in the big club. They saw something bright and exciting way back early this summer and held onto it like a beacon. The kid is just beginning to shine his own light at the start of his career. Sure, we have the same nagging issue that I had with Okposo...the lack of development with an AHL foundation. But, if he and Kyle are already improving on the NHL level with Gordon, then that is EXACTLY why Gordon was hired. To not only compete, but develop players on the NHL ice as well.
Which brings us to...
Scott Gordon, who also is a surprise. Let's be honest, most expectations were low, and let's be honest, they might not get much better. But I have said since he was hired he will need to be judged on how his system and the kids develop than their actual standings. Instead, we see all three things happening. Nielsen, Okposo, Bailey, MacDonald all are working out.
The Isles felt if even two players could show some potential to be top 2 liners, the rebuild year would be a success. Okposo and Bailey have shown glimmers and Neislen has been shown to be no slouch either. Bergie has also been finding his way, showing a bit less mistakes. These kids have shown they are at the very least, NHL-level talents.
Underachievers
Ok, I'll be the one to say it plainly. For all his lauds, which I feel he has earned,
Radek Martinek has played 10 games and with a -6. This is not impressive or even mediocre. So is his shoulder injured now? We will see. But make no mistake, the brittle moniker that is attached to Radek is simply not going to go away.
Jon Sim seems to have many expecting more from his preseason jaunts this year and last. Problem is, the highest he has produced is a mere 29 points. He's on pace to well-below that. This is not what the Isles were expecting.
Mike Comrie might be reviled in the fan circles this year, but his output is very normal to his usual years of disappearing after better year. Last year he has 49 pts. He'll be lucky to get 40 this season and has fled from the top 2 lines. The clock is ticking, Mr. Comrie.
Jury is Still Out
Bruno Gervais started strong and then disappeared. He's faded in minutes and in presence lately. Bruno needs to show consistency.
Jury is Done
Jeff Tambellini isn't the droid you are looking for. Has shown next to nothing on the NHL level. His minutes dwindle as kids far younger and less experienced bring far more depth and play than he can. Some have been far too hopeful based on pedigree. Don't be. He's not fitting Gordon's system and I do not see NHL-level in him.
The Forecast
The forecast is still a bit cloudy. Can vets get healthy. Will
Rick DiPietro come back and play subpar causing a goalie controversy? Fans are turning on DP lately, and that could come to a head if he's not coming back at perfect optimal health.
Meanwhile the system and the kids seem to have the commitment, just not the consistency.
Some feel at the trade deadline will be a great exodus, especially if the Isles drop off. This might prove a mightily realistic path. But, if they remain poised for a jump up the ladder with those returning play at potential, then they might...just might, make it interesting.
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- BD
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