BOSTON (Oct. 22) – The Maple Leafs have played the first two weeks of the NHL season at a pace that would have them finish with a bizarre 15-30-37 record for 67 points. Don’t look now, folks, but that’s exactly the number of points I predicted for the Blue & White in my pre-season forecast – the immensely popular column from the first week of October that told all of you the Leafs would place dead-last in the 30-team league. But, let’s get real here.
The Leafs will definitely win more than 15 games this season [maybe 10 more], and though they seem infinitely capable of losing 37 shootout decisions, they’ll probably cut that number by about 20. But, 67 points… remember where you first saw the figure, and try not to read into it too much. It honestly has nothing to do with the club’s last championship year. What we’re seeing from the Leafs early on is what many of us expected: A team that is willing to skate and compete most nights, but one that simply isn’t good enough.
No scenario, in fact, should be more appealing to fans of the hockey club that possess some balance and foresight. These people understand the Leafs would do very nicely by playing with energy and purpose, but only well enough to lose – preferably in regulation time. When it all shakes down, however, you’ll be seeing that famous number again… 67.
My thanks to all of you that chose to participate in the Q & A session earlier today. Allow me, now, to tackle some of the issues you presented.
RON IN SUDBURY writes: Hi Howard. In a season that is sure to feature a lot of losses for the Leafs, do you think it would be wise to unload Tomas Kaberle at the trade deadline? Considering there are different circumstances from last season, I think Kaberle might welcome a deal a few months from now. What do you think would be a fair return for Kaberle and do you see it as a realistic situation?
Ron, you paint both a logical and probable scenario here. One of the first questions I asked Kaberle at the Leafs’ pre-training camp sessions is whether hindsight would have prompted him to accept the deal to Philadelphia in February… the one he nixed by exercising his no-movement clause that would have brought the Leafs Jeff Carter and a first-round draft pick. To his credit, Tomas did not respond with a politically correct fib. He could have said, “No, I would have made the same decision even if I knew Mats Sundin, Darcy Tucker and Bryan McCabe wouldn’t be here when I arrived back in town.” Instead, Kaberle kind of danced around the issue, saying something like, “It doesn’t matter what would have happened, or could have happened. I’m still here and I’ll stay with the Leafs as long as they want me to.” And, therein, Ron, lays the response you are probably seeking. Yes, I firmly believe Kaberle would have accepted that move to the Flyers if he understood how adamant Cliff Fletcher was about stripping down the Leafs’ nucleus over the summer. And, I feel he’ll quickly jump at a similar opportunity prior to the deadline this season. But, I’m not sure peddling Kaberle is as much of a slam-dunk. In February, Fletcher had been on the job for about five weeks, and he knew what he was up against with all the restrictive contracts. I think he threw everything he possibly could against the wall, hoping a few things might stick. They didn’t. Eight months later, Cliff has made a rather dramatic change to the roster, and his plan is well underway. That could easily prompt him to view Kaberle differently this March. Tomas is a low-maintenance player with a very tradable contract that guarantees him a modest $4.25 million in each of the next two years. But, it’s also an easy contract to retain for the Maple Leafs. So, I think Fletcher will be very discerning when it comes to offers for Kaberle – and there will be plenty of them if No. 15 is deemed to be available on Mar. 3rd. As for what represents fair value… well that will obviously depend on the circumstance and the team involved. If a contending club suffers a key injury to a puck-moving defenseman, then a top prospect and a first-round pick will be the asking price. We’ll have to wait and see what the landscape is in late-February.
STEVE IN GENEVA, ILLINOIS writes: Pretty simple question, Howard: How do you feel the mood and attitude in the dressing room is different from last year to this year? With some of the longer-tenured Leafs and the big personalities gone, is there a palpable sense of change?
Absolutely, Steve… you nailed it. It’s almost like being in a strange place so far this season. Sundin, McCabe and Tucker were the essence of the hockey club during the past decade and, yes, they were domineering personalities in their own way. It’s a completely different environment without them, and I don’t say that critically. Right now, the Leafs are not a better team in their absence and all three have some hockey left in them. Fletcher was obsessed, however, with changing the dynamic in the dressing room, and he’s succeeded. But, there isn’t an automatic go-to guy in the room anymore as it pertains to the media. That process has started anew, and it’ll be interesting to see which players emerge as key spokesmen while this difficult season evolves. Mike Van Ryn is certainly becoming a favorite among reporters seeking good insight, as is Dominic Moore. Curtis Joseph is an easy and compelling interview, for obvious reasons. I really admire the way Nik Antropov has mastered the English language, given that he couldn’t speak a word when he arrived in Toronto a decade ago. That limitation currently applies to Nikolai Kulemin and Mikhail Grabovski, though Grabovski can spit out enough words to help the writers get by. He isn’t good enough yet to be utilized by the electronic media. Kaberle is always available and accommodating but it’s beyond me how his English seems to get worse every year! Niklas Hagman is a wonderful person to chat with, also with terrific insight. So, there are some very appealing types in the Leafs’ room this season, but the environment is substantially altered from what it was a year ago. And, not at all by accident.
MIKE FROM TORONTO writes: Howard, as it appears Luke Schenn will be sticking with the team – perhaps for all 82 games – what is the likelihood of Toronto releasing him to play in the World Junior Hockey Championships? And, how would that decision effect his long-term development in your opinion?
It’s almost impossible to answer that question right now, Mike. As far as the Leafs are concerned, the World Junior tournament in is veritably years away. There is so much to gauge with Schenn between now and December that I don’t believe Fletcher and Co. have given the thought any real consideration. But, there is one thing I can tell you with enough certainty: If Luke remains among the top four defensemen on the Maple Leafs into the third month of the season, he won’t be going anywhere. The club is hanging on to him because Ron Wilson feels comfortable playing him almost 22 minutes per night, and utilizing him in all key situations. That makes Schenn a full-time NHLer in the minds of the coach and the GM, which precludes him from being released for any peripheral event. Now, if Schenn’s performance goes into decline – which isn’t a far-fetched notion for an 18-year-old rookie – perhaps the Leafs will see value in having his confidence boosted in a more compatible environment such as the World Junior tournament. But, we aren’t anywhere close to that at the moment.
SHANE IN TORONTO writes: How long is this rebuilding process going to take, and can you even put a time frame on the development of the hockey club?
Oh, Shane, you know better than to use the term “rebuilding” in a question to me, though it’s a wildly familiar one among Leaf fans. As I’ve said many times, rebuilding is way too flattering a term to be affiliated with the Maple Leafs, for it implies that something recently was built. The blueprint Fletcher has chosen resembles that of an expansion team far more than it does an 82-year-old franchise. And it more accurately reflects the sorry state of the Maple Leafs in the decades since they were last champions. As far as the time frame for this latest restructuring, there isn’t a person on earth that could accurately foretell whether it will bare any fruit, or how long it will take. But, it’s almost impossible for a veteran Leaf watcher not to be cynical by suggesting that another attempt at respectability will probably hit a wall at some point before it comes to fruition.
JOHN IN BELLEVILLE, ONTARIO writes: Howard, do you think Nik Antropov is worth what the Leafs think he is? Wouldn’t the club be better off to shop him, Matt Stajan, and a couple of the extra defensemen (Ian White in particular) for some high draft picks this year or next? I know Antropov scored a couple of goals against Anaheim on Tuesday but when you watch him, he rarely goes into the corner unless a couple of teammates are already there. As far as his play in front of the net – I am only 5-foot-8 and 58 years old, but I think I could move him out of there. I don’t know why Ron Wilson hasn’t sent him to the press box yet. Sorry for the rant but I see most of the other Leafs giving an excellent effort and he just floats.
John, the first part of your rant was heading in a sensible direction, but the latter half leads me to think you’ve been watching videotapes of Leaf games from three and four years ago, rather than the live matches early this season. Among the myriad issues facing this hockey team, why would you possibly single out Antropov? The goals he scored against Anaheim were the result of perfect positioning near the front of the net, and he’s on an early pace to surpass his career-best total of 26 markers from last season. The big question about Antropov and Alexei Ponikarovsky is whether they could sustain themselves in the absence of Sundin, whom they lined up alongside the past two seasons. The jury is still very much out on Ponikarovsky, but Antropov appears to finally be the real deal. Does that mean the Leafs will hang onto him beyond the March trade deadline? Not in the least. Fletcher won’t say so, but he knows that Antropov and Kaberle are the two players that could potentially land him first-round draft picks in the right situation. Stajan and White aren’t in that category. There may be a market for Stajan, but it would result in a very modest return – perhaps a third or fourth-rounder. White hasn’t seen a minute of playing time since the regular season began but the Leafs are convinced they would lose him if they placed him on waivers. That wouldn’t be the end of the world, but the reason Fletcher kept White on the roster after training camp is that he believes the smallish defenseman can fetch a return. Ian makes only $850,000, which won’t scare off any potential suitors, or create much more of a cap cushion if the Leafs are able to unload him. But, White does have puck-handling and shooting skills that could be handy in a support role on a better team. Either way, I feel a decision about Ian’s future will be made shortly.
GARY IN TORONTO writes: Howard, I may be delusional, as you think many Leaf fans are, but don’t you see some positive signs from the current edition of the Maple Leafs? Look at the way they dominated Anaheim in the final two periods and, at times, the Rangers, Detroit and St. Louis. Last year’s team could not perform like that even for a period. Do you think they are on the right track? I do.
Gary, there isn’t anything at all delusional about your observation. The question I have is: Are they on the right track for what? If you think it’s a push for a playoff spot this season, you’ll be terribly disappointed. But, if you’re enjoying the way the hockey club is competing under Wilson, then you have every reason to believe things are heading in the proper direction. Your comment about last year’s team – though understandable on the whole – isn’t accurate. There were many periods in which the Leafs were highly competent. Unfortunately for you and the team, they again occurred primarily after any realistic shot at the playoffs had disappeared. I also take issue with your contention I’m not noticing any “positive” signs about this year’s club. Though I’ve mentioned on numerous occasions that I don’t deal in positives and negatives – that’s the domain of people with an emotional investment in the club – I hope you’ll agree that I do not withhold credit in my blogs when it is due. Go back and look again… whenever the Leafs play well, I’ll mention it. But, when they flounder, you won’t get any sugar-coating. And, I sense many Leaf rooters prefer rose-colored analysis.
MARTIN IN TORONTO asks, among many questions, how can Richard Peddie be fired?
Easy, Martin. If the condominium development on the west side of the Air Canada Centre isn’t at 100% occupancy when it opens, the CEO of Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment’s ass will be squarely on the line.
DAN IN OTTAWA writes: I was joking with my friends while watching Tuesday night’s game against Anaheim that the Leafs have a better chance of winning in overtime by pulling their goalie than they do in the shootout. How can the club finally solve this Pandora’s Box?
The obvious answer, Dan, is to assemble a team that has a legitimate chance to win games in regulation time. The Leafs are nowhere close to that caliber at the moment, in spite of the narrow early-season results. Otherwise, this has become as much an emotional issue as a physical one. I don’t believe the players have any confidence they can succeed in the shootout with a goalie that is inherently weak at stopping breakaways. It’s a major problem with the club right now, and it prompted Wilson to make that unusual decision against the Ducks to replace Vesa Toskala with a stone-cold Joseph… then to rather boldly suggest he’d do the same thing again. Until the Leafs somehow pull out a couple or three shootout decisions in a short period of time, they will go into the penalty shot competitions – like the rest of us – believing they are a foregone conclusion.
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