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3:00 UPDATE: The Lightning have announced the roster for tonight's game as follows:
Forwards: Evgeny Artyukhin, Brandon Bochenski, Chris Gratton, Jussi Jokinen, David Koci, Zenon Konopka, Ryan Malone, Michel Ouellet, Mark Recchi, Marty St. Louis, Steven Stamkos and Radim Vrbata.
Defensemen: Matt Carle, Andrew Hutchinson, Andrej Meszaros, Janne Niskala, Shane O'Brien and Matt Smaby
Goaltenders: Karri Ramo and Olaf Kolzig
Your bubble guys, as I identified earlier, that are in tonight's lineup? Bochenski, Koci, Konopka, Ouellet, Hutchinson and Smaby. Defensemen Vladimir Mihalik and Mike Lundin will not dress, nor will forwards Ryan Craig or Jason Ward. Does this mean decisions, one way or another, on those four have already been made? That, my friends, is what they call a definite maybe.
Read on for my analysis from earlier today ...
JJ
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The Tampa Bay Lightning made the trip to New York for tonight's exhibition game against the New York Rangers with 32 players in tow. Before they depart for Europe after the game, that number is expected to be reduced by as many as five. Let the speculation begin ...
The most intriguing situation, for me, remains the defense. Paul Ranger remains out with the shoulder injury and is unlikely to play during the Europe trip, though coach Barry Melrose has said it's not completely out of the question. Still, Ranger's injury probably necessitates that the team carry an extra defenseman, at least for now. Matt Carle, Andrej Meszaros and Shane O'Brien will all make the opening roster. After that, it gets a bit complicated.
Andrew Hutchinson, Mike Lundin, Vladimir Mihalik, Janne Niskala and Matt Smaby are all with the Lightning in New York, though at least one will stay behind after tonight's game. My gut tells me one of Mihalik or Smaby, and perhaps both, get reassigned to Norfolk, with Hutchinson, Lundin and Niskala rounding out the Bolts defense for now.
As I predicted when he first signed, Hutchinson likely would play that 7th defenseman's role when things finally shake out and Ranger is back in the lineup. It's tough to stay fresh when you're not in the lineup every night but Hutchinson has done it before, particularly in Carolina. To be honest, he hasn't exactly dazzled his way through training camp but, though the club maintains that one-way contracts do not guarantee anything, Hutchinson would have to clear waivers if he were to be sent down, making Mihalik and/or Smaby more likely to head south.
Lundin would also be subject to waivers if the team wanted to get him some seasoning at the AHL level but there's no way he'd make it through unclaimed. Besides, with a full year of NHL experience under his belt, I doubt the Lightning would want Lundin to feel as though he was taking a step backward and he hasn't done anything to warrant what could only be perceived as a demotion.
As for Niskala, I've been overly impressed with his well-rounded play. He'd been touted as an offensive, puck-moving defenseman and he has certainly shown those capabilities but what has proven his worth and what will make it very difficult to let him play in Europe this upcoming season are his defensive capabilities. He's been responsible in his own end and gritty when necessary. Grit, as expected, is a welcome trait with this bunch. I'm not saying Niskala's been running guys left and right or anything like that but he's shown an unexpected physical presence is all and I know the team is happy with him thus far.
And this is all assuming there is no deal for a veteran defenseman, of course. I don't expect one, by any means, but you never know ...
As for the forwards, the competition has been fierce and the ante is up significantly thanks, in part, to the ferocity shown by the likes of Zenon Konopka and David Koci, neither of whom I expected to be this close to making the squad.
First thing's first. It's still unclear as to whether or not Vincent Lecavalier will be ready to go when the regular season begins next Saturday. He'll probably give it a whirl against Eisbaren Berlin this Sunday and see how he feels thereafter. (I'm hesitant to predict whether or not he'll be ready until I hear about how he responds to the exhibition games. For caution's sake, and the sake of making my guessing game of who makes the club a little easier by allowing for an extra forward in his place, let's assume he'll sit out at least the first two games.)
Vinny's linemates, Vinny Prospal and Martin St. Louis, aren't going anywhere of course and, if Vinny 4 can't go, Jussi Jokinen has done more than enough to earn a longer look pivoting the top line in his stead. Further, Jokinen seems to have nabbed himself a fan in Melrose, who has made it known that he'd like to keep him around. As for those of us who had long pegged Jokinen as one of the forwards who'd be on the outs come camp's end, I suppose it's possible we spoke too soon. (Won't be the last time ...)
The Ryan Malone-Steven Stamkos-Radim Vrbata second line plan seems to be firmly in place. The chemistry all had hoped this trio would have looks to be developing nicely. I don't see any reason why they won't be sticking together for the long haul.
Veterans Gary Roberts and Mark Recchi look as good as ever and there's something to this "GRR" line of Roberts and Recchi alongside Chris Gratton. (It's worth noting that there are some who believe Gratton's spot on the team may be in jeopardy. To that, I say, "Why re-sign him then?" I'm betting on Gratts sticking around.)
Newcomer Adam Hall is safe, as is Evgeny Artyukhin, though the team admits he is still a work in progress. Go ahead and get excited about Arty, because he's shown hints that his game has grown leaps and bounds since his last NHL game, but be aware that you're going to see him make his fair share of mistakes until he learns to shy away from the silly hooks and holds and penalties of that nature. (To me, if a guy like Artyukhin is going to be in the box, it better be out of necessity, or maybe a roughing call after hammering someone through the boards.)
When it comes down to it, with Lecavalier (maybe) and Nick Tarnasky out of the lineup, you've got six forwards vying for the last couple of spots. If the team is going to take my guess of 23 healthy players on the Europe trip, two goaltenders (Karri Ramo will tackle number one duties in Norfolk), seven defensemen and the eleven forwards I've already accounted for leaves three spots left for the following guys to battle for:
Brandon Bochenski, Ryan Craig, Koci, Konopka, Michel Ouellet and Jason Ward.
Bochenski got off to a fast start in the exhibition season, scoring twice in Pittsburgh, but I see him as a depth guy and one of the first to get the call when the inevitable injury bug hits.
With Tarnasky out, centers Craig and Konopka, see their chances of hanging around increase. Not necessarily that Tarnasky would usurp either of the two had he stayed healthy but, in the end, it's a numbers game and Tarnasky's tough luck gives us one less number to deal with. I'd say it's a safe bet that one (and maybe both) of these two will find themselves centering the fourth line come opening night. Give Craig the edge, but don't count out "Konopper", who has done nothing short of everything he can possibly do to get noticed.
If Konopka stays, that could mean a demotion for Koci as this team has already proven to be "team tough" and both of these two sticking around is a bit of overkill. Koci would then remain available for a call-up on an as needed basis.
We're left with Ouellet and Ward. Ouellet saw fourth line action alongside Dana Tyrell and Paul Szczechura the other night at home against the Penguins and I speculated that perhaps we could read something into that, given the inevitable returns of Tyrell and Szczechura to Prince George (WHL) and Norfolk, respectively. Minutes later, he scored a nice goal and, overall, played a solid game that night, effectively shutting me up for the time being.
As for Ward, if only because he had been scheduled to play against the Rangers on Tuesday but was held out late in favor of Artyukhin, I think his days in Tampa may be numbered. He's a serviceable NHL veteran with 335 games under his belt. He'll likely catch on elsewhere, should he fall victim to the numbers game here.
After sifting through it all, here's what I'm predicting the roster will look like on the Europe trip:
Forwards: Artyukhin, Craig, Gratton, Hall, Halpern (injured), Jokinen, Konopka, Lecavalier (injured), Malone, Ouellet, Prospal, Recchi, Roberts, St. Louis, Stamkos, Tarnasky (injured), Vrbata
Defensemen: Carle, Hutchinson, Lundin, Meszaros, Mihalik, Niskala, O'Brien, Ranger (injured)
Goaltenders: Kolzig, Smith
That's my guess anyway ... we'll see what happens tonight.
MSG has coverage of tonight's game and you can listen live on 620WDAE.
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