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In Search of the Salary Cap Ceiling - with a lil’ help from Cap Central |
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CAP Attack
After spending the week mulling over the various scenarios available to the Caps in regards to managing their Salary Cap limit, I decided to see if our resident HockeyBuzz guru and CAP Master over at
Cap Central, Chip McCLeary, could lend his hand at breaking down the available options:
Here is what Chip had to say along with my analysis:
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CM: “The simple answer is Brian Pothier goes to LTIR. That alone puts the Capitals less than $200,000 over the cap ... at which point, a couple of scenarios could take place”:
SH: This matter has seemingly been swept under the rug and all but considered as a given. Although, I am of the belief that George McPhee virtually has no choice but to do this, there could always be a reason why this matter has yet to be addressed and why no announcement has been made. This is likely to be the first step in addressing the Caps need to get under the CAP and will likely occur in the coming weeks before training camp. Once the $2.5M owed to BP comes off the books, the CAP issues are virtually solved.
CM: “Does Karl Alzner start the season in the NHL? If he doesn't, then problem solved.”
(If Alzner starts the season with the big club, then the question is does John Erskine start the season in the NHL? Since he has a 1-way contract, If he goes down to start, he'd have to clear waivers both on the way down and on the way back up; is there a lot of demand for him?)
SH: Since it appears that Karl is being considered as the replacement for BP, slapping his salary onto the books is also another assumed given for the upcoming season. Alzner will start the season with the Caps and the only way his salary will come off the books is if he needs to be sent down to Hershey for a little conditioning. Erskine served his role last season and with the departure of former first round pick Steve Eminger has, at the very least, earned his spot as the 6/7th defenseman. Milan Jurcina, on the other hand, is in dire need to impress early on in the season, if he does not he will likely become trade bait.
CM: “Is Chris Clark healthy enough to start the season? ...if he's not, he starts on LTIR and buys the Capitals some breathing room early on, and then it's a matter of how long is he out.
SH: The Captain of the Capitals is the ultimate wildcard. His salary, a cap hit of $2.633,333 Million this upcoming season, is also a lot of cash to consider. I know that Clark is still undergoing intensive rehab and is still monitoring his injury very carefully. He has made some very important improvements over the last month or two, yet, having missed 64 games last season, it is not likely that he will want to miss that many again this season. Therefore, in my opinion, it is not a far-fetched scenario to see Clark start the season on the IR. If this happens, his salary will come off the books one game a time at a pro-rated $32,113.82 per game.(Quick math: BP’s $2.5M + Clark missing the first 10 games and the Caps would not need to make any roster moves to get under the CAP.)
CM: Does Eric Fehr start the season in the NHL? If not, then again ... problem solved - though he'll have to clear waivers on the way down; even though he's a former 1st-round pick, is it worth it to another team to claim him off waivers and keep him on the roster even though he's got a career 48 NHL games under his belt and was injured for over half of last season?
SH: My take on Eric Fehr is that he has the potential of a genuinely good power forward waiting to break out of him. His last couple seasons have been mired by struggle and injury and as a result Fehr has not gotten to show what he can do at the top level when in his best shape. This is the season where he can do that. Much like Jurcina, Fehr will need to impress to secure his spot in the lineup. If not, he may become trade bait as well, but a more realistic scenario may be more time in Hershey. McPhee would be loathe to give up on a possible power scoring top line forward and if Fehr doesn’t fit in right away, he may still figure into the long term plans.
CM: “My guess ... is that they start by seeing if Clark has to go on LTIR(and BP); after that, they watch Alzner to see if he's really ready for the NHL, and after that they send Erskine down and replace him with Lepisto if Erskine happens to be claimed on recall waivers. A trade is certainly possible, but that's an aspect I don't even try to speculate on without knowing more details.”
CM: “My guess is as good as anyone else's on the Capitals [or most other teams], but I don't instinctively go to "X” is over the cap, so clearly they HAVE to make a trade, so “X” is clearly getting dealt" because many times, there's other options available that are much simpler. With the Capitals, I think that will be the case as well.”
SH: I could not have broken it down better myself. The reality that the Capitals can slip under the CAP rather easily should not elude us. McPhee and his team will have to be creative in order to make sure that are able to keep the squad they have assembled, but as Chip has alluded to, the Caps are not being forced into a position whereby they lose anything they have gained. Smart CAP management will make sure that these issues are taken care of before camp.
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I would like extend my thanks to Chip McCleary for taking the time point out some of the key factors surrounding Washington’s CAP situation. The many scenarios that Chip and I have analyzed here will allow the Caps to be comfortably within CAP limits by the time the season starts.
I realize that I did not go into the possibility of trades and that is because I agree with Chip. If the Caps were interested in shedding a large caliber salary, the rumors would be stronger. They have multiple avenues to pursue in order to not trade anyone from their core. Especially Nylander or Fedorov. Notice how I did not include either of them in possible CAP shedding plans? These two are here to stay, regardless of what the real estate market is telling you. Unlike the Ducks, who are over the CAP yet still looking to add a player(Selanne), Anaheim will force itself to make a trade. The problem there is that they are considering losing a strong veteran depth defenseman(Schneider) in order to add a strong veteran scoring forward. Since this is not a situation that Washington is facing, fans should be happy in knowing that McPhee can keep this strong Capitals team that he has built, together.
I will be back to have a final word on the great 91 & 92 debate tomorrow. I had a piece ready to go along with this one on Washinton’s CAP issues, but I think a couple days break from this debate will do us all some good...before we put it to bed until the start of the season. For now I thought some serious talk of how to get under the CAP was in order.
Do you agree with the scenarios laid down by Chip or myself?
Let’s hear your plans for the Caps...
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Go CAps!!!!!
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