I don’t want to put a damper on deadline day because we all love talking trades, but here are a couple things for GMs to keep in mind when the madness hits on Tuesday:
1. A lot of people say that once you make it into the playoffs, anything can happen and anyone can take home the Cup. As I wrote about last season, history has proven that statement to be false.
When Anaheim won the Cup last year, it was the ninth straight season where a team in the top four in the regular season league standings finished on top. It was the eleventh straight season where a team in the top five won the Cup.
In fact, only once in the last twenty seasons has a team that finished outside the top seven league-wide won the Cup and that was New Jersey in the strike-shortened 1995 season.
07 Anaheim - 4th overall
06 Carolina - 4th overall
04 Tampa Bay - 2nd overall
03 New Jersey - 4th overall
02 Detroit - 1st overall
01 Colorado - 1st overall
00 New Jersey - 4th overall
99 Dallas - 1st overall
98 Detroit - 3rd overall
97 Detroit - 5th overall
96 Colorado - 3rd overall
95 New Jersey - 9th overall (short season)
94 New York - 1st overall
93 Montreal - 6th overall
92 Pittsburgh - 6th overall
91 Pittsburgh - 7th overall
90 Edmonton - 5th overall
89 Calgary - 1st overall
88 Edmonton - 3rd overall
87 Edmonton - 1st overall
30% of the time the 1st Overall Team won the Cup
50% of the time a Top Three Team won the Cup
80% of the time a Top Five Team won the Cup
95% of the time a Top Seven Team won the Cup
Think you can sneak into the playoffs, get hot and win four straight series and then host a big parade with the Cup? Well Cinderella has gotten close – very close (see Oilers, Edmonton) but inevitably a top seeded team will win the Stanley Cup. Sixteen games is just too much for an underdog to undertake, especially when the degree of difficulty increases with each game/round.
2. The trade market in 2007 around this time was intense and unpredictable. And for teams picking up rentals it really couldn’t have been more disastrous.
Need proof? How’s this…
Between January 1st and February 27th of 2007 there were 57 trades involving 160 assets – 104 players and prospects plus another 56 draft picks.
Huge names like Forsberg, Smyth, Guerin, Tkachuk were moved, plus second-tier names like Zubrus, Comrie, Roberts, Rivet, Zhitnik, Conroy, Stuart, Nagy, Norstrom, etc, etc, etc.
Nine first-round draft picks and ten second-round draft picks changed hands.
Of all the seventy-four players who were dealt and played at least one game at the NHL level with their new team, guess who had the most goals in the playoffs?
(SCROLL DOWN)
(I BET YOU WON’T GUESS)
(SERIOUSLY, IT”S A SHOCKER)
Todd Bertuzzi.
That’s right. Of all the players dealt, Todd Bertuzzi had the greatest offensive impact with his 3 goals in 16 games.
Last year there were 55 players who scored three or more goals during the playoffs. Bertuzzi was the only one who was acquired within two months of the deadline.
And if you want to look at points, Dainus Zubrus led the way with eight (in 15 games).
In all, 6.2% of the 401 goals scored in the playoffs were scored by players acquired in Jan/Feb deals:
3 goals – Bertuzzi
2 goals – Comrie, Forsberg, Mara, Rivet, Roberts, Smolinski
1 goals – Avery, Belanger, Bergeron, Conroy, Dupuis, Jackman, Nagy, Saprykin, Smyth, Tkachuk
That’s what nine first-rounders, ten-second-rounders, eleven third rounds and twenty-six mid-to-late round picks PLUS prospects like Parent, Coburn, Nilsson, O’Marra, Matthias, Barriball, Cliché, Bourret, Kaigorodov and others got you if you were shopping for playoff help prior to 3 pm on the 27th.
Think there may have been some buyer’s remorse come draft day?
More thoughts…
* It’s worth noting that last seasons draft was widely agreed to be a weak draft. This season has been called the strongest going back to 2003. Some names from the first two rounds of that ’03 draft include Fleury, Staal, Horton, Zherdev, Vanek, Michalek, Suter, Coburn, Phaneuf, Kostitsyn, Carter, Brown, Seabrook, Nilsson, Bernier, Parise, Getzlaf, Burns, Kesler, Richards, Perry, Eaves, Bergeron, Carle, Weber and O’Sullivan.
If you have the chance to draft a young player potentially of that same caliber, you just cannot give it away for a rental player – and if you do you’d better hope that player lives up to expectations and helps to deliver a Cup. If you win it’s worth it. Otherwise…
Remember that Nieuwendyk for Iginla only worked out for Dallas because they were able to have playoff success and win a Cup. Nobody remembers that he left Calgary as a PPG+ player and only topped 55 points once for the Stars. And for sure nobody remembers that in the first two seasons after that deal the Stars failed to get out of the first round and in the third Nieuwendyk was knocked out of the playoffs and played just one game.
No way Brian Burke is trading that Edmonton pick for a rental like Sundin. I’d be floored if he did.
* I don’t understand the notion that Sundin would only waive his no-trade clause in the event that Fletcher is blown away by an offer. Isn’t any good offer going to improve the Leafs’ hopes for the future? Either you’re willing to leave or you’re not – I don’t see why the quality of deal on the table would be a determining factor. Location, sure, but this makes no sense.
The Sundin saga surely helps to fill space in the Toronto newspapers but really all we need from Mats is the answer to one question:
Do you want to win a Stanley Cup before your career is over?
_____ YES ______ NO
* As for Forsberg, for a guy who doesn’t like getting attention he has sure gotten a lot of it over the past two seasons.
* Am I the only one who thinks Brian Campbell is just a little overrated at the moment? Don’t get me wrong I think he’s a very good player but it’s worth noting that both Lydman and Tallinder logged more ice time per game in each of the last two playoffs. The last two defenders to garner this kind of hype around deadline day – Bryan McCabe and Sheldon Souray.
* Prior to last season when nine first rounders were dealt, only 18 trades were made involving first-round picks over the previous nine years between New Years and Deadline Day:
1997: 0
1998: 0
1999: 4 (Bure, Chelios x 2, Damphousse)
2000: 1 (Bourque)
2001 4 (Blake x 2, Linden/Zubrus, Tkachuk)
2002: 3 (Bure, Oates, Nieuwendyk/Langebrunner)
2003: 2 (Nolan, Schneider)
2004: 3 (Lang, Gonchar, Leetch)
2006: 3 (Weight, Roloson, Witt)
2007: 9 (Forsberg, Smyth, Tkachuk, Guerin, Nagy, Zubrus, Rivet, O’Brien, Norstrom (’08 1st)
Under the new economic system, you'd think first rounders should be more important, not significantly less. I think last year was an exception though, rather than the new way of doing business.
* Maybe it’s just me but I see Hossa and Montreal as not the greatest fit.
Assuming Ryder is dealt, the Habs will have just ONE Canadian player in their top twelve scorers (thirteen including the acquired player):
Kovalev (RUS), Plekanec (CZE), Markov (RUS), Koivu (FIN), Streit (SWI), A. Kostitsyn (BEL), Higgins (USA), Latendresse (CAN), Hamrlik (CZE), Smolinski (USA), Komisarek (USA), S. Kostitsyn (BEL)
There's absolutely no need for a Don Cherry-style rant here but given the makeup of past Cup winners you would think that another Canadian or two on the Canadiens wouldn’t hurt their chances.
Also I admit that Hossa’s 13 playoff goals in 51 games would make me very weary.
* Brad Richards can play on my team any day, even at $7.8 mil. The guy is a winner, he is a complete player, he’s only 27, he’s durable, and he comes through in the clutch.
One final thought for today – being a great GM is a lot like being a top chef. You need to find not only the right ingredients but the right amount of everything, you need a lot of patience, you have to be able to evaluate your creation with a critical eye and timing is so important.
There’s going to be a lot cooking in the next few days – but there will be only one top chef once the calendar hits June.
Last year things got a little out of hand on deadline day. It will be interested to see how willing teams will be to take a chance on dealing the next Iginla or Getlzaf for a player who may only stick around for a short time.
If you missed my team-by-team charts from earlier in the week, you can download the PDF:
*****DOWNLOAD THE CHARTS HERE*****
I’ll be posting an updated version in the coming days so if you spot any errors, just let me know. All of your comments from the previous thread and the transactions/injuries from the week have already been taken into account for the next version.
I'll also be working on putting together my thoughts on each team over the next two nights.
125 hours to go...
Danny –
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