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Meltzer's Musings: The Flyers and Risk-Tolerance at the Draft |
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There is no more pressure-packed round in the NHL Draft than the first one. It's the most scrutinized and debated round prior to the Draft and the most nitpicked and second-guessed in the years that follow. There will always be 20-20 hindsight moaning about how "[insert future star name] was available in [round 2, 3, 4, etc] but [insert team name] chose [insert name of player destined for obscurity] instead," but no miss hurts more than a first-round player who does not pan out
For the most part, the Flyers scouts have done well for themselves in the first round of the Draft over the last 25 years, even when picking in the latter stages of the opening round.
Interestingly, it's been when the Flyers have shown some risk-tolerance rather making a conservative pick that they have ended up with their best long-term picks who went on to have strong NHL careers. When they've gone "too safe," they haven't done as well.
For instance, in 1990, after Flyers general manager Russ Farwell was unable to move up to draft Petr Nedved (whom Farwell knew well from their time together with the WHL's Seattle Thunderbirds), the team went very conservative and took Mike Ricci fourth overall. Jaromir Jagr went fifth to Pittsburgh.
Now, at the time this point was made, the Velvet Revolution bringing about the end of communism in the former Czechoslovakia had only taken place one year earlier. No one was sure of the stability of the situation or how it would impact Czech and Slovak hockey players who wanted to come to the NHL. In the still-recent past, players either had to defect as young men (the Stastny brothers, Petr Svoboda, Nedved) or else wait until their late 20s or early 30s to be released for a fee by the national hockey federation (such as former Flyers defenseman Miroslav "Cookie" Dvorak) to come over.
Ricci was a heart-and-soul type of gritty center with decent all-around talent, and he had a solid NHL career both before and after being traded by the Flyers in the Eric Lindros blockbuster, the Flyers would soon realize they left the bigger impact player on the table. Jagr was able to come over to the Pittsburgh Penguins immediately and rose quickly to superstardom.
The very next year, the Flyers did a 180-degree turnabout, and went way off the board with the selection of Peter Forsberg with the sixth overall pick of the 1991 Draft. What matters here is not that the Flyers (very reluctantly) parted with Forsberg's rights one year later in the Eric Lindros trade. Strictly from a drafting standpoint, taking Forsberg so early was a considered an very risk move in a deep Draft.
The Hockey News, which bases its Draft Preview Rankings on discussions with a cross-section of scouts from around the NHL, had Forsberg rated 25th overall; one spot behind Mike Pomichter.
TNH described Forsberg as "solid second rounder who could sneak into the first round." A scout said, "I'd compare him to Tomas Steen in terms of style, though I don't think he'll be as good as Steen."
As a matter of fact, the Flyers were roundly criticized for "reaching" to take Forsberg at #6 overall in a deep Draft. They did so at the strong recommendation of the club's chief European scout Inge Hammarström, who may have been the first person to see Forsberg as a future NHL superstar. TSN's Bob McKenzie had a tip that Forsberg was the Flyers' top choice, but few others believed Philly would actually take the player that early.
Other examples of the Flyers tolerating some risk and winding up taking a player who went on to a strong career: Dainius Zubrus (15th overall in 1996), Simon Gagne (22nd overall in 1988), Justin Williams (28th overall in 2001), and Claude Giroux (22nd overall in 2006).
In the cases of both Gagne and especially Giroux, size was a big concern. When the Flyers drafted Giroux, he carried just 155 pounds on his frame at the start of his draft-eligible season and stood a generous 5-foot-10. Even today, he is undersized at a listed 5-foot-11 and 171 pounds. Gagne was also on the small side until a growth spurt in his late teens.
In Zubrus' case, the player never played a game of major junior hockey. The Flyers drafted him based on a projection of his size and skill. While he's never become an offensive star in the NHL (as was initially predicted), Zubrus has been a fine player otherwise and has played a prolific 1,243 regular season games and 92 playoff games in the NHL.
With Williams, there were dual concerns about skating and lack of muscle (with question marks of whether his frame was going to make him too injury-prone). His hockey smarts and two-way skills made him a first-round candidate but a few pundits predicted he could slide deep into the second round.
The jury is still out and will remain so for several years to come on whether the Flyers' first-round selections of defensemen Samuel Morin in 2013 and Travis Sanheim in 2014 will pan out. There was a fair amount of risk associated with both picks -- the hulking Morin for his rawness and Sanheim for being a late-riser with considerable need to add muscle -- but both players currently appear to be on a solid NHL track. One year post-draft, some scouts even think Sanheim has future NHL All-Star caliber upside.
There is nothing wrong with making a "safe" pick. Sean Couturier was pretty much a no-brainer pick when he slid to eighth overall for the Flyers in 2011, although defenseman Dougie Hamilton (who went to Boston with the next pick) was also an intriguing if somewhat riskier possibility.
However, it is not uncommon for a so-called safe pick to end up being not-so-safe after all. In the middling 1992 Draft, THN deemed Ryan Sittler the "safest pick" in terms of tools to be an NHL player, although others had higher upsides. The Flyers took him seventh overall. For a variety of reasons, the most significant being a run of terrible luck with injuries, Sittler never played a single game in the NHL.
Actually, the Flyers did not expect to use the pick in the first place. They had traded the seventh overall pick to the Quebec Nordiques as part of the Lindros deal only for the deal to be held up after the Nords changed their mind after the deal had already been agreed upon and traded Lindros' rights to the New York Rangers. With the trade in limbo and ultimately bound for arbitration, the Flyers chose Sittler.
Other examples of "safe" Flyers first-round selections in this time period: defensemen Jeff Woywitka (27th overall in 2001) and Luca Sbisa (19th overall in 2008). There was nothing inherently wrong with either of these selections based on their physical makeup and projectability as NHL defensemen but there were options acknowledged to have higher upside -- although Sbisa's upside was concerned reasonably high as well -- with a somewhat greater risk factor, such as Fedor Tyutin in 2001 or John Carlson in 2008.
It goes without saying that not all risks pay off and sometimes the conservative pick ends up surpassing expectations. That's the case with every organization. However, the Flyers track record has shown that when they take a bit of a leap of faith in the first round, they often end up being proven right.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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