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Chicago Blackhawks Blogger •
A lot's being made of the Blackhawks' impending signings of Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane and Duncan Keith. Various reports have the Hawks needing to complete trades in order to sign the players, Duncan Keith (contrary to his own recent quotes) not completely onboard, etc.
Now, the picture is not completely rosy. But nor is it the doom and gloom (or even close to it) that others are predicting.
Nor is the picture totally clear. But I'll do my best here to place things in perspective.
FICTION: Brian Campbell, Cristobal Huet and Marian Hossa's contracts have ruined the Hawks' future.
FACT: They've made the next year or two tight, but were probably smart moves for the present and long-term future.
Hossa has yet to even play for the Blackhawks. Yet those who know Hossa's game and the style the Blackhawks employ, feel that he will perhaps take them to an even higher level. And Hossa's contract was, in fact, structured specifically to make signing Keith, Toews and Kane affordable.
As for Campbell, again it's hard to say what he is worth because he really is a specialist, a power play QB (who has unquestionably improved the Blackhawk power play from 2007-08) and an offensive catalyst from the back end at even strength. Again, when you look at the Blackhawks and their reliance on an end-to-end transition game, a player like Campbell takes on more value. Is he worth $7.1 million a year to this team? Maybe not. But he's also certainly worth something approaching that.
The much-maligned Huet? Well, from a pure value perspective, consider that as the Hawks' starting goaltender, he is making $1.15 million less than his predecessor. Their respective stats this season? Huet is 10-4-1 with a 2.17 GAA and a .907 save%. Nikolai Khabibulin is 7-9-2, with a 3.03 GAA and a .915 save%. And by an even more apples to apples comparison, Huet, in spite of a rocky early season, is off to a better start than Khabibulin had last year in Chicago.
Net-net, if/when the Blackhawks sign the extensions with their big three RFAs, at or near the dollars that have been reported, they will have the following five players signed through 2015 at a combined average cap hit of roughly $29 million: Hossa, Kane, Toews, Keith, Campbell.
Granted, that leaves $29 million to pay 20 or so other players this year and perhaps next under the current cap. That's tight.
But then consider what the cap will be in 2015— easily 33% higher than it is now, with all five of these marquee players (even with the then 36 year old Hossa and Campbell) still in or near the prime of their careers. And it can safely be argued that Keith, Toews and Kane will be better players then than they are today.
Have the Hawks mortgaged their long-term future? The argument can be made that they've guaranteed they'll be a competitive team for at least the next six years.
FICTION: The Hawks need to trade players to make these deals work under the cap and have no leverage in trades because of it.
FACT: Correct and incorrect.
That the Blackhawks would need to trade young talent to get under the cap with the signings of the Big Three is no news. The timing of said trades is the real issue. If the Blackhawks make a deal or two before or at the trading deadline, they have as much (or more) leverage than most teams do, especially if they deal with Eastern Conference teams. There are always sellers and buyers at the trading deadline, many teams looking to offload impending veteran UFAs (rent-a-players), looking to add talent for playoff runs or young players to build around for the future. These deals are made or not solely on the value of players offered. The Blackhawks have more of these kind of assets to deal than most teams do. While players like Cam Barker, Kris Versteeg and Patrick Sharp are not prime core players for the Blackhawks, they could be for other teams. Would losing, say, especially a Sharp, hurt the Hawks? Sure, But they would also get something substantial in return in addition to freeing up cap space: high draft picks, an elite rent-a-player, etc.
If the Blackhawks wait until after the season to make deals, yes, they lose leverage as the market for trades is simply not as heated and fluid as it is at the trading deadline. And, once the trading deadline passes, they lose the advantage of being able to take on and derive (albeit short-lived) value from other teams' impending UFAs as payment for their players.
FICTION: If the Blackhawks fail to sign Keith, Toews and Kane now, they'll lose one or more of them in free agency.
FACT: The Blackhawks hold most of the cards.
These players are impending restricted free agents, not unrestricted free agents. So, even in the seemingly unlikely event these players reach restricted free agency on July 1, they will do so under high qualifying offers, guaranteeing the Blackhawks significant compensation and raising the already high price for any team that would try to sign them away. How many high profile RFAs have been signed away from incumbent teams under this CBA? Not many.
Further, these negotiations are helped by the fact that Kane and Toews have the same agent, Pat Brisson from CAA, who clearly recognizes the value (both on the ice and off) of his players remaining in a major media market with this resurgent franchise. And, he has to balance the demands of one player versus another vis a vis the dollars the Hawks have to spend.
FICTION: The Blackhawks must trade a player or players now in order to finalize Duncan Keith's deal.
FACT: This could be true, but no one except those close to the negotiations knows this for sure.
There have been reports from TSN's Bob McKenzie that the Blackhawks must move players before finalizing these extensions, or at least Keith's, because of tagging rules that state the team's payroll for next year must conform to the salary cap. Technically, this makes sense, and could be true, but I have not heard any official confirmation of this. Can the Hawks afford to wait until, say, the trading deadline? Sure. Keith has stated in the media in the last two days that he not only wants to remain in Chicago for the rest of his career, but wants to do so under a contract that helps the team keep its core together.
RANDOM SHOTS:
Great road game last night by the Hawks. Big win for Cristobal Huet who is slowly winning over a lot of the doubters.
Anyone else see the highlights of the Blues' win over Tampa Bay? Chris Mason was absolutely amazing, and quietly is having a great season for the Notes.
Unreal goal by Steve Stamkos last night.
Blog favorite Troy "Truck" Brouwer got a nice goal last night, banging away on rebounds in the crease. Number 22 is presently on pace to score 24-25 goals this year.
Kudos to Bryan Bickell. The former #2 draft pick who has all the tools to be an NHL player (size, skating and a big shot) seems to have put it all together and has regained the favor of the organization. Bickell has been a consistent recent call-up from Rockford, over Jack Skille and Jake Dowell, and is getting top line minutes in a power forward role. While he has not been on the scoresheet, Bickell is making his presence felt by constantly going to the net, creating screens, etc.
JJ
Now, the picture is not completely rosy. But nor is it the doom and gloom (or even close to it) that others are predicting.
Nor is the picture totally clear. But I'll do my best here to place things in perspective.
FICTION: Brian Campbell, Cristobal Huet and Marian Hossa's contracts have ruined the Hawks' future.
FACT: They've made the next year or two tight, but were probably smart moves for the present and long-term future.
Hossa has yet to even play for the Blackhawks. Yet those who know Hossa's game and the style the Blackhawks employ, feel that he will perhaps take them to an even higher level. And Hossa's contract was, in fact, structured specifically to make signing Keith, Toews and Kane affordable.
As for Campbell, again it's hard to say what he is worth because he really is a specialist, a power play QB (who has unquestionably improved the Blackhawk power play from 2007-08) and an offensive catalyst from the back end at even strength. Again, when you look at the Blackhawks and their reliance on an end-to-end transition game, a player like Campbell takes on more value. Is he worth $7.1 million a year to this team? Maybe not. But he's also certainly worth something approaching that.
The much-maligned Huet? Well, from a pure value perspective, consider that as the Hawks' starting goaltender, he is making $1.15 million less than his predecessor. Their respective stats this season? Huet is 10-4-1 with a 2.17 GAA and a .907 save%. Nikolai Khabibulin is 7-9-2, with a 3.03 GAA and a .915 save%. And by an even more apples to apples comparison, Huet, in spite of a rocky early season, is off to a better start than Khabibulin had last year in Chicago.
Net-net, if/when the Blackhawks sign the extensions with their big three RFAs, at or near the dollars that have been reported, they will have the following five players signed through 2015 at a combined average cap hit of roughly $29 million: Hossa, Kane, Toews, Keith, Campbell.
Granted, that leaves $29 million to pay 20 or so other players this year and perhaps next under the current cap. That's tight.
But then consider what the cap will be in 2015— easily 33% higher than it is now, with all five of these marquee players (even with the then 36 year old Hossa and Campbell) still in or near the prime of their careers. And it can safely be argued that Keith, Toews and Kane will be better players then than they are today.
Have the Hawks mortgaged their long-term future? The argument can be made that they've guaranteed they'll be a competitive team for at least the next six years.
FICTION: The Hawks need to trade players to make these deals work under the cap and have no leverage in trades because of it.
FACT: Correct and incorrect.
That the Blackhawks would need to trade young talent to get under the cap with the signings of the Big Three is no news. The timing of said trades is the real issue. If the Blackhawks make a deal or two before or at the trading deadline, they have as much (or more) leverage than most teams do, especially if they deal with Eastern Conference teams. There are always sellers and buyers at the trading deadline, many teams looking to offload impending veteran UFAs (rent-a-players), looking to add talent for playoff runs or young players to build around for the future. These deals are made or not solely on the value of players offered. The Blackhawks have more of these kind of assets to deal than most teams do. While players like Cam Barker, Kris Versteeg and Patrick Sharp are not prime core players for the Blackhawks, they could be for other teams. Would losing, say, especially a Sharp, hurt the Hawks? Sure, But they would also get something substantial in return in addition to freeing up cap space: high draft picks, an elite rent-a-player, etc.
If the Blackhawks wait until after the season to make deals, yes, they lose leverage as the market for trades is simply not as heated and fluid as it is at the trading deadline. And, once the trading deadline passes, they lose the advantage of being able to take on and derive (albeit short-lived) value from other teams' impending UFAs as payment for their players.
FICTION: If the Blackhawks fail to sign Keith, Toews and Kane now, they'll lose one or more of them in free agency.
FACT: The Blackhawks hold most of the cards.
These players are impending restricted free agents, not unrestricted free agents. So, even in the seemingly unlikely event these players reach restricted free agency on July 1, they will do so under high qualifying offers, guaranteeing the Blackhawks significant compensation and raising the already high price for any team that would try to sign them away. How many high profile RFAs have been signed away from incumbent teams under this CBA? Not many.
Further, these negotiations are helped by the fact that Kane and Toews have the same agent, Pat Brisson from CAA, who clearly recognizes the value (both on the ice and off) of his players remaining in a major media market with this resurgent franchise. And, he has to balance the demands of one player versus another vis a vis the dollars the Hawks have to spend.
FICTION: The Blackhawks must trade a player or players now in order to finalize Duncan Keith's deal.
FACT: This could be true, but no one except those close to the negotiations knows this for sure.
There have been reports from TSN's Bob McKenzie that the Blackhawks must move players before finalizing these extensions, or at least Keith's, because of tagging rules that state the team's payroll for next year must conform to the salary cap. Technically, this makes sense, and could be true, but I have not heard any official confirmation of this. Can the Hawks afford to wait until, say, the trading deadline? Sure. Keith has stated in the media in the last two days that he not only wants to remain in Chicago for the rest of his career, but wants to do so under a contract that helps the team keep its core together.
RANDOM SHOTS:
Great road game last night by the Hawks. Big win for Cristobal Huet who is slowly winning over a lot of the doubters.
Anyone else see the highlights of the Blues' win over Tampa Bay? Chris Mason was absolutely amazing, and quietly is having a great season for the Notes.
Unreal goal by Steve Stamkos last night.
Blog favorite Troy "Truck" Brouwer got a nice goal last night, banging away on rebounds in the crease. Number 22 is presently on pace to score 24-25 goals this year.
Kudos to Bryan Bickell. The former #2 draft pick who has all the tools to be an NHL player (size, skating and a big shot) seems to have put it all together and has regained the favor of the organization. Bickell has been a consistent recent call-up from Rockford, over Jack Skille and Jake Dowell, and is getting top line minutes in a power forward role. While he has not been on the scoresheet, Bickell is making his presence felt by constantly going to the net, creating screens, etc.
JJ
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