Welcome to my new series as I stave off the draft talk for a while. Before people get too upset, I’m honestly not trying to troll (ok maybe a little), I’m simply trying to reason why (and by extension why not) each team that has made the playoffs will not win the eternal prize and glory that is our Lord Stanley.
The St. Louis Blues made some of the most impactful and daring additions before the end of the Trade Deadline basically tweaking what was already a well-oiled machine with the most logical upgrades. They added Ryan Miller to finally have that “true number one… that does not require split starts to be effective such as Elliot and Halak plus adding Steve Ott an veteran agitator that could score a goal or two and play on the PK, basically shoring up what was already one of the deepest forward groups in the NHL. All it required was losing Halak which is irrelevant with the addition of Miller, and the much maligned Chris Stewart who has never seen eye to eye with Hitchcock and talented though he might be simply did not fit.
It sounds like a dream right? Well it was, but dreams have a way of turning darker and twisted. We are seeing it now and the Blues who were perhaps THE favourite to win, are now looking extremely beatable. Heck as I sit here writing this Detroit has just scored.
Why will St. Louis not win the Cup? There are two main reasons in my mind.
1. Injuries (Not an excuse, simply a factual deterrent and yes, I understand every team has them)
2. Lack of a “star…
Injuries
Primarily this deals with their forward core, a core that is designed to score by committee has seemingly lost said committee in a slew of unfortunate happenstance. Let’s list those who will likely miss the first round at least or are playing through injury and ineffective. The main problem is that no player has stepped up to replace the losses they are suffering right now. Jaskin and Rattie are solid prospects, but clearly not ready for prime time top-6 action. Paajarvi again has/had potential yet with a shot to cement himself with a larger role he hasn’t done a thing to distinguish himself. And Ott…oh Ott, well, let’s just say he can’t score.
1. Vladimir Tarasenko (21g 22a 43p)
Tarasenko has a broken hand and will miss the first round unless by some miracle he plays through that. The 22 year old was a key feature for the Blues one-two punch of youngsters with Jaden Schwart. He provided 21 goals this year and unless Jaskin or Rattie take some steroids quick, nobody can replace them.
2. T. J. Oshie (21g 39a 60p)
Oshie was recently cleared of symptoms of a concussion and it appears that he escaped without one, which is fantastic news for a player who was having the best season of his young career. He’s still listed having an “upper-body… injury and is being sat out for cautionary reasons. Oshie is a player who plays his heart out and I can see him playing through an injury if they let him. Still that Rupp hit might have taken out their second best point producer…not good. 21g 39a 60p
3. David Backes (27g 30a 57p)
Have no fear Backes will play I think he would play from a wheelchair if need be, however being rested two games after heading to the bench on April 8th with an apparent foot injury is worrisome as Backes will be needed if the Blues are going to fight their way out of this deadly Western Conference. If he is back for the first round…will he be as effective? That can change a series right there.
4. Brendan Morrow (13g 12a 25p)
While not a monumental or game breaking loss, Morrow is representative of that depth that make the Blues so deadly. The 14 season veteran is an excellent player to have on your 3rd or 4th line. He is also being sat out with a “foot… injury that used to be “lower-body.… Morrow is already slow as molasses, if this is a foot problem I can’t imagine him being very effective at all.
5. Patrick Berglund (14g 18a 32p)
Is he actually hurt or is he being rested? That’s something only the Blues organization really know at this point. Listed with an upper-body injury at the moment and if he was to be down that would mean that the top-3 centres on the team are banged up.
6. Vladimir Sobotka (9g 24a 33p)
One of the best face-off men in the game right now, Sobotka is likely to play in the series but is in need of rest. Tough to play against centre depth is the Blues second best attribute in my mind, right after that top-4 defense core. Backes-Berglund-Sobotka-Lappiere is a nasty group for anybody to face. Hopefully he is just getting rested.
Potential Lost Offense : 105g 145a 250p
These are the ones listed as either out or questionable, almost half their bloody forward group and with reason number 2 (no star) compounds the problem of being a team that relies on its depth of scoring when all that depth suddenly disappears. One thing they are fortunate to have is that amazing top-4 defense is still all healthy and they are spectacular…usually.
That being said, injuries are always an excuse that nobody will accept despite the reality of destructive effects they have on a team.
Lack of a “Super Star…
I guess I would argue first that Alex Pietrangelo is a super star, but what I’m getting at here is a super star forward.
To begin the season the Blues were unbeatable; one of the most important reasons was that Alex Steen was playing like if Crosby and Stamkos had a baby. He was unstoppable. The Olympic Break either has hampered him, or gave him enough time away to go back to normal, because right now Steen is very Steen at the moment. A very good player, but not a PPG monster. Even without the injuries, losing his scoring pace is a massive shave off of the Blues scoring.
It can be summed up pretty simply here
Steen before the Olympic Break
46 games 28 goals 19 assists 47 points 7GWG (15%)
Blues Record up to the Olympic Break
55 Games 39W – 14L – 2OTL
Winning Percentage of 72% of their games. Remarkable.
Steen after the Olympic Break
22 games 5 goals 10 assists 15 points 2GWG (9%)
Now that is still solid production and great, but that disparity is huge.
Blues Record after the Olympic Break
24 Games 12W – 11L – 1OTL
Winning Percentage 50%...Not their best to be sure
Now I am not bringing this all on Steen because that would be cruel, unfair and untrue. This is about the difference between having a player playing at an elite level consistently to go with amazing depth, versus having solid depth and no star scorer. Every single Cup winner in the past 7 seasons has had a super star forward or at the very least somebody playing at that level…hell, some teams had multiple.
Chicago : Patrick Kane (This year was more of a team effort to be honest)
Los Angeles : Anze Kopitar and Dustin Brown
Boston : David Krejci
Chicago "One" : Jonathan Toews
Pittsburgh : Evgeni Malkin (One of the best playoff performances of all time) and that Sid guy
Detroit : Henrik Zetterberg
The point is, that every team has had a guy becoming their scoring lynchpin in the playoffs when they win the Cup, sometimes it doesn’t even have to be the best player on the team…regardless somebody needs to have a super star performance. Do the Blues have players that could potential do this? Yes, in my opinion Steen and Backes could be that, will they? Well it isn’t looking so hot right now. Without that, they will not win and I’m convinced of it.
I think the Blues have the depth of scoring, the defense and potentially the goalie to win the Cup, but they miss that catalyst that true contenders have.
Lastly…Miller hasn’t been his Vezina contending self, it has to be said.
So there you go folks, why the Blues won’t win the Cup. Chicago next, and oh how the wolves will howl.