Should the Maple Leafs Trade the First Overall Pick for Connor McDavid? Toronto Has to Ask the Matthew Knies Question
If Connor McDavid is truly available this summer, and some TOP sources are telling me that is becoming more and more likely, the Toronto Maple Leafs HAVE to make the call. Not monitor the situation. Not circle back later. Not wait for another team to set the price. The Leafs MUST make the call. That does not mean the Leafs should empty the organization without limits. It does not mean Edmonton gets to dictate every term simply because the name on the table is the most talented player of his generation. But it does mean Toronto has to recognize the obvious: there are stars, there are franchise players, and then there is Connor McDavid. If that player is actually in play, the normal rules of roster construction change.
The Leafs, holding the first overall pick, have the kind of asset almost no win-now team can offer. . If Edmonton ever got to the point where moving McDavid became a real conversation, Toronto’s first overall pick would have to be the centerpiece. There is no serious version of this deal where the Leafs try to build the offer around quantity, secondary prospects, and protected future picks. Edmonton would hang up, and rightly so.
But the harder question is the one that matters most in Toronto: would Matthew Knies have to be in the deal?
The uncomfortable answer is that he probably would, or at least Edmonton would almost certainly start there. That is not because Knies is expendable. He is not. The reason his name would be central is precisely because he is the kind of player teams do not want to trade. He is young, big, productive, playoff-useful, and already trusted in a market where players are not given endless runway to figure it out. Knies is more than a promising winger now. He is part of what the next version of the Maple Leafs is supposed to be.
And that is exactly why the Oilers would ask for him.
A McDavid trade cannot be built like an ordinary star trade. Edmonton would not be moving a player who simply scores points and fills seats. It would be moving the face of the franchise, the face of the league, and the player around whom every major decision for a decade has been made. Even if the Oilers decided a retool was necessary, they would need a return that does three things at once: a future superstar path, immediate NHL help, and enough emotional cover to explain the move to their fans.
The first overall pick handles the first part. Knies helps handle the second and third.
From Toronto’s perspective, that is the pain point. The Leafs can talk themselves into moving the pick because McDavid is McDavid. They can talk themselves into moving future first-rounders because those picks should be late if McDavid, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, and the rest of the roster are doing what they are supposed to do. They can talk themselves into moving prospects because prospects are uncertain and McDavid is not. But Knies is different. Knies is already here. He already fits. He gives Toronto something it has spent years trying to find: a young power winger with top-six utility who can play with stars rather than simply be carried by them.
That is why the Leafs’ first offer should not include him.
If Toronto is being disciplined, the opening structure should be the first overall pick, a premium prospect, at least one future first-round pick, another significant asset, and whatever salary framework is required to make the deal work. The Leafs should force Edmonton to decide how much it values the top pick. If the Oilers believe the player available at No. 1 is a legitimate franchise reset piece, Toronto can argue that Knies is a bridge too far. The Leafs can try to build the package around the pick, Easton Cowan or another top young asset, future draft capital, and a roster player who helps Edmonton stay competitive.
But that is the negotiation posture, not necessarily the final deal.
If multiple teams are involved, and if McDavid is open to more than one destination, Toronto cannot assume the first overall pick alone wins the prize. Other teams may not have that exact asset, but they may have young NHL centers, elite defencemen, blue-chip prospects, cap flexibility, or cleaner ways to construct a deal. Edmonton would be asking every bidder for the piece that hurts most. With Toronto, that piece is Matthew Knies.
Toronto should try to keep Matthew Knies out of the trade, but it should not let Matthew Knies be the reason Connor McDavid does not become a Maple Leaf.
I know Leaf fans, and I know this will make some people VERY angry, and I get it. . Leafs fans have seen too many futures mortgaged and too many top-heavy rosters run into the same playoff questions. There is a legitimate roster-building argument against turning the Leafs into a fantasy team. McDavid’s cap number would force hard choices. Toronto would still need depth, defence, goaltending, and cheap contributors. Trading Knies removes one of the best internal answers to those problems.
But the counterargument is simple: there is no responsible version of team-building that treats Matthew Knies as the immovable object in a Connor McDavid trade.
Auston Matthews is one of the best goal scorers in hockey history. William Nylander is an elite offensive driver. The Leafs already have star power. But McDavid changes the geometry of a franchise. He changes matchups, power plays, overtime, ticket demand, free-agent conversations, opponent game plans, and the belief inside a dressing room. He would give Toronto the one thing it has never had in this era: the undisputed best player in the world at the moment it is trying to win.
The strongest version of the pro-trade argument is not that Toronto should panic because McDavid might be available. It is that the first overall pick gives the Leafs a rare chance to acquire the best player alive without trading Matthews. Usually, to get a player like McDavid, the acquiring team would have to give up its own franchise center. Toronto may be in a position where the pick can do the heaviest lifting instead.
The strongest version of the anti-trade argument is that the Leafs would be paying for the name while ignoring the roster. If the deal becomes the first overall pick, Knies, Cowan, multiple firsts, and another important roster player, then Toronto has to ask where the support comes from. The Leafs cannot win a Stanley Cup with four stars and a prayer. If Edmonton’s ask becomes so extreme that Toronto is hollowing out six or seven years of flexibility, there is a point where even McDavid becomes too expensive.
That point exists. It is just farther away than it would be for anyone else.
A reasonable Toronto offer might look something like this: the first overall pick, Matthew Knies, a top prospect, a future first-round pick, and the necessary salary components. A more aggressive Edmonton ask might include the first overall pick, Knies, Easton Cowan, two future firsts, and another roster player. That second version is where Toronto would have to push back hard. Not because McDavid is not worth a monster package, but because the Leafs would still need to ice a championship-calibre team after the press conference ends.
If the Leafs could land McDavid while keeping Knies, that is the dream outcome. The offer would need to compensate Edmonton elsewhere with more draft capital, a better prospect, fewer protections, or a young NHL player the Oilers value. But if Edmonton’s final position is that Knies must be included, Toronto’s answer should not be an automatic no. It should be a long meeting, a serious look at the next three playoff runs, and then probably a yes if the rest of the package remains survivable.
That is the key word: survivable.
The Leafs cannot make a McDavid trade that leaves them with no wingers, no pipeline, no picks, and no way to improve the blue line. But they also cannot be so protective of balance that they miss the chance to add a player who breaks balance in their favour. Championships are often won by depth, but they are made possible by players who tilt the sport. McDavid tilts it more than anyone.
For Edmonton, the trade only makes sense if it receives a return that allows the organization to say it did not simply get smaller. The first overall pick would give the Oilers the headline. Knies would give them the immediate player. The futures would give them the runway. That is why his name is unavoidable.
For Toronto, the question is not whether Knies is valuable enough to protect. Of course he is. The question is whether he is valuable enough to stop the Leafs from acquiring Connor McDavid. He is not.
That does not mean the Leafs should throw him into the first offer. They should make Edmonton ask. They should use the first overall pick as the foundation and dare the Oilers to find a better centerpiece elsewhere. But if this becomes real, if McDavid is genuinely willing to come to Toronto, and if the difference between getting him and watching him go somewhere else is Matthew Knies, then the Leafs have to do the painful thing.
Retooling is one thing. Connor McDavid becoming available is another. Retooling is about improving your odds. McDavid is about changing the equation. And if the Leafs have the first overall pick and a real path to get him, they cannot let the deal die because they were too attached to the second-best asset in the package.