UFA2B: Alex Tuch The Most Wanted Winger on the Market — But Will Buffalo Pay?
Who Is He?
Alex Tuch is a 6'4", 218-pound right wing from Syracuse, New York...a first-round pick (18th overall) out of Boston College who was traded to Vegas, became a foundational Golden Knight, and was then dealt to Buffalo in November 2021 as the centerpiece of the Jack Eichel blockbuster. Since arriving in Buffalo, Tuch has transformed from complementary piece into one of the most complete power forwards in the game. He has been the identity of this Sabres team that finally landed back in the playoffs.
Now 30 years old, Tuch is one of the top unrestricted free agents in the 2026 market. Whether he stays in Buffalo or forces the Sabres' hand on July 1 is the one most pressing question of this NHL offseason.
The Season
Tuch's 2025-26 campaign: 79 GP | 33 G | 33 A | 66 PTS | +24. The +24 was a career high and one of the best marks among all NHL forwards this season. He averaged 19:00 of ice time per game, playing in all situations...offensive zone, defensive zone, power play, and penalty kill. His 5v5 GF% of 61.7% means the Sabres outscored opponents by a massive margin when he was on the ice at even strength. He was a Selke Trophy candidate the season prior, logging 6 shorthanded goals in 2024-25.
In the playoffs, Tuch was dominant in Round 1 against Boston — 4 goals, 7 points in 6 games — before going pointless in seven against Montreal. He owned the second-round disappearance publicly at his exit availability, refusing to hide behind the undisclosed injuries he was playing through. His agent, Scott Bartlett, responded simply: "I guarantee you it doesn't change a single thing as far as how he's viewed across the market."
Teammate Tage Thompson put it best after the Game 7 loss: "He drives the bus for us. Guys in this room look to him. He's vocal. He plays the game the right way." That's the player Buffalo is trying to keep...and the player every team in the league with cap space will be calling on July 1.
He's been on a 7-year, $33.25M deal signed in 2018 with Vegas — an AAV of $4.75M that has aged into one of the most team-friendly contracts in the entire league. He's worth two to three times that number right now. The correction is coming.
The Comparables
Adrian Kempe — LA Kings
8 years | $10,625,000 AAV | Signed November 2025
This is the comp Tuch's camp has specifically cited. Kempe was 29 at signing, one year younger than Tuch is now. He posted 35 goals and 75 points in 2024-25... comparable offensive output to Tuch. What Kempe doesn't bring that Tuch does: elite penalty kill deployment, shorthanded goal production, and Selke-caliber defensive play. If Kempe is worth $10.625M, the argument for Tuch landing at the same number or just above it is sound.
Mark Scheifele — Winnipeg Jets
8 years | $8,500,000 AAV | Signed 2022
Scheifele is a center — a position that commands a premium — but the structure of his deal is instructive. Signed at 29, team-friendly at the time, it looks better as the cap rises. Some Sabres fans hope Jarmo Kekäläinen can thread a similar needle with Tuch. Based on the current market? That needle isn't getting threaded anywhere close to $8.5M.
Artemi Panarin — New York Rangers
7 years | $11,642,857 AAV | Signed 2019
Panarin is a perennial 90-point scorer, so this isn't a perfect match on the offensive end...but the structure is going to be used I am told.... Elite wingers who change the entire dynamic of a franchise have always commanded 10-12% of the cap. Tuch isn't Panarin offensively, but he brings something Panarin never offered: two-way dominance, physical presence, and leadership that shapes a locker room.
Vladimir Tarasenko — Various Teams (Late Career)
Multiple short-term deals | $7.5M–$9.5M range
Tarasenko's post-30 arc is the cautionary tale here for both sides. Teams grew reluctant to give maximum term as injury history stacked up. If Tuch's camp is seeking 7-8 years, they'll encounter resistance from clubs conscious of paying elite money to a 36 or 37-year-old winger. This dynamic is almost certainly part of why the Sabres' initial offer...reported to have started with an 8...fell well short of Tuch's ask.
The Contract Projection
The 2026-27 salary cap is confirmed at $104 million, up from $95.5M this season. Based on the comparables and the current market, Tuch's next deal should look like this:
Projected: 7 years | $10.5M – $11M AAV
At $10.5M, Tuch's cap percentage would be approximately 10.1% of the 2026-27 cap... fair market value for the best wing available
The Buffalo Dilemma
The Sabres enter the offseason with roughly $12.9 million in projected cap space — 25th in the league — before addressing two critical RFAs and other roster needs:
- Zach Benson (RFA): Coming off a breakout season; analytics models project $6.5M–$7M AAV on a long-term deal
- Peyton Krebs (UFA): Depth center; likely commands $3M–$4M on the open market
If Benson gets $7M and Krebs gets $3.5M, the Sabres are already $10.5M committed before Tuch enters the conversation. With the cap rising to $104M, Kekäläinen has some flexibility to work with...but he will need to be precise.
Here is the cold reality: re-signing Tuch is almost certainly cheaper than replacing him. This UFA class is thin. There is no second Tuch waiting in the wings of the open market. The next tier of available wingers drops off significantly in terms of two-way play, physicality, and playoff-tested leadership. Letting him walk to save $2M in annual cap space would be one of the most self-defeating decisions a Sabres regime has ever made...and that is a high bar to clear.
Teams That Could Be Interested
Should Tuch reach July 1, the market will be real.
New York Rangers (~$26.8M cap space) are the most credible outside threat. GM Chris Drury has spoken openly about a retool and needs a winger who can play heavy minutes in all situations. Tuch fits the profile perfectly — physical enough to drive a line, defensively responsible enough to be trusted in the third period of close games, and experienced enough to mentor a young group that includes Gabe Perreault. New York has the cap room to make a competitive offer without sacrificing other priorities.
Pittsburgh Penguins (~$42M cap space) present an intriguing wild card. Sidney Crosby is 38 and still performing at an elite level. GM Kyle Dubas, after a surprise playoff push in 2025-26, faces a genuine fork in the road: commit to Crosby's final chapter or continue the rebuild. Adding Tuch alongside 87 on a top line is a compelling argument, and Pittsburgh has more than enough money to do it.
Chicago Blackhawks (~$40M+ cap space) need to get Connor Bedard help. Tuch is the kind of veteran presence that accelerates a young franchise's development, and Chicago could overpay to make it happen. The lack of a contending environment is the biggest obstacle.
The Bottom Line
Alex Tuch has earned every dollar of what's coming. The comparables support it, the cap trajectory supports it, and his play...on both ends of the ice, in all situations, night after night...supports it. He is one of the most complete power forwards in the NHL, and he has been doing it at $4.75 million a year.
Buffalo should make him an offer north of $10M. I believe they will eventually get there. Whether the gap between what the books allow and what the market demands gets bridged before July 1...or whether Tuch takes his "endless options" and cashes out on the open market...is the defining question of the Sabres' offseason. Jarmo is in his first full offseason as GM in Buffalo. How he handles the Tuch negotiation will define the tone of his tenure.
If he leaves, it won't be because he wanted to. It will be because the number wasn't there.
Projected AAV: $10.5M – $11M | Projected Term: 7 years Most Likely Destination: Buffalo Sabres (if the number gets done) | New York Rangers (if it doesn't)
UFA2B is a series examining the top pending unrestricted free agents, their value, their market, and what their next deal should look like.