No matter how you slice it, the Colorado Avalanche have a problem that most teams would love to have; high quality depth down the middle.
With two of their younger star centremen up for contracts, the Avalanche will need to do their best to lock up both Paul Stastny (UFA) before July 1st, and Ryan O’Reilly (RFA) sooner than later. It has been recently reported that Colorado will take O’Reilly to salary arbitration as it buys the team more time to try and focus on Stastny who they could lose to free agency if not signed.
The team has nearly $26M available in cap space going into the 2014-15 NHL season and all things considered, shouldn’t have too much problem signing these two players. That said, I would like to offer a different point of view because to me, I can foresee an issue or two for the Avs as they look to lock these guys up. And let me be clear, I fully understand that O’Reilly can and has played on the wing as well.
Firstly, it is well known that Colorado has internal budgets to deal with. While they may have up to $26M in cap space, they haven’t been known to spend up to the cap.
Secondly, their current depth is very nice and will certainly pay dividends down the road, but I have a hard time believing that a team will be able to sign Nathan MacKinnon, Ryan O’Reilly, Paul Stastny, and Matt Duchene to big dollar contracts, and leave themselves with enough cap to address other needs. While each player offers a slightly different strength to their overall game, they are all centremen who are hot commodities league wide and could be used to round out the overall team strength.
With that, it is of my opinion that the Avalanche will look into moving/letting go one of these players. This is where teams like the Calgary Flames come in. There is no doubt that many if not most teams are calling frequently to inquire about the negotiations with O’Reilly and whether he could be made available.
If, for whatever reason the Avalanche continues to reject his $6.5M salary demand (or thereabouts), we may see a team or two offer sheet the young forward given his raw potential and skill set. With that comes the question – is it worth it for the Flames(or any other team) to acquire a guy like Ryan O’Reilly via offer sheet, which would cost the organization a 1st round, 2nd round, and 3rd round draft selection?
For Calgary, this is a tough question given how high they are expected to draft. That said, we have all discussed the success rates of players drafted outside of the top 10 each given year, so it would really come down to the first round pick, at least for me.
Heck, we even went as far to prove that outside of the top 5 the success rate isn’t that “great… on average. With that, could there be a legitimate interest from the team to toss three draft picks to the Avalanche for a forward of his ilk?
Personally, I say yes. This is a highly gifted player who, in my opinion, is worth the loss of the draft picks. He is 23 years old, will help the Flames with their rebuild but also keep them competitive while doing so.
It is certainly a tough decision to make for a team who is in the 2nd year of their rebuild, but this player will be a vital piece to the team who locks him up long terms, and if the Avalanche find a way to sign all four of the abovementioned players, that team is going to be nasty to play against.
What are your thoughts? Calgary has done it once, should they try again?
Thanks for reading!