WildHBcommunity: MNWild Free Agency Problematic for Fletcher’s Priorities
The completion of the 2013-14 NHL season is nearly upon us as Stanley Cup Finals beginning this week. The more I think about this past season for the Minnesota Wild, the less likely I think it is to expect a long term large money contract with any of the current unrestricted free agents this summer. The Wild have been most frequently connected to Thomas Vanek and Matt Niskanen because both players have strong ties to Minnesota and are widely considered to be the top players available this summer at their respective positions.
I believe for Vanek or Niskanen to continue their NHL careers here in Minnesota it will come at the expense of salary and term of contract elsewhere. Both players would be an upgrade to the roster immediately but long term consequences on the young core general manager Chuck Fletcher has worked hard to acquire might eliminate both from consideration.
With Vanek a case could be made that he has banked a bunch of money already in his NHL career to this point so joining his friend and former linemate Jason Pominville here in Minnesota could create a scenario in which he and Fletcher work it out. Vanek originally from Austria played his college hockey at the University of Minnesota, he makes his offseason home in Stillwater, and his wife is a native of the State of Hockey.
Before the 2013-14 NHL regular season began I was firm in my belief Vanek would sign with the Wild in July and now I would give it about a 40% chance. What a difference a year makes right?
The crux of the issue with Vanek is at 30 years of age his production as a goal scorer in the next 3-5 years could mirror that of Dany Heatley or Jarome Ignila. Having just crawled out from under the last year of $7.5 million dollar cap hit on Heatley, apprehension from the Wild fanbase regarding the possibility of Vanek is not unwarranted. I will say though that in 3 NHL stops this season Vanek scored goals (27) for each of the Buffalo Sabres (4), New York Islanders (17), and Montreal Canadians (6).
I could see Vanek slotting in on a line with Pominville center by Mikael Granlund for next season the and possibly the next 3-5 seasons but that will only be possible if Fletcher can come to terms with the winger on a deal that doesn’t jeopardize retaining the Wild’s young core going forward. For Vanek to join the Wild this July I think he would have to agree to a 3-5 year deal with cap hit $5.5-$6 million dollars.
Will Vanek leave a deal similar to the Islanders previous offer of 7yrs/$50Mil on the table because returning to Minnesota is just that important?
Fletcher has stated he intends to protect his ability to re-sign his young core of which he has to come to terms with 3 restricted free agents forwards currently on the NHL roster in Nino Niederreiter, Jason Zucker, and Justin Fontaine this summer. Next summer Mikael Granlund, Charlie Coyle, Erik Haula, Jonas Brodin, Marco Scandella, and Christian Folin will all be restricted free agents.
In the case of Niskanen I view his free agent destination to be determined by the highest bidder for his services on a long term deal. For Niskanen this will be his first opportunity to leverage a lucrative long term deal. Niskanen is becoming an unrestricted free agent after signing back to back bridge deals the first worth $3Mil total over 2years and the latest $4.5 total over 2 years. Niskanen just 27 years old successfully gambled on himself and is on the verge of reaping the rewards financially.
Niskanen has estimated career earnings of just over $9 million dollars while Vanek has earned over $51 million thus far in his career. There will be no hometown discount in the case of the former University of Minnesota-Duluth defenseman. Niskanen is a solid NHL player who during his contract year produced the type of numbers to catch lightning in a bottle. I don’t want to rain on his parade so I will just say I hope he continues to get better and better but someone team is going to pay him to be their #1 defenseman and it will not be the Wild.
The Wild currently has 4 defensemen under contract on one way deals for next season in Ryan Suter, Jared Spurgeon, Marco Scandella, and Keith Ballard. Additionally Jonas Brodin and Christian Folin are on two way deals but I doubt they spend much if any time in the AHL next season and before becoming restricted free agents next summer. The Wild have Nate Prosser and Clayton Stoner as unrestricted free agents and Jon Blum as a restricted free agent. That trio plus Ballard could all be gone from the organization this summer. Stoner and Prosser could sign elsewhere and I dont think Blum is going to get a one way deal. Ballard could be bought out or traded after a lackluster return to Minnesota.
For Niskanen or any of the other unrestricted defenders to be in the equation on a long term free agent deal in my opinion it would mean that Fletcher had include one his current 20-something NHL defenders in a major deal at the NHL Draft in the end of June before free agency in July. The Wild will have at their disposal their top two defensemen prospects Mathew Dumba and Gustav Olofsson either on the NHL roster or in Iowa of the AHL which will surely factor into their approach to free agency.
I like Vanek probably more than a majority of others do because I have always tied him to the Pominville trade and subsequent re-signing. I honestly believe all the doubt and negativity swirling around Vanek right now plays perfectly into Fletcher’s hands if the winger is a part of his off season plans.
The reality is Fletcher is not going to be able to keep his entire young core intact so he will have to make a clear choice either this offseason or next year about who stays here for the long haul and who gets included in a swing for the fences package deal. That is why I wrote about Fletcher’s draft day trade history because we could be on the verge on a major game changing deal involving some of the player in the young core and eliminating the need to participate in the unrestricted free agent market this July.
I think the names floating around in my head since even before the trading deadline line this year have been Ryan Kesler, Evander Kane, Bobby Ryan, Jeff Skinner, Dustin Byfuglien, Jake Gardiner, Jared Tinordi, Tyler Myers, and Seth Jones. Just floating out some names I have NO inside sources and I don’t personally generate rumors.
My overall point on the trade front for Fletcher is to acquire a major piece that could give this thing he has built a boost it is going to mean giving up a player that will create a stir with the fanbase and be a risk whether that player is Zucker or Coyle or Dumba or Haula, it will not be an easy to trust thing like the Pominville deal or maybe better yet the Torrey Mitchell and 2 2nd round picks for a peek at Matthew Moulson who is gone now.
It could very well be the case that the NHL Draft comes and goes quietly for Fletcher and the Wild without any substantial trade or defining move that determines which way they will put into motion their offseason plan. I have seen it mentioned elsewhere and I think it is very relevant to consider that maybe a bridge year veteran is the way to go via free agency to add a scorer and supplement the young defensive corps.
It is very reasonable to think that Fletcher could emerge from the Wild’s front office organizational meetings that begin June 6th, and come away with a plan that will save a huge chunk of cap space to sign the young players in the next two years and just add veteran one year deal type free agents to supplement the roster.
Just My Take, Tony Dean Follow Me on Twitter @TonyDeanTHW Also Like the WildHBcommunity of FaceBook here: WildHBCommunity on FaceBook