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We are on the eve of embarking on another exciting Stanley Cup Playoff. If you have been reading this blog the entire year you probably have a decent background of information about the Penguins.
What you might not have is a handle on who the Columbus Blue Jackets are. Today we peel back some of the layers and learn about the Penguins enemy for round 1.
Possession
First thing I like to do when trying to learn about a team is to look at their Fenclose%. I believe it is a great starting point. After you see how often a team has the puck you can start to dissect the reasons on why they have it, or why they don’t.
Why does Fenclose% matter?
It’s pretty clear that there is a trend there.
The Blue Jackets currently sit in 12th overall with a Fenclose % of 50.8%. That number might not stack up great against some of the former Cup champions on the list above but I find it impressive considering how Columbus started the season. The Blue Jackets have been trending in the right direction for a while now:
The Blue Jackets are a competent puck possession team. Not great, but not terrible.
Luck
Sometimes certain teams can be the benefactors of having really good luck the entire season. Some teams that come to mind from this season are the Ducks, Avalanche, and Leafs. These are teams that have average to below average possession but incredibly high PDO numbers, that is usually not a sustainable recipe for success. It didn't work for the Maple Leafs and it will most likely be not be a good recipe for Anaheim or Colorado.
The Blue Jackets are who they are. They did not benefit from incredibly good luck and they haven’t been buried by incredibly bad luck like the Devils and Panthers were this year.
Here is the Blue Jackets PDO chart
Teams that are slightly above average in possession and have a normal PDO rating are usually very solid hockey teams. Columbus fits the bill in this regard.
Special Teams
What do special teams tell us about the Blue Jackets?
The Jackets are a very respectable 11th overall in the NHL with a success rate of 19.3% on the power play. However, during the season series against the Penguins the Blue Jackets are only 1 for 14 on the power play against the Penguins (h/t @jmarshfof)
Given those numbers and the fact the Penguins boast the #5 overall PK units in the NHL at 85.0% you might think this is a mismatch. Since the Olympic break the Penguins haven’t exactly been amongst the league’s best on the PK. They have killed off 62 out of the last 77 penalties for a success rate of 82.6%. In the last 2 games to close out the regular season the Penguins only killed off 4 out of their 7 times shorthanded. Many of the goals have been a result of the Penguins not marking up a forward right in front of Marc Andre Fleury.
Also worth noting is that Marc Andre Fleury’s shorthanded save percentage is currently at .911%, which is still good, but a far cry from his .936% earlier in the year.
The Blue Jackets rank 14th overall on the penalty kill this season at 82.6%. The Penguins are the #1 ranked power play in the league. This is where there will be a huge mismatch.
The Penguins can do damage on the power play on any given night and in their sample size against Columbus this season they have done their share of damage. The Penguins have gone 5 for 17 against the Jackets this year on the power play (once again h/t @jmarshfof).
Even Strength
Matchups, matchups, matchups. The playoffs are all about matchups. So who do the Blue Jackets have on their team and how does their coach utilize them on the ice?
Here is the usage chart for the Blue Jackets forwards
Noteworthy is the upper left hand corner. These are the forwards that Todd Richards trusts to carry the tough assignments. Included in this group are Brandon Dubinsky, RJ Umberger, and Ryan Johansen. Given that Ryan Johansen had an offensive breakout year with 33 goals, it is all the more impressive that he did so in a shutdown role.
When the Penguins are on home ice Dan Bylsma will have to make a decision on if he trusts his 3rd line to play against Ryan Johansen. If the 3rd line can hold their own this could free up the Crosby line for a more favorable matchup. Bylsma could also just use the Crosby line to bury the Johansen line and let Malkin’s unit clean up the trash.
Worth noting is that RJ Umberger and Nick Foligno will be missing game 1 with injury.
Here is the deployment of the Blue Jackets defense corp:
Todd Richards trusts Jack Johnson in the shutdown role. If you are Dan Bylsma you are very excited to see that. The more Johnson plays against Crosby and Malkin, the more good things that are going to happen for the Penguins. Both Johnson and Nick Schultz play the tough minutes but are not wildly successful at it. Fedor Tyutin also shares some of the hard minutes but he seems to do better as shown by his smaller red circle (big red circles bad, blue good).
I don't think Dan Bylsma needs to worry too much on how he deploys his players based on who the Blue Jackets have on defense. The real chess match will be how he utilizes his players against certain Blue Jackets forwards.
Edit: Nick Schultz is practicing on 4th pairing, most likely a scratch. Johnson and Tyutin are a pair.
Goaltending
The Blue jackets have one of the better goaltenders in the NHL. Sergei Bobrovsky is the reigning Vezina Trophy winner and he was the major catalyst on why the Blue Jackets were even in the playoff discussion last year. Bobrovsky propped up a team that was not as good as their record was. It was an incredible performance by the Russian netminder.
Out of goaltenders that have played in at least 1500 minutes of even strength hockey this year Bobrovsky ranks 6th overall in EVSV% with .933%. That is very good. Only Ben Bishop, Anton Khudobin, Semyon Varlamov, Carey Price, and Tuukka Rask were better. In contrast Marc Andre Fleury sits at .919%.
Players to watch
Ryan Johansen
The kid had a great season. His 33 goals and 63 points make him far and away the offensive leader of this Blue Jackets team. He’s in his 3rd NHL season and he is going to have to carry the offense and the defensive responsibilities for Columbus, is he up for it? The deck is stacked against him given the combo of Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin on the other side
Brandon Dubinsky
Dubinsky is the Blue Jackets 2nd leading scorer amongst forwards with 50 points but this isn’t where he can do his most damage. Can Brandon Dubinsky play the Scott Hartnell role for Columbus and get underneath the skin of Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and James Neal? If he can, the Blue Jackets could follow the Flyers blue print for success against the Penguins.
Sergei Bobrovsky
If Sergei Bobrovsky can channel his inner Tuukka Rask and stops 134 out of 136 shots against the Penguins (like Rask did last year) then the Blue Jackets stand a great chance to win the series. Unfortunately for Bobrovsky is that he does not have the Boston Bruins team in front of him to assist in that task.
At a minimum Bobrovsky will have to probably have an EVSV% of at least .940% to give the Jackets a chance in this series. Bobrovsky can’t be average, if he is then Columbus is cooked.
Those are your 2013-2014 Columbus Blue Jackets. Playoffs kick off tomorrow, it should be great.
Thanks for reading!
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