Tonight the Oilers square off against an opponent who just last year actually finished the season behind them in the standings. Today the Avalanche are sitting pretty with 107 points and 50 wins on the year, looking to add to that total. Like the Oilers the Avs sat near the bottom of the league for several years collecting quality young players like Mackinnon and Landeskog. Unlike Edmonton they went out and settled their issues in net earlier on in their process of rebuilding and now are riding Varlamov to great success.
One of the benefits of having a great year by your starting goalie is that it can cover up a lot of deficiencies in your game. It is the most important position bar none and while Edmonton was made to look like fools with Dubnyk in net the opposite has been happening in Colorado. But is it all smoke and mirrors in Denver?
Well, astute commenter Romulus’ Apotheosis (@RomulusNotNuma) started pointing out a few metrics that might lead one to believe that yes, indeed, the Avs aren’t as good as their record suggests and are largely the product of some great goaltending.
Let’s start with some basic possession metrics like Corsi%. At even strength the Avs are 25th in the NHL at 46.9% ahead of only Montreal, Calgary, Edmonton, Buffalo, and Toronto. This is an Avs team that is spending an inordinate amount of time in their own zone. In just raw Corsi events (shots, missed shots, and blocks) they have had 3595 against. To put that in perspective the Oilers are notorious for spending time in their own zone but only have 75 more shot attempts against on the season.
Shorthanded the Avs are ranked 24th in the league for Corsi%, so it isn’t as if they are running a great system on the PK that is preventing the other teams from getting their chances. And the Power Play is 17th in the same metric. In fact, in raw shot attempts for, the Avs are 28th in the NHL. The Special Teams aren’t driving their success, at least not structurally.
So how is this team so successful if they spend more than half the game in their own zone and are in the bottom 3rd in the league for a lot of possession metrics? The answer is percentages. They are riding some great percentages this year. Some of that is skill, a lot of that is dumb luck.
Let’s start again with their Even Strength play. The Avs are shooting 8.8% as a team which is good for 2nd in the NHL. This is a stat that varies from year to year and shouldn’t be counted on to last in the future. Even if the Avs were shooting a league average 7.76% they would have scored 20 fewer goals at even strength. More importantly though, the Avs at even strength are getting all the saves. Their goaltenders (mostly Varly) are giving them a 93.06 sv%, good for 4th in the NHL. The fact that they are getting beat down in shot attempts is being covered up spectacularly. Again, with league average goaltending they would have given up 11 more goals at even strength.
On Special teams it’s the same story. Colorado’s shooting percentage is 9th in the NHL on the man advantage. And the story about great goaltending at Evens applies to when they are shorthanded as well. Varlamov and company have the Avs sitting 6th in 4v5 save percentage at 89.71%.
So are the Avs Smoke and Mirrors? Well if they aren’t then I expect next year we start to see their underlying numbers take a drastic upswing. Otherwise they are poised for a painful regression. At even strength alone this is a team that would be -11 in Goal Differential with just getting league average numbers.
LINEUPS
I haven’t heard much as to the changes to the lineup so I’m assuming it will be largely the same except with Scrivens in net.
Hall RNH Eberle Perron Gagner Lander Pinizzotto Gordon Smyth Hendricks Acton Larsen
Marincin Petry Klefbom Schultz Fraser Belov
Scrivens
OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME
1) Play A Strong Possession Game. As we outlined above this is a team that will let you spend time in their zone. Their goalies are saving their bacon but at least tonight the Oil face the backup (who is still darned good)
2) Stay Nasty. I like the old school feel of that Ducks series and I think the Oil should stick with it. Edmonton can feel free to make it difficult to play at Rexall. I want that to be largely because teams get outscored there, but a few extra bruises for the opposing team to deal with wont hurt either.
3) Get The Crowd Going Early. Oiler fans are desperate for reasons to cheer. It’s fan appreciation night. Get them on your side early, they deserve it.
Puck drops tonight at 7:38PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet. Game On!
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