Something is different with the Winnipeg Jets that much is sure but what 'it' is causes some discussion if not outright debate. Is it coach Paul Maurice getting through to the team? Is it a goalie tandem that has worked hard to improve techniques? Is it a defense playing better in front of the goalie? Or is it player usage across the board?
There are a compelling number or reasons to think it's a little of each of the above and that is the secret recipe which has given the Winnipeg Jets a 6-0-2 record the last 8 games versus the 2-5 record the first 7. After 15 games the Jets are 7th in the western conference and in the top 3 in the central division, above a wild card spot. They are even 15th in the league, far better than anyone, including yours truly expected.
It's time for the team and fans to bask in the glow of success at least for a little bit. The real question after all the good news is can this team sustain it? No team in this league in this era can sustain 6-0-2 play long term so forget that likelihood every happening. But if you take the overall record of 8-5-2 the Jets are on pace for 98 points and a probably playoff spot if they continue winning at .600 pace and wouldn't that be nice.
So which team is it, 2-5 or 6-0-2? If you saw my series of Tweets today you will see that you can divide the season in two by the record listed above.
During the 2-5 stretch had a PDO (a stat that measures luck) of 95.36 and a shooting percentage of 7.82%. In those first 7 games their SA (shots against) rate per 60 minutes of play was 27.15 and the SF(shots for) rate was 28.01 per 60 minutes played. During the last 8 games the SA rates is 28.55 and the SF rate is 27.95 and the Jets shooting percentage DROPPED to 6.38% in those 8 games. The Jets production and defense declined marginally and the team had better results, can this possibly be sustainable?
Is this all on St. Paul Maurice, the patron saint of coaching, or is it because any coach with a half decent pedigree could fix the hot mess that Claude Noel left behind? Once again probably a bit of both possibilities are at play but that does not explain shooting percentage does it?
The bigger point here is that there is a marked turn for this team, from a .285 points percentage to just over .875! That's huge, a massive wild swing to the far side of the pendulum- the apex perhaps. There are still a lot of questions to be answered and those answers aren't here, we need more time, more samples and more observation. If the Jets are different, better, improved we simply need to see more of the same to say this team can sustain itself at this pace.
One thing that is different is Evander Kane and his 1 goal. He's a streaky scorer and after that break away goal against Pittsburgh many felt the shackles of a scoring slump were released and he would start hitting the twine, it hasn't happened at least after one game. Once again too soon to say with any certainty as to what that means. However, there is something different.
The smart Travis Hrubeniuk posted This cool graph today on Twitter and it could say all you need to know about Kane and production. He's a shutdown forward trusted by Maurice in many situations that few others are. Bryan Little has played this role as has Michael Frolik and the artist formerly known as Burmi, but Kane is dominating at it, at least in time spent.
When Kane is on the ice the oppostion is only scoring at 1.86 goals per 60 minutes played. The only other Jets below 2 is Byfuglien...hey wait, (that's another subject). Only Mark Stuart has less starts in the offensive zone than Kane at 27.1% and no player on the Jets is even close to Kane's 43.5% defensive zone face off starts.
This is a stark contrast to his 30 goal season in 2011-12 where his GA/60 was 2.42 and his defensive zone starts 25.5% of the time- that is a swing of 50%!!!!! His offensive zone starts in 2011-12 were 35.1% an almost 30% increase over his current pace.
If Kane is the most offensively gifted player on the team and many would suggest he is based on his salary and reputation it might be clear what way Maurice wants this team to play- defense first. The other thing is this- if the malcontent that Kane was portrayed to be has bought in, (and clearly he has based on results) what does that say? Probably a bit of everything in regards to the questions posed at the beginning of this column.
One thing for sure is Jets fans should not be discounting the impact of Evander Kane for this team. He may be the biggest reason why they have had so much success with their recent defensive turn around and isn't that saying something?